When, exactly, will the Republicans blow this opportunity?
William Galston, than whom there is no better thinker among Democrats today, has been reading the same polls as his Brookings colleague E. J. Dionne, but takes a much harsher view of what Democrats can do. “In a blogpost on The New Republic website headlined “Prepare yourself for Speaker Boehner,” Galston tell House Democrats “it’s time to press the panic button.”
The always brilliant Larry Sabato writes:
These days the best D.C. parlor game is guessing November’s House results. We’ve recently made our own contribution, with a district-by-district analysis that projects—as of early June—a Republican net gain of 32 seats. But the Crystal Ball has always done House projections in two ways. The second method requires advanced statistical modeling of the sort Professor Alan Abramowitz provides in this week’s Crystal Ball. Prof. Abramowitz’s record has been superb in election prognostication, and his analysis shows a GOP gain of 39 House seats—precisely the number needed to take control.
It'll be interesting to watch the Republicans fritter away this opportunity. If, in fact, it is an opportunity. (I'm a little more pessimistic about Republican chances in November.) So the questions are: 1) Will they blow this? 2) In what weirdly unexpected way will they blow this? 3) Is it even in their interests to win, when 2010-2012 are going to be such challenging, broke years? 4) If they win, then what?
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May '10
Re: When, exactly, will the Republicans blow this opportunity?
I don't have any guesses about November. But I'd say the bigger factor is what Democrats do this year than what Republicans do. Republicans are mainly riding a wave against big government and a struggling economy (they should play up next January's impending tax hikes). The attention of voters is more focused on Democrats, I think.
So much could happen in the coming months.
Re: When, exactly, will the Republicans blow this opportunity?
The GOP might blow this chance after the fact, Rob. I haven't thought the matter through very well yet, which makes it a perfect question to press forward: isn't there a potential downside to huge gains in '10? Or, how do Republicans ensure there isn't a repeat of the '94 -> '96 debacle? Is the current crop in Congress ready for that challenge? If not, will an influx of new blood help or hurt? All inside basebally questions, but all bearing pretty heavy national significance. The bottom line might be that if Republicans shy away at all from the opportunity to take the wheel, they'll lose as much credibility as Obama -- and more. Being the Party of No is great when you're knocked back on your heels by an administration devoted to passing as much sweeping change as possible in its first year. But by the midterms? It's time for some yeses.
Edited on Jun 19, 2010 at 9:37amMay '10
Re: When, exactly, will the Republicans blow this opportunity?
I think the GOP has a chance if they have more folks like Trace Adkins on their side. Did you see Anderson Cooper's interview with him about the oil drilling moratorium in the Gulf? Kerpow! And he does a lot for Wounded Warrior Project. I'm telling you, the Coastal Conservatives need to seriously start working more with the Southern Conservatives. I know there is a big cultural disconnect, but the Ivy League GOP needs to start liking the taste of sweet tea, if they want Congress and the White House back.
May '10
Re: When, exactly, will the Republicans blow this opportunity?
I agree with Aaron that the Republicans are riding a wave over which they have very little control, though I frankly don't think Democrats have much control over it either. The economy and--a sleeper--the eventual Iran/Israel confrontation are the biggest factors.
As for whether it's in our interests to win, heck yes it is. The next couple years will be a mess regardless, and the President will get the majority of the blame--as he always does (e.g., Dems don't get blame for '06-'08)--so we might as well make a little progress toward getting control of the levers. And if we don't want control because we're gun-shy or we don't think we're up to it, then what's even the point of all this?
May '10
Re: When, exactly, will the Republicans blow this opportunity?
Scott is exactly right. And I'd add: whether it's in the GOP's best interest to win or not is almost irrelevant. We have an obligation as citizens to not just idly stand by. Two more years of Democrat control will not make things any better.
Re: When, exactly, will the Republicans blow this opportunity?
Agreed -- as a tactical matter, the GOP has no choice but to go all-out to capture as many seats as possible. With the media building up high expectations, anything short of a massive swing to the Republicans will be interpreted as a loss for the GOP.
Whether congressional Republicans can make long term progress depends, in my opinion, on whether they can maintain their recent discipline and push a principled conservative agenda with item #1 being repeal of Obamacare. Let the President veto the bill. It will create a clear record for 2012.
May '10
Re: When, exactly, will the Republicans blow this opportunity?
Not meaning to instigate overconfidence here, but I suspect things have gotten to the point where not even the Stupid Party (by which I mean the DC-based GOP apparatus) could screw things up. If anything, I think Sabato is being entirely too conservative--not in the political sense, but rather being cautions--in his seat counts. The way things are going right now, I suspect the insider Dems have stopped worrying about losing 30 or 40 seats and started seriously worrying about losing 70 or 80.
May '10
Re: When, exactly, will the Republicans blow this opportunity?
As an aside, there is something about this site that strongly encourages bad grammar and/or spelling in yours truly. "Rather being cautions"? Sheesh...
May '10
Re: When, exactly, will the Republicans blow this opportunity?
Ooooh, man, that would be nice. And you know, there's another reason a wave election is important: to send a message to the world that this post-American order is not a permanent feature of life in the 21st century. We need to impress upon both friends and foes that the American strong horse will be back--and soon--and that they need to position themselves accordingly.
Re: When, exactly, will the Republicans blow this opportunity?
Here's an idea: wait to repeal until you have the votes! Amazingly, a poll brought to my attention by Ezra Klein shows half of Americans wanting a partial or full repeal, even while 60% want more government spending.
Re: When, exactly, will the Republicans blow this opportunity?
Karen, I just watched the Trace Adkins video. Wow. Anyone know how we can get him to contribute to Ricochet? I'd love to hear his thoughts on....everything.
I guess my concern is, are the Republicans going to, again, become Half-Off Democrats? You know: we're for what they're for, but only half as much, plus tax cuts. That might have worked in the past, but at a national debt of, I think, One Terabit, we're going to have to shrink government. Or raise taxes, a lot, and become sclerotic slow-growth Europe.
May '10
Re: When, exactly, will the Republicans blow this opportunity?
Here, here!
I can think of one concern if Republicans win. If their majority is slight, a few Republicans could rebel against a party vote aimed at preventing next year's tax hikes. If that happened, the party's image would immediately and lastingly damaged, perhaps costing us later down the line. How unlikely is it that Obama could buy a few Republicans with his Mary Poppins bag of pork?
May '10
Re: When, exactly, will the Republicans blow this opportunity?
Bingo. This is where I am on the old continuum of concern. November's not really keeping me up nights and, by all means, let's win every single seat we can. What has me fretting is the performance of a Republican House and (dare I say it?) Republican Senate in January 2011 and beyond.
Rob, your original post said that Democrats are warning each other to "[p]repare yourself for Speaker Boehner." I think conservatives and Republicans should be wary of the same thing. Lookit - I'm charged up about November and working for a huge sweep in the Congressional and state elections. Congressman Boehner seems to be a fine man and he's been a good Republican solider. However, the notion of "Speaker Boehner" is not what gets me going. Speaker Cantor, Speaker Ryan - that's what gets me excited even if they're a complete shot in the dark. We need energy and inventiveness on our side and, granting Congressman Boehner his many just merits, I don't think he brings the fire in the belly we're going to need between from conservative legislators between now and November 2012.
May '10
Re: When, exactly, will the Republicans blow this opportunity?
Matthew: I, too, would love a Speaker Cantor for all those same reasons. However, the notion of Speaker Ryan troubles me because I've got bigger plans for that guy, and the speaker position is by definition so political, partisan, and combative, that Ryan's attaining it, I fear, would be tantamount to "shooting his political wad" too early in what could be a historic career. Might be better to burden Boehner with that bad-cop role for the time being. Tough call.
May '10
Re: When, exactly, will the Republicans blow this opportunity?
Scott - Impossible to quibble with any of this, especially the hope of something more for Paul Ryan. Maybe Boehner is the better foil; however, I'm just uneasy with a guy from Ohio who seems to stay suntanned all year round...just sayin'.
May '10
Re: When, exactly, will the Republicans blow this opportunity?
While we're on the John Boehner topic, everyone must read Rob Long's "The Long View" from several months ago in National Review in which he pariodied the Twitter feeds coming out of the White House health care summit. Hilarious stuff about Obama, Alexander, Boehner, McConnell, and the rest, but Joe Biden took the best and most deserved shots.
May '10
Re: When, exactly, will the Republicans blow this opportunity?
I predict a return to prominence of southern Republicans. It's awfully tough for the media to turn Jindal and Rubio into racist neo-Confederates [not that they won't give it their best, mind you]. If you envision a sort of Expanded South, we've got DeMint, Sessions, Coburn, and could add Rubio, in the Senate, with Jindal, Barbour, and Purdue occupying executive positions [if only New Jersey were in the South!]. I'm ignoring the House, though the South is strong there too [Tom Price, or Joe Barton, for example]. That's a fairly solid array of talent for the future, and I'd challenge any region to match it [and would lay odds that only the intermontane west has a chance of equalling it].
And these are the sorts of folks who are unlikely to be Half-Offers. It's you coastal types that seem to fold like crepes under a media attack [Yes, I'm looking at Rob here - I've heard his wishy-washiness every week on the podcast. Doing voice-overs for Kaus can't buy you out of your moderate coat!]. Plus, the South is the military's stronghold. We could do much worse than the South rising again [covered in Kudzu this time].
May '10
Re: When, exactly, will the Republicans blow this opportunity?
Oh: but in answer to Rob's question, they'll blow it right about three weeks after their ascension to power.