Which Statistic is Worse...?
That 4 in 10 Americans think marriage is becoming obsolete, or that most Americans missed the memo about the midterm elections, and do not know that the GOP won the House, but not the Senate.
Here's the AP on statistic number 1 (via Hot Air):
About 39 percent of Americans said marriage was becoming obsolete. And that sentiment follows U.S. census data released in September that showed marriages hit an all-time low of 52 percent for adults 18 and over. In 1978, just 28 percent believed marriage was becoming obsolete.
And Politico reports on statistic number 2:
Only 46 percent of respondents in a Pew Research poll released Thursday knew that the GOP had taken over only the House, while a mere 38 percent can identify Ohio Republican John Boehner as the incoming speaker. Three times as many young people, aged under 30, could properly identify Google's new phone software, Android, as could identify Boehner.
Additionally, 27 percent of Americans do not know if the Republicans won either chamber of Congress while five percent believe the Democrats kept both chambers. Fourteen percent said the Republicans won both chambers.
My vote goes to the marriage poll. Political ignorance is excusable, but losing hope in the institution upon which society is based is just demoralizing, especially as we approach the family-filled holidays!
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Oct '10
Re: Which Statistic is Worse...?
I vote for the marriage poll also. Political ignorance is very damaging for a society and it's one of the reasons we are in the shape we are in. However, it's much easier to correct than a culture that has degraded to the point where 40 percent of the people don't understand the role of marriage in promoting and preserving the health of a society.
I'm hoping that both polls are wrong, but if they aren't, they're good illustrations of the work we have cut out for us.
I think one of the primary reasons where in so much trouble financially is because we're in a bad way when it comes to the culture.
Nov '10
Re: Which Statistic is Worse...?
I wonder about such polls (the marriage thing). Polls are used to create news and stir controversies, and tell us very little about the state of society. Need ratings? Commission a poll designed to get people worried. "Just give me something, something I can use . . ."
Of the alleged 40% who believe marriage is becoming obsolete, how many of them are just unnecessarily worrying based upon what they see in the news? With the constant barrage about gay "marriage," divorce rates and so on, who wouldn't be worried that marriage is becoming obsolete? I'm surprised that the number isn't 100%.
I think marriage as an institution is in pretty good shape amongst people who are actually having children, and children learn their values mostly from their parents. Get married, have kids, teach them good values and marriage will be around forever. IMHO, this poll merely shows that 40% of Americans watch too much television.
Aug '10
Re: Which Statistic is Worse...?
May '10
Re: Which Statistic is Worse...?
Great point, Doug. Digging into the subgroups, I notice that 42% of conservatives responded that marriage is becoming obsolete, 38% of liberals, and 34% of moderates. While the 42% to 38% difference is probably within the margin of error (the margin is 2.8% overall, but would be higher for the splits), the 42% to 34% difference is certainly significant, and it tells me that the responses were more of an observation -- sometimes bemoaning, sometimes approving -- about our culture.
Maybe the most notable statistic is that 60% of Americans do not believe marriage is becoming obsolete. And perhaps a silver lining in the gay marriage battle is that it's in fact a battle -- not something that either side is taking lightly. The stakes are still perceived as high.
Edited on Nov 19, 2010 at 11:40amMay '10
Re: Which Statistic is Worse...?
Seems like a pretty clever name (and unless the reporter is four years old, we can probably cast aside any political origins). "Desirée Yen" would be even more apt.
Edited on Nov 19, 2010 at 8:48amJun '10
Re: Which Statistic is Worse...?
Can one be surprised that marriage is widely in disrepute after decades of demeaning and dismissing the role of fatherhood in the lives of their children, and men in general vis a vis society?
Nor can one be surprised that many people think politics stinks more than a sewage barge in the hot son.
I can't say I'm surprised by either result, frankly.
Oct '10
Re: Which Statistic is Worse...?
And just the other day my wife's cousin posted this jewel on her facebook page - she is living with the father of her 3 children, no ring, no plans on being married after something like a decade. The consensus in the family is that whenever their relationship is in trouble and he's getting ready to leave her she magically gets pregnant. She writes
"Okay, I've had enough! I have been getting s*** for years now because *name* and I aren't "married"! Well, BFD! We are happy, have 3 beautiful daughters, own our own house, cars, etc. Also, we have been together longer than some of you have been married and divorced now. Why do we need to have a piece of paper or a ring to be married?!?! In my opinion we are more married than some people who legally are! I have every right to call him my husband and he has every right to call me his wife"
The last part is what is pathetic I think because on her 52 facebook posts a day she always says things like "can't wait for my husband to get home" or "the HUBBY did x"
Oct '10
Re: Which Statistic is Worse...?
Comments by others on her jewel of wisdom include:
"As long as you are happy it doesn't matter..."
"Screw them I've been married and divorced, I would never recommend marriage to anyone it doesn't mean anything anymore!"
Essentially, a ton of people in my generation don't know what marriage means or what it's for. Just a sad state of affairs. At least the cousin is together with the father of her children (and her children all have the same father) When my future kids go to school their contemporaries in America will be from a majority of single parents and kids with a "traditional" mom-dad family will be the weird ones. Depressing.
Nov '10
Re: Which Statistic is Worse...?
“Because lawlessness is increased, most people’s love will grow cold."
There is a real callousness, shallowness and self-centeredness out there.
Oct '10
Re: Which Statistic is Worse...?
I don't even think there's a comparison. If most Americans are ignorant of the current political situation, then nothings really changed. However if a significant number of Americans think marriage is obsolete, then this has incredible ramifications for the future of our society. Family is the core of any civilization. As marriage declines, so declines the family and ultimately our very nation. After seeing that, I don't think I can consider myself an optimist on the future of our nation. Forget national debt, unemployment, our military, or anything else, this is a truer sign of our nations future than any of those other indicators.
Oct '10
Re: Which Statistic is Worse...?
We all know people who insist that America is "going to hell in a hand-basket." That may or may not be true, but the overwhelming majority of these people are probably not among those who are actually damaging our culture. Agreed? They make their remarks as observers, not participants. Note that the marriage question was: "Do you believe that marriage is becoming obselete?" not: "Do you believe that traditional marriage is a good option for you?" The former is an observer's question. The latter is a participant's.
So I assume that the 39% of people who believe that marriage is becoming obsolete answered that question as observers. But what they perceive about the state of marriage has nothing whatever to do with the way they themselves will act. And what eventually happens to marriage in this country will be the result of people's actions, not their perceptions.
So, as a statistician, I must declare that that 39% number has no predictive value and, hence, no power to scare me. Show me numbers that say 39% of Americans state that they have no intention of ever entering into a traditional marriage, and I will commence to worrying.
May '10
Re: Which Statistic is Worse...?
Maybe I missed it, but when I read the article I was looking for both the exact wordings of the survey questions and the demographic internals of the sample. I didn't see either.
These questions can be worded to elicit certain kinds of responses, and they are all highly variable based on sample breakdown. Ask a question about marriage of students at the University of Wisconsin you will get one answer. Ask the same group after they are older than 30 and you will get a different result.
I'm not sure I buy the story as it is written.
May '10
Re: Which Statistic is Worse...?
Agreed, Emily.
Fair points about the polling. I dislike polls in general. But my anecdotal knowledge with friends and peers, like ElevenX's, suggests that marriage has lost meaning among a significant portion of our culture.
Many of the people of our generation who belittle marriage do so merely because it's easier than waiting to move in together. A couple of friends who told me they didn't believe in marriage are now engaged. They don't really have any firm beliefs regarding marriage. They just don't like rules and traditions.
Perhaps the bigger issue is all of the people who marry with the words "til death do us part" and later realize what should have been a promise was actually a contract. I recall a conversation with one Christian friend who agreed that marriage is forever but then said he would file for divorce if his wife was unfaithful. He hadn't thought about it hard enough to notice the confusion in his own beliefs. Someone who does believe the marriage bond is unbreakable must wonder if his or her fiancee thinks this way.
Marriage is the foundation of any society. Break it and break the culture.