Where's Joe Btfsplk When You Need Him?
A Ricochet reader asked me how the presidency had changed by the elections of 1932, 1980 and 1992 -- all notable campaigns in that an elected first-term president failed in his quest for re-election (I always keep Gerald Ford out of these conversations, as he was a one-term president who inherited the job).
Here's a quick look back at those three contests. Then let's discuss if the trend applies to 2012.
1932. Herbert Hoover is the Republican incumbent -- a familiar scene, as the GOP has controlled the presidency, for all but 12 years, from 1860 to 1932. Hoover's elected in 1928 (largely, in part) as a continuum of good economic times. Four years later, economic misery dictates a different kind of president: an empathizer-in-chief. Keep in mind, radio now plays a big part in national elecitons. Roosevelt understands how to make the new medium work for him; Hoover can't do empathy, not like FDR.
1980. Jimmy Carter is the Democrat incumbent. He's also the Joe Btfsplk (pictured, above, Al Capp's living-under-a-dark-cloud character) of modern presidencies. Trouble surrounds him domestically, internationally. Even killer rabbits want a piece of his hide. In 1976, the post-Watergate presidency was tailor-made for a preachy Georgian. By 1980, with a need for a national up-lifting, it's better suited to a Western optimist who literally rides high in the saddle.
1992. This one hurts, as I was a worker bee on the Bush-Quayle re-elect effort. In 1988, Bush succeeds by running as Reagan's heir. By 1992, the Cold War is over (thank you, Peter Robinson) and the presidency shifts from commander-in-chief to super-sized governor (no more big speeches in Berlin, but plenty of reading to kids in classrooms and penny-ante domestic events in the Rose Garden). We also begin to look at the presidency more so through a pop-psychology lens. Clinton gets this. Bush 41, already a reluctant campaigner, isn't suited to stretching himself out on the couch, for public consumption.
So, shifting forward to 2012 . . .
Those of us in the Chattering Class wonder if the pendulum shifts the other way: the eloquence and TelePrompter-slickness so vital to the Obama candidacy in 2008 being no longer as relevant.
If the economy seems flat, foreign crises myriad and rollercoaster rides (nuclear catastrophes, congressional shootings) far too frequent for a then-senator who ran as "No Drama Obama", perhaps that opens the door to a long-on-experience, long-on-resume candidate.
I.e., what works for a Republican in 2012 isn't what worked for a Democrat in 2008.
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Comments :
Nov '10
Re: Where's Joe Btfsplk When You Need Him?
I’d say it opens the door to a Republican who can speak, explain, and promote conservatism, if one can be found. It’s not 1992, it might be 1980.
Nov '10
Re: Where's Joe Btfsplk When You Need Him?
Bill Whalen
...perhaps that opens the door to a long-on-experience, long-on-resume candidate.
Such as Bob Dole, George H.W. Bush, or John McCain?
Feb '11
Re: Where's Joe Btfsplk When You Need Him?
In 1988 as far as I was concerned, there was one and only one reason to vote for GWB: read my lips. I did read them. He turned out to be a liar. So I didn't vote for him in 1992.
Jul '10
Re: Where's Joe Btfsplk When You Need Him?
Sadly, once standards are lowered, it seems they can never be restored again.
Bill Clinton lowered the standard for character. Barack Obama lowered the standard for experience.
The trend seems clearly to be towards charismatic celebrity rather than principles and accomplishment.
Justin Bieber for President?
Edited on Apr 2, 2011 at 2:43pmFeb '11
Re: Where's Joe Btfsplk When You Need Him?
Kenneth,
If Donald Trump's hair freaks you out, what does Justin Beeber's do to/for you?
Aug '10
Re: Where's Joe Btfsplk When You Need Him?
Kenneth a belieber ? Wonders never cease. Clinton's real name ( birth certificate name ) was what ? His experience as governor of a fairly corrupt state enabled him to do what well as President ? Ross Perot elected Clinton, you think Obama won fair and square ? The only extant creators of charismatic celebrity are our sorry media, whose attention to bias not business has mostly ruined their finances. Will the next chariot to Pennsylvania Ave be driven by something like Facebook or a coalition of content providers ?
Edited on Apr 2, 2011 at 6:40pmJul '10
Re: Where's Joe Btfsplk When You Need Him?
The elephant [or donkey (D)] in the room: black.
He can't ride the wave of "first black...." anymore. Now it's substance, about which he'll lose.
Oct '10
Re: Where's Joe Btfsplk When You Need Him?
Why not expand the picture, include Fearless Fosdick... The cartoon spin on you know who... Perhaps time to call that example up and work with it...
Nov '10
Re: Where's Joe Btfsplk When You Need Him?
A lot of other people didn’t vote for him in 1992 for the same reason. Breaking his promise was a huge mistake, but his reason for doing it also hurt him. He let himself get snookered into doing it by then Senate Majority Leader George Mitchell, a highly partisan Democrat despised by most conservatives. Nothing hurts more than when someone you voted for with high hopes lets someone you really don’t like lead him around by the nose. That’s what Bush 41 did and it was infuriating.
It’s quite astonishing that some other Republicans don’t seem to have learned much from that example. It couldn’t be more clear and they still don’t get it. Unlike Democrats, Republicans lose their base support when they break their promises, especially when it’s to suck up to some Democrat. Wish they’d try to remember that.
Jul '10
Re: Where's Joe Btfsplk When You Need Him?
That more than anything cost GHWB his second term.
And I will always contend that the Olympic Boycot eroded Carter's endearment with the American Electorate more than will ever be measured.
Mar '11
Re: Where's Joe Btfsplk When You Need Him?
The Democrats held the presidency sixteen years between 1860 and 1932. Grover Cleveland was elected twice in 1884 and 1892. Woodrow Wilson was elected twice in 1912 and 1916. One could also argue that Andrew Jackson, Lincoln's Vice-President under the Union Party banner, was a Democratic president, as he was a Tennessee Democrat. Of course, was not elected.
Jun '10
Re: Where's Joe Btfsplk When You Need Him?
All the rules are broken now (even the one where the last letter in the president's last name must be a consonant). The collapse of the Soviet Union ushered in a new age of the sick Democrats who were waiting in the wings: Clinton (low life), Gore (weak, but close to mainstream -- the version of Gore in 1992 is the best of these four), Kerry (traitor), Obama (anti-American Marxist). The adults in the party fled the ship.
If God is just, the Democratic Party should collapse soon.
I don't see any analogies to previous times.