What will 2100's Megacity Be?
Ursula Hennessey ·
Nov 21, 2010 at 5:40am
The Wall Street Journal has a graphic this weekend comparing the top three cities (population) in the world in 1500, 1900, and 2010. The information shows what we all know in quite stark fashion.
I wonder, what three cities do you think will be atop the leader board in 2100? Why?
Here are the cities and populations:
1500: Beijing (672,000)* Vijayanagar, India (500,000) Cairo (400,000)
(*Four of the world's 10 biggest cities in 1500 were in China.)
1900: London (6.5M) New York (4.2M) Paris (3.3M)
2010: Shanghai (16.3M) Mumbai (13.8M) Karachi, Pakistan (13.2M)
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Comments :
Re: What will 2100's Megacity Be?
For what it's worth, their statistics don't coincide with others I've seen. Istanbul, by the way, is almost certainly much bigger than these statistics suggest--20 million by some estimates. Sure looks that way to me.
Re: What will 2100's Megacity Be?
Hmm. Their source is the World Gazetteer for 2010.
Re: What will 2100's Megacity Be?
Am I missing something with this link? NYC is generally considered to have a population of 8-9 million. How do they get 20 million, I wonder. Am I mis-reading the list somehow?
Re: What will 2100's Megacity Be?
Ursula Hennessey Am I missing something with this link? NYC is generally considered to have a population of 8-9 million. How do they get 20 million, I wonder. Am I mis-reading the list somehow? · Nov 21 at 6:28am
I was wondering the same thing. Anyone else understand that?
May '10
Re: What will 2100's Megacity Be?
I thought Tokyo and Mexico City were bigger. I think it gets complicated when you count just the city boundaries and not the metropolitan area.
May '10
Re: What will 2100's Megacity Be?
I get kinda squirrelly when I'm in a town with more that 10,000 people.
May '10
Re: What will 2100's Megacity Be?
Yeah, it's hard to judge. In the South, populations are more spread out than they are in the Northeast. My town is just outside Houston's border, but most of the people here work in Houston. Sometimes we're included in statistics for "the Greater Houston Area" and sometimes we're not. They'll annex us eventually (without our consent... using political tricks, as they did to Kingwood). For perspective, it takes me nearly an hour to drive into the heart of Houston.
Population density can make all the difference in regard to cultural effects.
I think big cities tend to become progressive largely because of moral exhaustion. It's easier to stand up for beliefs and traditions when you're not bombarded by so many interactions that you're always drained or stressed. And simple niceties like holding a door open for someone makes less sense when there's a constant stream of people going through the door. Between that and the increased odds that people crossing paths are strangers, there's less reinforcement of civility. Also, bigger cities attract more immigration from other cities, so the local culture becomes ever less homogenous.
Jul '10
Re: What will 2100's Megacity Be?
Ursula Hennessey
Am I missing something with this link? NYC is generally considered to have a population of 8-9 million. How do they get 20 million, I wonder. Am I mis-reading the list somehow? · Nov 21 at 6:28am
There are two columns, one for metro (NYC 20 mil) and one for city boundaries (NYC 8 mil). Check out the differences for San Fran and Miami. Within city limits San Fran is no bigger than Milwaukee or Memphis, while Miami is no bigger than Minneapolis (not including St. Paul) but Miami and San Fran have huge metro populations.
Aug '10
Re: What will 2100's Megacity Be?
Whatever city it is, the top city will probably be Muslim. They're the ones who seem to have the most enthusiasm for breeding.
China--fuggedaboudit. Their population numbers will continue to spiral down the toilet, and it's likely that the gravitational pull of the cities on rural populations won't be enough to offset that.
The USA--even if our blue states can scratch their collective heads and remember how to make babies, our suburban living, representing as it does the pinnacle of civilization, will keep our cities from getting too crowded.
May '10
Re: What will 2100's Megacity Be?
1. Mumbai
2. Lagos
3. Tokyo
Mumbai has grown due to trade and development, and should continue to do so. It's on an island, which may inhibit its growth, but that hasn't stopped Hong Kong. It's a huge port city.
Sub-Saharan Africa will continue to grow through high birth rates, and the cities will fill from migration. Lagos is growing quickly with a developing resource trade. It's a huge port city as well.
Tokyo is enormous, and while it will shrink, it will still be the one of the largest. It's 32 million right now, making it by far the biggest city in the world; it won't die that quickly.
Nov '10
Re: What will 2100's Megacity Be?
I'd say Austin, TX. There's still another 40 million or so fellow Californians that have yet to make their way here the way I did a couple years ago.