What the Huck?
Leave it to arguably the squarest man on television to take the titillation out of a striptease.
Or so I felt, watching Mike Huckabee's "major announcement" (after a week of Fox News ridiculously hyping the drama of the event) -- telling us, on a little-watched on show on a Saturday night, that he won't seek the presidency.
Quelle surprise!!
Election-watchers will notice the lack of a strong presence of a big-name social conservative in the current field of Republican hopefuls.
Or, for that matter, the lack of a big-name candidate with ties to the Deep South.
Me? I'm looking at Iowa, which Huckabee won way back on the third night of 2008.
Huckabee took 34% of the vote that evening. When combined with John McCain (13%), Fred Thompson (13%), Rudy Giuliani (4%) and Duncan Hunter (1%), it means that 65% of that 2008 electorate -- two in three caucus voters -- will be looking for a new horse in this election.
On the same day that Huckabee dropped out, Tim Pawlenty was making the rounds in Iowa. Newt Gringrich was adding campaign staffers. They're winners, as a result of Huckabee's no-go. They have to shock the world, begininng in Iowa, to have chance at the nomination.
And the Iowa straw poll, now only 90 days away (August 13), just became a lot more interesting.
btw, George W. Bush waited until July 12, 1999, to make his first campaign visit to Iowa. One month and two days later, he won that year's straw poll.
Of course, there's a flip side to that argument: why bother?
John McCain (and Giuliani) blew off the 2007 straw poll, but went on the capture the GOP nomination. And some guy named Reagan lost the 1979 straw poll.
Your thoughts on the impact of Huckabee's decision?
- Comment (16)
- · Quote
- · UnfollowFollow (1)
Comments :
Jul '10
Re: What the Huck?
"They have to shock the world, begininng in Iowa, to have chance at the nomination."
This is what dismays me about the primary process: it's a game. Organize, spend and pander in two small states and, regardless of your merits or your national appeal, suddenly you're a prohibitive front-runner.
The system stinks.
Dec '10
Re: What the Huck?
The straw poll is political theater (although as a resident of Ames, it's fun political theater and you could do worse than spending a day in Ames and a few days at the Iowa State Fair a few miles south -- Americana at its finest).
Huckabee didn't do well at the straw poll, Romney won it, but he spent a lot of money. I think in the intervening months there was a word-of-mouth campaign among evangelicals in which very little of his policies or record was discussed. The "former evangelical minister" part of his bio got a lot of play.
The Iowa GOP is more religiously-oriented than most, but that's sometimes overstated. The socon gubernatorial candidate got trounced in the primaries in favor of the former governor who was viewed as the responsible level head. This may have brought some non-socons into the party and Huck may have realized that he couldn't fly under the radar again.
Also remember that socons got a big victory in which three of the Iowa Supreme Court justices got bounced in large part based on a gay marriage ruling. Anti-judiciary will play very well here.
Re: What the Huck?
All great points, "Amish Dude".
So let's say you're Mitch Daniels and you jump into this thing. What's your Iowa strategy? You've said the party would be wise to avoid contentious social issues. But is that a good message for a staged event like Ames (btw, you have to pay to play, right? isn't there a fee to cast a vote?).
Does Daniels do a 'Daniel in the lion's den" and head to Ames? Does he skip the event and, like Huckabee, spend the weeks post-straw poll talking to evangelicals, dispelling whatever doubts there might be. Or, does he avoid Iowa altogether? But that gets into scheduling problems as to where the plant the flag and raise expectations . . .
I've long assumed that Romney would all but concede Iowa if Huckabee, Palin and Bachmann were in the race -- lower expectations, wait for the winner in New Hampshire. But what if the two ladies decide not to run? Is staying out of Iowa still the right move for Mitt if it's a field mostly made up of lesser-knowns??
Edited on May 15, 2011 at 1:54pmAug '10
Re: What the Huck?
Whalen, you are rolen.
saw this after the trump----wth ?
care to comment on dsk ?
or would that be slip me a dsk !
Dec '10
Re: What the Huck?
The straw poll (and I would encourage Ricochet to send somebody who could do a proper job of reporting, I don't think I could do much better than buying a still camera) is a big party. Each of the candidates ropes off some of the parking lot and pays to do so. Romney had a huge setup right in the middle with a big screen. He bussed in lots of participants. Only Iowa residents can vote in the straw poll, if I recall correctly, but anybody can man a booth or just walk around.
I wouldn't say "stay away from social issues" at all. In fact, if somebody stakes out ground as the social issues candidate, he (or she) will get more traction than they otherwise would get. It ends up being self-limiting, especially for a top-tier candidate and especially for one without a good track record.
Mitch is in a bind. His "truce" was not received well, especially since socons feel besieged. They're not the aggressors in the culture wars at this moment in time and felt lectured to by that comment....to be continued...
Dec '10
Re: What the Huck?
...continued...The easy way to play to socons without alienating the larger audience is to be anti-judge. That would play very very well here because of the "No" votes on retention last year. However, Mitch has a problem on that front also.
I should point out that Huckabee did not avoid the straw poll in 2008 and did reasonably well.
Daniels' best bet, in my humble and uneducated opinion is Iowa. New Hampshire won't be particularly friendly to him and neither will South Carolina. A few months ago, I would have said he was a very natural choice to win Iowa. But he keeps making news in the conservative media for all the wrong reasons.
I think Mitt would be a fool to skip Iowa. He has a network. He was a force in the straw poll. Bachmann will do fairly well in the straw poll, but Iowans take their caucus very seriously and also-rans will not go very far. Maybe she'll double or triple expectations, but that's damning with faint praise.
Mitt is running as the inevitability. If he concedes any state, he will look weak.
Mar '11
Re: What the Huck?
I saw the announcement scrolling on the TV on a bullet train in Japan (where the debt is even higher than the US, despite, or because, of high-speed rail).
Yawn (must be the jetlag).
As for social conservatives, there is Sar... oh, never mind.
This seems to be shaping us as the Republican elites dragging Bob Dole, err, I mean Mitch Daniels, into the $1B race, with a $100 war chest funded by the Bush dynasty and Ricochet, while Barbara Bush keeps the Moose-hunter locked up in Alaska, well outa harms way.
Mitt has shot himself in the foot (or maybe twas Dick Cheney on a hunting trip), so the only hope remains in the Tea Party - maybe Herman Cain or Michelle Bachmann, if the one-who-cannot-be named is unavailable for comment.
Pawlenty? Yawn.
May '10
Re: What the Huck?
How do you see Pawlenty doing? I'll be very interested to see if Cain can pull a little surprise there. Wouldn't have to be much of one, but I wonder if he's getting buzz after the only debate so far.
My only problem with Iowa is that having the first caucus (actually, that word is another problem) there is that farm subsidies and ethanol are untouchable.
Jul '10
Re: What the Huck?
David Williamson:
This seems to be shaping us as the Republican elites dragging Bob Dole, err, I mean Mitch Daniels, into the $1B race, with a $100 war chest funded by the Bush dynasty and Ricochet, while Barbara Bush keeps the Moose-hunter locked up in Alaska, well outa harms way.
Mitch Daniels is no Bob Dole. Far from it. Ignore his accomplishments in Indiana all you wish; he's been the most effective Governor of a state in well over two decades.
As for the meme that Daniels is the choice of the "elites", poppycock. He's the choice of those who choose hard work and demonstrated ability over a frivolous, Reality TV star.
Dec '10
Re: What the Huck?
As I said in the ethanol thread, I think that issue is very much overblown.
Pawlenty will be able to point to his support of farmers (that's really why he supported Cap & Trade back in the day) so he'll have credibility for them without making a lot of ethanol promises.
Pawlenty's niche is that he's the compromise candidate. He's acceptable to a large swath of the GOP primary electorate and has won in a very blue state. He's also boring. I don't know that that's a killer for him in the general election. Charisma doesn't make 9% unemployment taste any better.
The thing about the Iowa caucuses is that you have to be in the top 3 but it matters very little where in the top 3 you finish.
Cain is like the backup quarterback. Everybody loves him as long as he's riding the pine. If he becomes a frontrunner, he'll have trouble dealing with the media and will be picked apart like any frontrunner by the GOP primary voters.
Ultimately, in Iowa and New Hampshire, you have to kiss hands and shake babies.
Or something.
Apr '11
Re: What the Huck?
Pawlenty's everyone's second pick - not loved, but not hated either. He doesn't have any really major issues like the others. Social cons don't really like Daniels because of the truce and defense cons don't like that he hasn't articulated very much foreign policy. Sarah threw away her governorship halfway into the first term to become a big conservative celebrity and has low poll numbers. Romney has Romneycare and flip-flopping. Trump's a clown. Santorum lost reelection by 18 points. Cain has no elective experience and is relatively unknown. Gingrich has his divorces and affairs. People don't like Ron Paul's foreign policy. Pawlenty can win because people will turn to him when their candidate collapses or doesn't get anywhere.
Mar '11
Re: What the Huck?
Kenneth
Mitch Daniels is no Bob Dole. Far from it. Ignore his accomplishments in Indiana all you wish; he's been the most effective Governor of a state in well over two decades.
As for the meme that Daniels is the choice of the "elites", poppycock. He's the choice of those who choose hard work and demonstrated ability over a frivolous, Reality TV star.
Bob Dole is a great American, but was doomed to lose, from the start - that is the only analogy I was trying to draw. I am sure Mitch Daniels would make a great President, I just can't see him winning against a frivolous Reality TV star (Mr Obama). I also fear for his wife being destroyed by the lamestream media.
Most of the electorate are not political junkies, like us informed people on Ricochet - haha - they are too busy watching Oprah, and they get all their Political news from the View, or the Daily Show.
It goes back to whether we have reached the tipping point - I think we have.
I hope I am wrong, Kenneth, and you are right.
Edited on May 15, 2011 at 10:41pmMay '10
Re: What the Huck?
So, doesn't Huckabee dropping out make Santorum the Social Conservative candidate of choice at the moment? Or am I wrong? Might he be the dark horse in Iowa?
Edited on May 15, 2011 at 4:14pmJan '11
Re: What the Huck?
Bill Whalen:
Your thoughts on the impact of Huckabee's decision? ·
Some other fiscal populist/economic know-nothing with nanny-state tendencies will have to step up to the task of wooing the SoCons.
Jan '11
Re: What the Huck?
Can anyone tell me why the Iowa caucuses are so important? This is not a trick question, I really don't get the importance of it.
As for my own reaction to the Huckster's announcement go to the 35 second mark of this clip: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fiCRoOsy_vA
Edited on May 15, 2011 at 8:51pmJul '10
Re: What the Huck?
I wonder how long Huck's show Saturday nights on FOX will last now that just about the only reason to watch him is gone. Mitch Daniels has been very shaky on judicial appointments in Indiana, allowing left-wing lawyers to cull the field for him. Beyond that, he reminds me of the little man on the wedding cake except that Thomas Dewey had more hair. His missus will have to go on Oprah for a big cry and explanation of what that other man thing was all about.