Who Is Kim Jong Eun?
Who is Kim Jong Eun? A year after he was appointed his father's heir, we still know little about him. The regime hasn't even released his age, which is believed to be somewhere in the late 20s. Next year is the 100th anniversary of his grandfather's birth, and some observers speculate that there will be an announcement that Baby Kim is 30 years old -- exactly 70 years younger than Kim Il Sung -- as a way of tying the young Kim more closely to the country's founder. Such manipulation of the facts is not uncommon in North Korea. The late Kim Jong Il was said to have been born under a double rainbow on the sacred Mount Paektu when in fact his birthplace was a town in Siberia, where his revolutionary father was working with the Soviet Army.
A bio of Kim Jong Il is often included in "propaganda" material sent into North Korea from the outside. It's in the leaflets dropped by balloons that the wind has carried north from South Korea. It's broadcast on the defector-run radio stations in Seoul that beam several hours of shows a day to the North. The truth about Kim Jong Il's birth is one of the things that amaze North Koreans when they hear it. They recognize instantly that their rulers have been lying to them for years. It is shocking to them to find out the truth.
North Koreans who have fled their country bring out stories about how young Kim Jong Eun is mocked and disliked. Is that baby face for real? Or did he have plastic surgery to make him look like Kim Il Sung? And that's quite a paunch in one so young, especially in a country where millions go to bed hungry at night. He's widely perceived as green and untested. And he has a reputation as a brute.
Even so, North Koreans know how to play the game. The new rage in hair styles for young men in Pyongyang these days is the slickback -- just like Kim Jong Eun's.
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Re: Who Is Kim Jong Eun?
Thanks for joining us, Melanie. I've got two questions -- 1. Is there any indication that KJ Eun has had enough time to solidify his power position in the leadership? KJ Il was apprenticed for a long time during KI Sun's latter years, and used it to secure his place. Has KJ Eun done the same thing? Has he had time? And if not, is the uncertainty in the leadership right now an opportunity for us? 2. How can we tell if there's a fissure in the otherwise seamless and opaque ruling class in Northe Korea? Assuming for a moment that there's a non-insane realist general around there somewhere, how would we reach him? Or will it be the Chinese who eventually usher in real leadership change?
May '10
Re: Who Is Kim Jong Eun?
So it's officially "Eun"? Up till now I've seen it written "Un".
And how the heck do you pronounce "Eun"? Rhymes with "done" or "moon"??
Re: Who Is Kim Jong Eun?
Rob raises an important point about Baby Kim's power base. Unlike his father, who was officially named the heir apparent years before his father's death, KJ Eun got the job only a year ago. The speculation is that two old-timers are whispering into his ear and advising him closely: Kim Jong Il's sister and her husband, who is the country's deputy leader. Both are longtime power brokers and may be the power behind KJ Eun's throne. No one knows a lot about either person, and I don't know of any American, or Westerner, who has any sort of personal relationship with them. China is the most important player here. It supplies a huge percentage of NK's fuel and also supplies food. Even so, it did not seem to have a lot of influence with KJI, who routinely defied them. For example, he'd go to China and say positive things about China's economic opening and then go home and crack down on the little markets that had sprung up.
Re: Who Is Kim Jong Eun?
What are the things we should be looking for to detect the new -- if it's new -- direction in North Korea? Are there signs? Will it come from the Chinese? From our vantage point, what will the signs be? KJ Eun in staged photographs looking commanding?
Jun '10
Re: Who Is Kim Jong Eun?
I was born under a double rainbow in the holy city of Salina, Utah in 1951. And I still have to pay to be a member of Ricochet.
Melanie: This is actually a semi-serious question. The military hats of NK generals make them look like doormen in Las Vegas. Any idea why they rise so high from the brim. Is it to make them look taller? Also, each person in NK group pictures with whatever Kim is currently in power appears to be doing his best to maintain a vacant look in his eyes. What's that all about? Not to upstage the boss?
It's a truly mysterious society. Can't wait for your book. When can we expect it?
Edited on Dec 20, 2011 at 9:22amRe: Who Is Kim Jong Eun?
Wow, Melanie...we've got you on Ricochet on the day you have an article in the Wall Street Journal! Though you caution that it would be folly to be overly optimistic, the fact North Koreans are beginning to openly question and express dissatisfaction with the Kim family dynasty seems like the first necessary crack in the Kim totalitarian stranglehold.
May '10
Re: Who Is Kim Jong Eun?
Ms. Kirkpatrick:
I like to understand boundary scenarios, and work my way in from there. I suppose in this case, the realistic worst case scenario is some provocation with South Korea that results in a China-backed regional war, nuclear or otherwise.
The realistic best case scenario is probably a Chinese-style economic transformation, which we could hope might eventually result in normalized relations with South Korea and general political freedoms.
And, of course, there are a slew of possibilities in between.
My questions:
1. What probability would you assign to each of the above two scenarios, given everything you know right now?
2. What alternative scenarios, best and worst, would you propose?
Edited on Dec 20, 2011 at 9:48amRe: Who Is Kim Jong Eun?
Welcome, Melanie!
My question? Baby Kim's big tummy.
Starvation is a recurring problem in North Korea, and in all the photos we've seen even the generals standing next to the Great Successor look as though they're subsisting on fewer daily calories than they could use. Wouldn't you have expected Baby Kim to slim down, demonstrating solidarity with his people? Or does it work just the other way around? Does he girth prove to the masses that, since he's the only fat man in the country, he must be the one with ultimate power?
Dec '11
Re: Who Is Kim Jong Eun?
Diane Ellis, Ed.: Wow, Melanie...we've got you on Ricochet on the day you have an article in the Wall Street Journal! Though you caution that it would be folly to be overly optimistic, the fact North Koreans are beginning to openly question and express dissatisfaction with the Kim family dynasty seems like the first necessary crack in the Kim totalitarian stranglehold.
Dec 20 at 9:15am
I abbreviated it a bit, but I think that the possibility that they will "rise up" sort of speak is rather low. I'm a talking of course about whose side in particular these dissenters would be on. Will they be lead by a North Korean general, a Chinese power broker, by no one(In which they could have no funding, organization, training, or leadership. So any revolution would probably fail.) or some other faction. In a situation like this I think it would bear too much semblance to the "revolution" in Egypt rather than or own in the good old U.S. of A.
Re: Who Is Kim Jong Eun?
So many good thoughts and questions here and only 200 words! First, China emphatically does not want war. It desperately wants to maintain the status quo, in my view, but KJE and friends may not oblige. Then it will have to choose. The U.S. challenge is to persuade China that a democratic, unified Korea is in its interest. And, in fact, South Korea is a better partner to China now than North Korea is.
There is zero indication that NK wants a Chinese-style economic transformation. These guys are control freaks. And they look at what economic opening has wrought in China--political dissidence--and cringe. I worry that KJE will try to "prove" himself with military action, that South Korea will respond, and we'll find ourselves in a regional conflagration that we can't control. South Korea has turned the other cheek many times in recent years--the sub that NK torpedoed and the attack on one of its islands--and I get the sense it's not about to do so again. It could respond more aggressively next time.
As for Fatty Eun (or Un), I think they look at him and remember Kim Il Sung.