Where are the Swift Boats?
A thought experiment: a sitting president, running for re-election, faces the following things -- high unemployment, foreign embassies under attack, a military disaster in Afghanistan, and looming national bankruptcy. Now, imagine that president is a Republican.
What do you think the front pages of every newspaper would be drumbeating? What would the press be talking about?
From Byron York's excellent piece today in the Washington Examiner:
Libya, Afghanistan, entitlements -- all are enough for days of discussion about the president's problems. But much of the political conversation, among Republican insiders as well as in news reporting, has focused on Romney's difficulties.
Some conservative critics say Romney has been too vague about his economic proposals. Some say he has muzzled Ryan, failing to take advantage of his running mate's impressive mastery of the federal budget. Some say he has fallen short of the standard set 30 years ago by Ronald Reagan.
There's no doubt Romney has made mistakes in the past few weeks. And there's no doubt some GOP insiders are nearing a state of panic about his chances of becoming president. But what about the other guy, the guy who actually is president? There's a lot going on there that Republicans, and journalists too, might want to talk about.
If the press won't cover this stuff, we need to. I'll say it: we need some Swift Boat-style media, and we need it soon. Yesterday, in fact.
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Mar '11
Re: Where are the Swift Boats?
What Did Obama Know, And When Did He Know It?
Mar '11
Re: Where are the Swift Boats?
I should say:I'm not in favor of intelligence leaks from any officials that compromise our men in the field, or that compromise our methods of gathering intelligence, or in general whatsoever.
But here we have a White House that leaks like a sieve when it's politically convenient for it, and then appears to be hiding behind the skirts of the Justice Department when it could be costly in an election season.
Sep '10
Re: Where are the Swift Boats?
You want us to say unflattering but true things about Obama? Why are you such a racist!
May '10
Re: Where are the Swift Boats?
My initial Audible.com selection has been Edward Klein's The Amateur. It's artery-clogging stuff for those already in the tank -- call it a guilty pleasure -- but it's surprising in how effectively it strips the veil around the president's constructed persona. I hope Team Romney has read it.
On foreign policy weakness it is particularly damning. I hope that Romney is able to skewer the president on this idea that past U.S. behavior is responsible for present Muslim animosity. If R can get O to acknowledge that publicly in a debate, it could really open some eyes as to what the president really believes.
Aug '12
Re: Where are the Swift Boats?
I've been blogging and posting like mad on Facebook. I've just signed up to make calls for the Romney campaign.
Here in Arizona you must present ID to vote so I can't give all my Dem friends flat tires on election day and then vote in their place ;-)
May '11
Re: Where are the Swift Boats?
Earlier today I posted on Twitter that we need to start seeing Romney ads showing Obama in slow-motion black & white, Now!
Sep '10
Re: Where are the Swift Boats?
Safe choices don't defeat incumbents. The GOP has once again chosen a safe moderate establishment type. The idea that voters remember what a mess Bush made of things, but are unaware of the incompetence of Obama is ridiculous. Romney had the money to buy the nomination, but appears unable to make the sale. Unless he can hit it out of the park in the debates I see little hope of him winning.
Jun '11
Re: Where are the Swift Boats?
Was 2010 about Bush or Obama?
The truth is Romney may be winning.
Nearly every poll I see predicts a white turnout between 67% and 72%. I'm seeing polls with D+10 splits putting Obama up by 2. Democrats know that there isn't the fever for Obama that there was in 2008.
Why would 2012 look like 2008?
None of these have been factored into any segmentation model of any poll I've seen. Lets face it, these pollsters don't want to be accused of racism. Axelrod campaigns for quotas in polls and then removes 2 points from his own. These polls are all about FEAR. We need to find ways to reassure the base to ignore the Big Lie.
We stay on target: 11/6/12.
Oct '10
Re: Where are the Swift Boats?
Someone should introduce Rob Long to that other guy, Rob Long, who thinks conservatives who talk about media bias are wasting their breath.
In fact, if memory serves, Rob vigorously criticized James Lileks in a recent podcast for pointing out media bias.
I like this new Rob Long better -- the one who realizes that, while conservatives should never use mainstream media bias as an excuse for failure, it must be publicly called out and vigorously countered if we want to win.
Edited on September 26, 2012 at 7:54pmApr '11
Re: Where are the Swift Boats?
If the death of a US Ambassador doesn't point to the incompetency of this administration, no swift boat crew will.
On the other hand, we all want to hear just good news from now to the election so we can stop sweating. But the more angry we get at what is out there, the more likely we will be to get off our butts and go to the voting booth.
So some angst is preferable because complacency is a vote killer...and right now, complacency is the story out there about the Obama win. It will supress their voters, big time.
Apr '11
Re: Where are the Swift Boats?
Strategoist
Was 2010 about Bush or Obama?
The truth is Romney may be winning.
Nearly every poll I see predicts a white turnout between 67% and 72%. I'm seeing polls with D+10 splits putting Obama up by 2. Democrats know that there isn't the fever for Obama that there was in 2008.
About the D+whatever splits, how do we know that is not because more and more independents are self-identifying as Democrats?
Jun '11
Re: Where are the Swift Boats?
wmartin
Strategoist
Was 2010 about Bush or Obama?
The truth is Romney may be winning.
About the D+whatever splits, how do we know that is not because more and more independents are self-identifying as Democrats? · 12 minutes ago
I'm supposing that the extra D in the polls is a natural extension of mixing the voter segmentation <77% white vote. With 25-30% of the vote non-white, Obama gets a nice boost in any poll whatever the D/R/I.
Many of the D+ polls are showing Romney ahead with independents - why would that group suddenly switch to Democrat?
Jul '11
Re: Where are the Swift Boats?
Timing is everything Rob.
I'll tell you what I know. There are surprises and coordinated attacks ready from the Romney campaign. How the first debate goes will dictate strategy. Romney wants to win without going in to the gutter. He is prepared to dumpster dive though and the trash will be amusing to the pundits, potentially win the election yet not help with bipartisanship in the future.
The old media already has their articles mostly written but need a few cherry picked quotes.
Nov '10
Re: Where are the Swift Boats?
In this vein, I'd like to recommend this video and ask again, as I did on the Member Feed, whether it is getting any play anywhere, and if not whether there's somewhere we can donate money to help it get shown. The video does, I think, a perfect job of showing the lousy job Obama is doing without coming across as angry or combative. It hits the note of disappointment that Rob highlighted as a convention tone.
Apr '11
Re: Where are the Swift Boats?
Strategoist
wmartin
About the D+whatever splits, how do we know that is not because more and more independents are self-identifying as Democrats? · 12 minutes ago
I'm supposing that the extra D in the polls is a natural extension of mixing the voter segmentation <77% white vote. With 25-30% of the vote non-white, Obama gets a nice boost in any poll whatever the D/R/I.
Many of the D+ polls are showing Romney ahead with independents - why would that group suddenly switch to Democrat? · 33 minutes ago
Because voter id is not a set-in-stone demographic group like being black or white. Voter id changes a lot-what pollsters are saying is that voters that were previously id'ing as independents are now id'ing as democrats. The group that is still left as independent after all that self-sorting is done may still be giving a lead to Romney, but the pool of true independents who don't identify with either party is smaller now.
Dec '10
Re: Where are the Swift Boats?
Swift Boats? Well, I watched the original press conference by the SBVFTT group, on CSPAN, but how many others did? That press conference was devastating, and thus barricaded by the media. Everything devolved into a he-said-she-said, because nobody showed the actual veterans in an actual press conference environment, taking and responding to questions. Remember how Kerry was going to release his actual records on his website? Remember how he never did and he never got challenged on it again?
You want your Swift Boat moment? I'm not a Glen Beck subscriber, nor do I have the Dish Network (I believe it will be on Dish, channel 212), but tonight they are airing the documentary, "The Project". Watch it. Publicize it. Get it out there. You don't even have to subscribe to Beck's site, as he has a free trial available.
It's stuff I am mostly familiar with, the Stealth Jihad infiltration of our government and institutions, but there are aspects that are very relevant to the current administration and this coming election. Go watch, then see if you haven't been given a glimpse into Obama's rise.
Blaze.com/tv, I think.
Jun '11
Re: Where are the Swift Boats?
wmartin
Strategoist
wmartin
· 12 minutes ago
I'm supposing that the extra D in the polls is a natural extension of mixing the voter segmentation <77% white vote. With 25-30% of the vote non-white, Obama gets a nice boost in any poll whatever the D/R/I.
Many of the D+ polls are showing Romney ahead with independents - why would that group suddenly switch to Democrat? · 33 minutes ago
...The group that is still left as independent after all that self-sorting is done may still be giving a lead to Romney, but the pool of true independents who don't identify with either party is smaller now. · 1 hour ago
Its because pollsters do weigh for demo segments, but not for party ID that I believe the polls are skewed.
Romney has been winning independents all year. I don't see how indies start to self ID as Dem when they've been trending Romney so consistently.
What is shrinking the indie pool is the demographic mix pollsters are using.
Re: Where are the Swift Boats?
Blake: Someone should introduce Rob Long to that other guy, Rob Long, who thinks conservatives who talk about media bias are wasting their breath.
In fact, if memory serves, Rob vigorously criticized James Lileks in a recent podcast for pointing out media bias.
I like this new Rob Long better -- the one who realizes that, while conservatives should never use mainstream media bias as an excusefor failure, it mustbe publicly called out and vigorously countered if we want to win. · 4 hours ago
Edited 4 hours ago
You want to hear something sad? They're both the same Rob Long. I agree -- media bias exists and we need to call it out. But often I think we end up whining about it and using it as an excuse. We've won before. We'll win again. But no matter who wins in November, we'll need to work hard to shift the country to the right. It's not there now.
Jun '12
Re: Where are the Swift Boats?
wmartin
Strategoist
I'm supposing that the extra D in the polls is a natural extension of mixing the voter segmentation <77% white vote. With 25-30% of the vote non-white, Obama gets a nice boost in any poll whatever the D/R/I.
Many of the D+ polls are showing Romney ahead with independents - why would that group suddenly switch to Democrat? · 33 minutes ago
Because voter id is not a set-in-stone demographic group like being black or white. Voter id changes a lot-what pollsters are saying is that voters that were previously id'ing as independents are now id'ing as democrats. The group that is still left as independent after all that self-sorting is done may still be giving a lead to Romney, but the pool of true independents who don't identify with either party is smaller now. · 2 hours ago
Depending on which pollster you believe, party identification currently in this nation varies between D+4 to R+4. Anything outside that range is clearly not to be believed... unless you actually want Obama to win.
Jun '11
Re: Where are the Swift Boats?
Here is a nifty article on exactly what I have been talking about. Real data is coming in and its looking a little different from the polls. ;)
http://battlegroundwatch.com/2012/09/26/the-reality-of-2012-voter-turnout-the-white-voter/
And check out Ohio absentee requests, its trending 14% more Republican than 2008.
Google docs link: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AvEOdIaw0fPNdHVOZnFENDdDYVFTRi1UMlgxQ0F4OVE#gid=0