Which Way Will You Be Rooting?
Prof. Rahe made an interesting claim in the comment section of Ben's recent post. He remains confident we'll win in November but lists SCOTUS's possible overturning of Obamacare -- which would moot one of our best issues -- as an event that might undermine that victory.
Not sure where I stand on that -- on either the optimism part or the belief that a decision against Obamacare would work in Obama's favor. In regards the latter, it might have the opposite effect by giving Supreme-Court-level legitimacy to our claims that Obama is a radical and a rogue. I just don't know. But certainly Prof. Rahe's theory is plausible.
Question: If you agree with Prof. Rahe's analysis of the political implications of the Supreme Court's ruling, does it follow that you'll be rooting for Obamacare this spring?
That's a tough one, no? Personally, I'll be rooting against it -- on the belief that its overturning would be a very important "bird in the hand" in a year of unknowns.
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Comments:
Dec '10
Re: Which Way Will You Be Rooting?
I won't root for it to win in any way, ever. It is unconstitutional. If the elected branches were to withdraw it before or after a favorable Supreme Court ruling it could always be brought back. The court and the elected branches must all declare such activity beyond their legitimate powers.
Aug '11
Re: Which Way Will You Be Rooting?
I would agree with Prof. Rahe, not because it takes the Obamacare issue off the table (in my view, running Romney as the nominee already does that cf. Romneycare), but because overturning Obamacare will fire up that part of his base that believes free healthcare is a human right and that we need European-style socialized medicine ASAP. They will run to the polls to vote for the guy who they think will give it to us.
Among my lefty pals, the consensus seems to be that they dislike Obamacare, but see it as a step toward a universal healthcare system. They will work hard to get Obama re-elected because they feel that regardless of what he says, what he believes in is free healthcare for everyone.
So no, it won't help him because it's off the table; it'll help fire up his base to get something like it as a replacement. That's my view.
Nov '11
Re: Which Way Will You Be Rooting?
I'm with King Prawn. I want the Court to do the right thing; consequences are too hard to predict.
What would Obama's pitch be? "Sure, my first attempt to fix healthcare was unconstitutional and unpopular, but please give me a second chance!"
What if the Court overturns only the individual mandate? Does it give us the best of both worlds -- i.e. he flagrantly violated the Constitution, and we have to vote him out to finish undoing his work. Particularly if Romney is the nominee -- he could say "see, I told you so, it's unconstitutional on the federal level" and focus on the remaining parts which are not so directly similar to Massachusetts.
Or would that ruling leave many people thinking the issue has gone away while in fact the rest of the horrible mess remains in place?
Nov '11
Re: Which Way Will You Be Rooting?
DrewInWisconsin:
So no, it won't help him because it's off the table; it'll help fire up his base to get something like it as a replacement. That's my view. · 7 minutes ago
Makes sense. In which case the Republicans need to say something like: Their first attempt was horrible, unpopular, and unconstitutional -- and now they're working on something even worse. Why ever would we give him the opportunity to try again?
Edited on February 17, 2012 at 4:04pmFeb '12
Re: Which Way Will You Be Rooting?
I fear that Romney takes Obama care off the table. It isn't just the forced purchase of insurance. Lots of hospitals and the Catholic Health Association support that BECAUSE they are required to give free care to those who come and have no money nor insurance. There is a committee that operates outside of any oversight which sets standards for preventive care...they can give as in free contraceptives for ALL women, but they can also take away as in things costly but not sufficient benefit ((all based on research in past years and perhaps obsolete at the moment.)) Obama doubles down and will cover all procedures. Medicare is the biggest rationing scheme already. Ask anyone willing to talk off the record.
Krauthammer hits some of these issues today in WaPo. Worse the whole program in Massachusetts leaves out any consumer oriented market forces.... therein lies a way to control cost. Otherwise WISE MEN and WOMEN will decide by rationing treatments.....
Feb '12
Re: Which Way Will You Be Rooting?
I am more afraid of the precedent set if Obamacare is ruled constitutional than the possible political problems it might create for Republicans in one election. I also disagree with Rahe on the point itself. Obamacare has been consistently unpopular with a majority of Americans. If it is struck down, Obama can only argue the Supreme Court needs to be reined in for being radical - but I really doubt that argument gets very far. The main legislative achievement of his first term gone, I think it dooms him in November.
Nov '11
Re: Which Way Will You Be Rooting?
Against it on principle, not certain of the political effects, though. We've seen the Law of Unintended Consequences at work frequently, it seems.
Apr '11
Re: Which Way Will You Be Rooting?
This seems right, and handily the moral good and the partisan good are aligned here. Overturning Obamacare would underline Romney's message that Obama doesn't understand his job or constitutional limitations; I've not heard so many Santorum speeches on Obama, but I'm guessing it'd support him, too.
Oct '10
Re: Which Way Will You Be Rooting?
If you are confident that SCOTUS will overturn O-Care I have just three words for you:
CAMPAIGN FINANCE REFORM
Thank you GW Bush. You confidence in SCOTUS was rewarded amply.
Remember, our best hope of survival is the GOP!
Jun '10
Re: Which Way Will You Be Rooting?
I'm rooting for the restoration of our republic based on constitutional principles. It's going to take more than a victory over a single piece of legislation. We are so deep into a crisis that is one part constitutional, one part economic, and one part moral that I'm nearly drawn to despair. God Save the Republic!
Mar '11
Re: Which Way Will You Be Rooting?
I will also root for a declaration of unconstitutional for 2 reasons:
1) per the other comments in this thread, proper Supreme Court rulings and the halting of this misuse of the Commerce Clause takes precedent over everything else, and
2) I don't trust a Republican president, even Gingrich or Santorum, to repeal the PPACA, even with Republican majorities in both houses.
Jan '11
Re: Which Way Will You Be Rooting?
The court should overturn Obamacare. If the whole shebang (I thought there was no severability clause?) is thrown out I think it would provide an immediate boost to the economy.
Short of an Iranian October surprise or some other crisis, Obama will lose. Any other outcome will just be evidence that we've crossed the tipping point.
Fixing this will be painful.
Dec '10
Re: Which Way Will You Be Rooting?
Campaign Finance "Reform" was signed into law by W even though he thought it unconstitutional because he thought the SCOTUS would strike it down and because he didn't want to spend the political capital. How'd that work out? We should want the court as well all political actors to do the right thing by the Constitution, regardless. Spinning wheels within wheels regarding a court case as it relates to the general election is counter-productive. Obama deliberately pushed for the case to be decided before the election figuring that the outcome helps him either way. If Romney is the nominee he, and we, should be looking for the most effective ways to articulate the conservative philosophy and why it is far superior to nanny state Obamaism both morally and economically stressing how both sets of policies have fared in the laboratory of reality. How well we make our case to the American people is what is going to decide this election, not the side show of court cases.
Re: Which Way Will You Be Rooting?
You know what, Scott? I almost don't care if overturning ObamaCare helped re-elect our current chief executive. If his signal "accomplishment" had been found unconstitutional, wouldn't he prove less dangerous over the next four years?
I don't care when, I don't care how, and I don't care by whom. ObamaCare delenda est.
Oct '10
Re: Which Way Will You Be Rooting?
Assuming Obamacare is ruled unconstitutional and it gets Obama reelected, he will not have the filibuster-proof Congress that he had for the first two years. I would think that means he won't get anything passed that comes close to Obamacare. My guess is he might drop it altogether and focus on some other issue.
Mar '11
Re: Which Way Will You Be Rooting?
DrewInWisconsin:
Among my lefty pals, the consensus seems to be that they dislike Obamacare, but see it as a steptowarda universal healthcare system. They will work hard to get Obama re-elected because they feel that regardless of what he says, what he believes in is free healthcare for everyone.
So no, it won't help him because it's off the table; it'll help fire up his base to get something like it as a replacement. That's my view. · Feb. 17
If it's off the table because of a reversal in the Court, it will help him precisely because it'll fire up the base to move toward single payor, which is Obama's goal, as well.
Jun '10
Re: Which Way Will You Be Rooting?
Here's my political, and mostly unprincipled, analysis:
The problem is that each scenario contains variables that cannot be determined with any assurance. Given that, I pray the Court does the right thing and kills it. In other words, to quote Peter: "I don't care when, I don't care how, and I don't care by whom. ObamaCare delenda est."
Jul '10
Re: Which Way Will You Be Rooting?
The stench of the legislative conduct surrounding the passage of ObamaCare will long survive any strike down or repeal. If the GOP fails to repeal, or then immediately pushes for more of the same as a "replacement", their claims on small government voters and candidates will vanish like a summer mist.
The Supreme Court should do the right thing. Only the GOP can save Obama now.
Oct '10
Re: Which Way Will You Be Rooting?
What uncharacteristic naivete, Bereket. I believe you know better.
Remember, our best hope of survival is the GOP!
Apr '11
Re: Which Way Will You Be Rooting?
Not sure I agree. If the Supreme Court upholds Obamacare, it will mean that the Anthony Kennedy court no longer recognizes any limits on federal intrusion into all aspects of our lives. Federalism, already on life support and about to receive Last Rites, will expire. Much better that the Supreme Court overturn it than a transient Republican majority in Congress repeal it.
Let's posit an explicit tradeoff that many posters have already hinted at: Supreme Court overturns and Obama is reelected or Supreme Court upholds and Republicans take the Senate and the presidency and hold the House. Which is the preferable outcome?