Where's the Republican Alternative?
I’ll be blunt. Republicans are deluding ourselves if we think we won the fiscal cliff showdown. To the contrary, for Barack Obama to secure between 80 plus percent of the tax hikes he wanted (in fact, all but the tranche between $250,000-$400,000 that contains major parts of Obama’s brownstone-dwelling base in coastal metropolitan areas)--and to pull off such a coup without budging even a little on spending--is a rout. And I don’t challenge the drumbeat from even many conservatives that the upcoming debt ceiling vote is just as sure a loser given the impossible political optics of forcing a default.
To be sure, those of us on the right can murmur about the bias of a press establishment that overlooks Obama’s refusal to bargain (who is ignoring 47 percent of Americans now?). We can also play the game of blaming Tea Party congressmen who undercut John Boehner’s maneuvering room.
But it’s worth acknowledging a more fundamental reason that Obama can afford to be so heavy-handed. While Democrats have rallied around a straightforward theory of how they want to shape government—subsidize an ambitious spending regime and level what they view as an inequitable tax code—conservatives are struggling to forge a vision of our own. The agenda we offer at our rallies, of liberating job creators and reining in an oppressive bureaucracy, has simply not traveled well outside our base.
Nor have we met the test of specifics that might register with an electorate that distrusts vague promises—and that remembers how a decade of Republicans labeled themselves fiscal conservatives as deficits ballooned on their watch. We equivocate on reforms to Medicare that might check spiraling costs. We have a penchant for symbolic discretionary reductions that won’t put even a slight dent in the deficit. And we seem incapable of sorting out prudent defense cuts from foolish ones.
So, we match Obama’s fiscally reckless theory of outsized government with our own over-heated but un-detailed objections without the force of an alternative reform agenda. There is not a fraction of the public that can describe what a conservative vision of the public interest would really look like, much less how it would grow prosperity or boost families.
Obama is no magician, in fact, neither as consequential as our fears or his acolytes make him out to be. But we make him a winner--if only because you can’t beat something with nothing.
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Comments:
Oct '10
Re: Where's the Republican Alternative?
It's hard to be specific, though. We've had no shortage of ideas (mostly from Paul Ryan), but they haven't gotten through. In truth, pretty much everyone in DC has some idea what has to be done to reign in the deficit; the problem is they can't sell those steps to their base. John Boehner and Barack Obama can negotiate all they want, but if liberal Democrats and Tea Party Republicans won't vote for a final deal, it doesn't do any good.
In the end, it may take significant pressure from our foreign creditors before Congress acts. It may even take a full balance of payments crisis, though I think that's unlikely (Washington has too much experience cleaning up after such crises on the part of developing economies; it may be at the last minute, but I don't think they'll allow the same thing to happen here).
Aug '12
Re: Where's the Republican Alternative?
Welcome to Ricochet, Mr. Davis. Many thanks for your thoughtful comments.
May '10
Re: Where's the Republican Alternative?
And what did the GOP do to promote Ryan's plan in the mass media?
The alternative is there. But the leadership won't unite behind it. And it remains to be proven that the electorate wants it.
Jan '11
Re: Where's the Republican Alternative?
As President (and only politician in the Democrat Party who America tolerates for more than five seconds) Obama has the structure by which he can offer one vision, and the rest of his party, not to mention the media, falls into step.
Republicans don't have that luxury. We have a riotous caucus and a good number of outstanding potential 2016 candidates, which is good, but each has a natural motive for "differentiating" themselves from the others.
It's game theory 101; a large group can't work together effectively because each individual has a motive to "differentiate" themselves. The larger the group, the less coherent, and therefore less effective.
Conservatives are not struggling to find a vision, as if we can't come up with anything. We have plenty of vision. But politics rewards unity and discipline more than it rewards vision, and we don't have that right now.
Nov '11
Re: Where's the Republican Alternative?
The GOP can't put forward a coherent vision because the Republicans, and even most self-described conservatives, are unwilling to deal with SS and Medicare honestly.
You are quite right that Obama does have a plan.
His plan is based on the imposing rational fact that, in an aging society, we can't do SS and medicare halfway. So his plan is to put care and feeding of old folks (i.e., both retirement and healthcare) almost completely under government control for the vast majority of Americans. Obamacare is really about getting Medicare under control, and in Obama's view to get Medicare under control you have to put all healthcare under government control. He's probably right about that. You can't do Medicare halfway. Medicare "works" only if the government controls the entire healthcare system. The same is pretty much true of public retirement systems as well.
The alternative, which is to phase out Medicare and SS for everyone who isn't poor and return to a free-market healthcare and retirement systems, is simply not sellable.
If you think ObamaCare was big, just wait until you get ObamaRetirement. It's coming.
Edited on January 16, 2013 at 7:51pmNov '10
Re: Where's the Republican Alternative?
Indeed. I am a big fan of yours, probably among many on Ricochet. It's very exciting to see you here, and I only wish we had more cheerful subjects to discuss.
Jun '10
Re: Where's the Republican Alternative?
Ditto from me. Please post often.
Oct '10
Re: Where's the Republican Alternative?
I think the GOP only has a chance if they're unified in their opposition and they have a good message and good discipline.
They can only do so much from their minority/weak position. My suggestion is to talk about growth and do it often. When is the last time we've heard a pro-growth agenda from them. Also, they need to come up with some pro-middle-class ideas and a message for it. They need to connect with those voters. They can use the debt ceiling to get those policies passed. They need to take a wedge and hammer it right into the Democrats.
May '12
Re: Where's the Republican Alternative?
A big part of the problem is the Ryan Plan. It is almost as bad as what Obama proposes. If the Path to Prosperity passes as conservative then we have no rudder.
Here's the math on the plan. How is this conservative?
You write very well about our President. He and his party in Congress are absolutely clear about their progressive vision and vote absolutely consistent with the same.
Republicans either a) have a plan similar to Obama's or b) no plan. In either case they are no alternative to Obama.
Jul '10
Re: Where's the Republican Alternative?
Artur, I agree with you, but I can't shake the doubt that it doesn't matter because there's a majority in this country who want to keep expanding the federal government's reach so long as they are materially provided for.
Aug '10
Re: Where's the Republican Alternative?
One of my biggest frustrations has been the lack of communication from Republicans. We allow the Jon Stewarts, Piers Morgans, Mayor Bloombergs, and President Obamas of the world to define who we are and what we stand for. The leadership seems to think they can just play the media's game of being the gatekeepers of information and that is enough.
There have been those in Congress who have tried to come up with solutions to the problems and put them forward (Paul Ryan, Rand Paul, and others that don't come to mind). Yet, no one really knows beyond those of us who follow politics closely. We have seen people like Scott Walker and Bobby Jindal enacting reforms in places where Republicans generally wouldn't have thought they could do well. As Peter Robinson has said on the podcasts, the Republican leadership needs to start following their example.
We need politicians that aren't there to just clock-in and clock-out everyday. They need to start thinking outside the box. The same ol' methods aren't good enough.
Jun '12
Re: Where's the Republican Alternative?
Seeker and I were discussing something along these lines this morning in the office. Is it the fact that the GOP has not formed its own consensus? Obama is a master at high political theater. As much as I despise politics being driven by personality, GOP needs to get a forceful coherent narrative going soon. Additionally, we seem not to have learned from 2012. The Dems never shut down their compaign infrastructure in 2008. They aren't going to this time either. We better start our offense soon or we'll be on defense again and losing ground.
May '11
Re: Where's the Republican Alternative?
Two words regarding "specifics": Big Bird.
The problem is that every wasteful program has a constituency. Announcing specific cuts in a campaign is risky because it potentially energizes turnout by the constituency.
Romney could have easily announced $500+ billion in yearly savings ranging from repealing Davis-Bacon down to ending Obama Phones. Doing so, would have driven turnout by the recipients of such programs up from say 50% to close to 100%.
That was not Romney's failure. His failure was to not attack Obama at all (whether attacking his policies or attacking his character) while not defending himself against ad hominem attacks (the "lies" and "criminal" crap).
Nov '12
Re: Where's the Republican Alternative?
Cornelius Juluis Sebastian and I live outside the beltway. Well outside the beltway. He's right that the GOP needs to get a forceful and coherent narrative going ASAP. The only unification I see among the GOP is that they oppose the President's policies. That's fine. But it's insufficient. With apologies for the cliche, you can't beat something with nothing. And, the lack of cohesion among the GOP means that, for all intents and purposes, we've got nothing. More accurately, we have a lot of ideas with small pockets of support, but no sweeping narrative.
There was so much talk in the 2012 campaign cycle of deficits and the debt, that I think the public is starting to get the message and, more importantly, starting to accept its truth. We have an important and compelling argument on fiscal issues, but our elected leadership isn't coalescing in an adequate enough way to let that argument shine. Instead, there is party infighting and resulting process stories. As a community, we need to let our elected officials know that it's OK not to be perfect because it's getting in the way of their being good.
Dec '12
Re: Where's the Republican Alternative?
At this point there is quite a bit of division on the right, but the focus of the division is not policy it is priorities. On the one hand you have the "establishment" Republicans whose main priority is getting and holding onto political power in DC. On the other side you have the "Tea Party" republicans whose main priority is to take political power away from DC. Both generally agree on less spending and keeping taxes low, but for the establishment this results from gaining power in DC and for the Tea Party less spending and lower taxes leads to less power in DC.
To make a Lord of the Rings reference, the "establishment" want to seize the One Ring to defeat the Dark Lord, while the "Tea Party" wants to destroy the One Ring to eliminate the Dark Lord's power.
Mar '11
Re: Where's the Republican Alternative?
Artur Davis: "...to pull off such a coup without budging even a little on spending--is a rout..."
Let me take a contrary view. We would have all liked to see spending cuts to accompany the tax hike, but not getting them probably preserved the fight over sequestration. Andrew Stiles has an article on NR this morning about the nugget of consensus among conservatives growing around the willingness to let sequestration occur. Had Obama been more flexible, that may have been taken off the table in the fiscal cliff deal. This could work out to our benefit.
Mr. Davis, let me add my welcome to you as a contributor to Ricochet. Don't be shy about posting.
Edited on January 16, 2013 at 9:06pmJun '12
Re: Where's the Republican Alternative?
There is a Republican alternative, but it sounds just like the Democrats.
"While Democrats have rallied around a straightforward theory of how they want to shape government—subsidize an ambitious spending regime and level what they view as an inequitable tax code—conservatives are struggling to forge a vision of our own"
A Republican alternative theory:
"While Republicans have rallied around a straightforward theory of how they want to shape government—subsidize an ambitious nation-building spending regime and level what they view as an inequitable tax code . . . ."
Republicans want big government spending (just not on the same things) and they view a progressive tax system as inequitable.
What's the point anymore?
Aug '12
Re: Where's the Republican Alternative?
1.) Republicans don't have one alternative they have dozens. Has it always been this way? I don't remember Reagan, but I remember when GWBush ran, Compassionate Conservatism and National Greatness Conservatism were the only games in town. The public having soured on both of those manifestations, what is the new unifying banner?
2.) I asked this question the other day: what do Conservatives want. I got a bunch of answers, but I didn't percieve a single theory. The only unifying theme was the desire to be left alone. Everything else was procedural: follow the Constitution, keep taxes low, shrink the state.
3.) I am, at this point, almost prepared to simply lay out all the available plans on the right, and throw a dart. We can tweak from there.
May '12
Re: Where's the Republican Alternative?
Sabrdance:
2.) I asked this question the other day: what do Conservatives want. I got a bunch of answers, but I didn't percieve a single theory. The only unifying theme was the desire to be left alone. Everything else was procedural: follow the Constitution, keep taxes low, shrink the state.
Great point Sabrdance. This is an issue. Conservatives have a libertarian streak that permeates our answers to what Conservatives want.
We want the government out of the way. We don't want the government doing anything that isn't in the Constitution.
It is hard for people to get their head/heart around government not doing anything.
Mar '12
Re: Where's the Republican Alternative?
Welcome to Ricochet, Artur. Excited to see you and hope you'll post here -- and join the conversation -- often. Very much agree that Republicans need a plan that appeals to people besides entrepreneurs and business owners.
Edited on January 16, 2013 at 11:05pm