When the Clock Will Strike Midnight
With Paul Ryan and Chris Christie still apparently thinking things over, I've been wondering what the latest plausible date for entering the Republican nomination contest might be. In the Wall Street Journal this morning, Karl Rove provides the answer:
While the GOP has a good field of a dozen contenders, others may get in. They have time: The first filing deadline is Oct. 14 for the Michigan primary. After that, candidates start losing opportunities.
October 14. Mark that date on your calendar.
A couple of other striking excerpts from Karl's column:
The current GOP race is the most fluid of any I have ever observed. Most Republicans are still uncommitted....
As fluid and volatile as the GOP field is, Republicans are energized. Democrats are increasingly sullen and depressed. Mr. Obama is struggling with weak growth, high joblessness, a terrible housing market, and collapsing consumer and business confidence. Worse, the president has no concept for how to respond, and the public senses this.
Does the public ever.
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Aug '10
Re: When the Clock Will Strike Midnight
There is a limited pool of campaign talent out there and I would imagine that most of it is already tied up by the other major candidates (Pawlenty dropping out may have freed up some of that talent but I don't think having some of the other minor candidates drop out will add to the pool significantly since they didn't attract A list talent in the first place)
Besides, it's takes time to develop a decent ground game and organize in all 50 states. I would guess that anyone serious about the race will get in by the middle of September - any later would just be too late to give it a serious go.
I would love to get Murphy's take on these issues...
Edited on Aug 18, 2011 at 12:40pmMay '10
Re: When the Clock Will Strike Midnight
I keep considering this nomination as essentially one between Romney and anti-Romney candidates. Perry might be on roughly even ground with Romney, but it seems Perry must share more votes with other candidates than Romney does.
Thus, I wonder if another candidate would ultimately favor Romney regardless of who it is. A crowded nomination process isn't bad... except when not all candidates are directly competing with each other. If it's five conservatives vs two moderates, the leading moderate has a major advantage.
With that in mind, here are my questions:
May '10
Re: When the Clock Will Strike Midnight
John Bolton is another possible late-comer. But I doubt he will join the race if he believes Perry would be strong on defense.
Jun '10
Re: When the Clock Will Strike Midnight
The filing clock may run out on Oct.14, but the fundraising clock runs a little faster and probably runs out about Sept.14. In this game, money draws more money. And unless you're independently wealthy, that's how you'll be judged at deadline time. How much money do you have on hand? I think Perry hit the sweet spot on that score. And it makes me think he knows what he's doing, more than most.
Aug '10
Re: When the Clock Will Strike Midnight
Aaron, I'm not so sure that other candidates would help Romney by taking votes from Perry. Ryan and Christie would both add some unforeseen dynamics to the race that would be hard to predict.
I would like to see both Ryan and Christie jump in as that would give us the widest choice possible and would force the winning candidate to excel in all facets of the race in order to beat such quality opponents.
I actually think that Ryan would have a very difficult time if both he and Christie got in as I don't know if most GOP primary voters are as enamored of his wonkishness as Dr Rahe and many Ricochetians are. I think he may get lost in the shuffle...
Aug '11
Re: When the Clock Will Strike Midnight
I'd love to see the 'stache as a running mate. I don't know if he'd take the gig, but I'd love to see him attack the administration on the campaign trail. He'd also be great in the debate against Biden. Or fellow Yale Law alum, Hillary Clinton.
On the other hand, it would be nice to see him at Foggy Bottom in the next GOP administration. The despots of the world would get some straight talk for a change.
Dec '10
Re: When the Clock Will Strike Midnight
It's already looking like a playoff system with brackets would be our best hope of getting the best candidate possible. Since that's never going to happen we either hope it comes down to just a bare handful or we end up with a candidate 20-30% of the party likes. All that being said, the syphilitic camel still beats Obama in most of our minds.
Aug '10
Re: When the Clock Will Strike Midnight
The King Prawn
It's already looking like a playoff system with brackets would be our best hope of getting the best candidate possible. Since that's never going to happen we either hope it comes down to just a bare handful or we end up with a candidate 20-30% of the party likes. All that being said, the syphilitic camel still beats Obama in most of our minds. · Aug 18 at 12:29pm
I would prefer pool play in the primary to brackets - the free-for-all aspect appeals to me for some reason...
Apr '11
Re: When the Clock Will Strike Midnight
I believe Bill Clinton joined the race in September of 1991. Early September seems like a logical date to me and I definitely don't believe it's too late for the likes of Christie and Ryan since there is no clear front runner any more. Romney was simply the default choice and it's clear that people want something better.
At this point is time, the GOP candidates are looking and sounding better, and the POTUS is fading fast. I'm sure the dynamics will change as things get narrowed down, but one thing that I like is that the Dems are being forced to spend time & money digging up dirt on many candidates, which will leave them less of both in the final battle.
My predictions are as follows: Sadly for our country, I think a double-dip recession is coming, but that will be the last straw the drives Obama's approval into the mid to low 30s and seals his fate. The question is starting to become, how big will the GOP wins be in 2012. It's looking similar to 2010 when the momentum just grew and grew leading up to November.
Feb '11
Re: When the Clock Will Strike Midnight
Christie may not have the impact implied by various posts above. The problem with him is that once you get past the satisfaction of his blustery rhetoric against teacher unions and their stooges in the legislature all you have is an abrasive man who's positions on many non budget issues are disturbing at best. I suspect a broad spectrum of voters outside of New Jersey will have serious issues with Christie once his positions become better known. With the possible exception of Romney, the candidates he will damage are ones with little or no chance of winning anyway. The last thing this country needs, except four more years of Obama, is a northeastern borderline RINO in the White House. I would vote for him against Obama, but only under those circumstances.
Edited on Aug 18, 2011 at 2:01pmAug '11
Re: When the Clock Will Strike Midnight
In these early, rough-and-tumble days of campaigning, I enjoy a good rhetorical grenade thrown with gusto as much as anyone. Heck, I enjoy them any time. However, I look for a bit more in a candidate running for the presidency. That's why the country desperately needs Paul Ryan in this race, much more so than Chris Christie. We have enough grenade launchers and limp rags in this race. What we need is a genuine Republican in the race, firmly committed to principle, and most of all a candidate with the ability to articulate principle and policy so as to persuade the American public. Contrast the way Christie dealt with unions in Jersey with the way Walker dealt with them in Wisconsin. Christie said he doesn't mind duking it out as often as is necessary. But what happens to his reforms when he's no longer there to play hardball? Scott Walker managed to bring about long-lasting, effective reforms that do not depend on him being around to defend the taxpayer. That's how you win the war, and that's why we need Paul Ryan as president. Less flash, more gravitas.
Aug '10
Re: When the Clock Will Strike Midnight
Aaron Miller: I keep considering this nomination as essentially one between Romney and anti-Romney candidates. Perry might be on roughly even ground with Romney, but it seems Perry must share more votes with other candidates than Romney does.
[snip]
With that in mind, here are my questions: · Aug 18 at 11:51am
Aaron, in my opinion Ryan will draw fiscal conservatives and moderates who are bearing with Perry and Bachmann's overt contest for the Evangelical/Social Conservative vote and are bearing with Bachmann's populism and lack of executive experience.
Christie will not scoop up many Evangelicals, but he will capture many of those looking for a strong, straight shooter who will both call down the fire on Obama and fight like a cornered animal over the money.
This hurts Bachmann more than Perry, because although she has earned these people's respect (and mine) by doing these things while running for the office, they would now have an opportunity to decide who might take more ground for them.
I hope we see Ryan, Christie, and Palin jump in soon.
Edited on Aug 18, 2011 at 9:55pmAug '10
Re: When the Clock Will Strike Midnight
Here is why:
When I was kid I went to a Battle Royal at the historic Olympic Auditorium, 18th and Grand, downtown LA.
This was back when pro wrestling was real. It looked something like this.
18 men, including John Tolos, Freddie Blassie, Rocky Johson (The Rock's dad), Andre the Giant, Kinji Shibuya, Bruno Sammartino, Dutch Savage and Mil Mascaras! I will always remember Andre the Giant tossing The Rock's dad clean out the ring for the win. It was a blast, it was the Best Night Ever.
A primary without Palin is like a Battle-Royal without Blassie, still fun- but could be funner.
Ryan and Christie both give our people, people who love this country and care about it's future, more opportunities to find their champion.
Single combat is inevitable, but for now, give me a melee!
Edited on Aug 18, 2011 at 10:15pmMay '11
Re: When the Clock Will Strike Midnight
I believe a lot of the potential candidates were waiting until the Iowa Straw Poll was over. It doesn't ever really promote anyone but can eliminate you if you put too much emphasis on it (see Tim Pawlenty). Now there's plenty of time to build your brand without an artificial milestone to deal with.
Aug '10
Re: When the Clock Will Strike Midnight
Good point about the straw poll. I hope you are right and we see at least those three I mentioned join soon.