What the Heck is Wrong with Iran?
This morning, Iran announced that it was suspending oil sales to France and Britain. It’s tit-for-tat: we already decided that we would stop buying their black gold from July 1 onwards. But this is just the latest step in a bizarre process of military escalation. Aside from promising the world “exciting news” on its quest for a nuclear bomb, Iran has also moved to dominate the Strait of Hormuz and sent warships into the Mediterranean for the first time since 1979. The intimidation of Israel is blatant.
For some reason, Iran has ignored the lessons of Iraq, Afghanistan, and Libya. The West, when suitably outraged, will respond with military action. Indeed, everything that Iran is doing is counter-intuitive. Shouldn’t they be lying low during this period of “Arab Spring” democratization? Why aren’t they focusing on their own borders, their own sagging economy, their own people?
The question I want to ask the forum is, is Iran operating from a position of strength or weakness?There seem to be three options:
1) Iran calculates that the West is overstretched and can’t effectively respond. Benefitting from a geographically isolated position (consider how logistically difficult it was for the US to try to rescue its hostages in 1980), Iran thinks that it can rattle the saber without concern for a Western military response. China and Russia have its back, there are plenty of customers for its oil, and Middle East opinion is on its side. It even has a peculiar network of friends among South American Marxists.
2) Iran is in crisis and this is an expression of profound political panic. Its economy is not healthy and it sees itself surrounded by new US allies. The regime of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is despised by the clerical establishment and diplomatic intrigue is his way of buying a little favor with voters. Reuters covers the complex politics of next month’s poll, and it’s difficult to unpick. But it seems that nuclear development has gained an internal logic and momentum that are hard to stop.
3) Rick Santorum is right and Iran is simply mad. Since 1979, the theocratic totalitarian state has produced a breed of leaders who are on perpetual Jihad against the West and who really wouldn’t mind dying in a nuclear confrontation, so long as they wake up in Heaven with their rivers of honey and hundreds of virgins. Added to that intense religiosity, you have Persian nationalism. Iran still has old scores to settle, going way back to the overthrow of Mossadegh and the crowning of the Shah.
All three answers suggest that war with Iran is inevitable because, barring a regime change, its nuclear program is central to the nation’s sense of internal and external legitimacy. Under such circumstances, is diplomacy even possible?
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May '11
Re: What the Heck is Wrong with Iran?
4) Iranian leaders figure they can get away with whatever they damn well please as long as US foreign policy is set by people way in over their heads.
Jan '11
Re: What the Heck is Wrong with Iran?
As with all self-imposed trade barriers [especially embargoes], it's like turning your own nation's weapons against your own citizens. The supply disruption will just affect who trades with who and will add costs. Britain and France will still end up getting their oil but it will cost more than it did. Iran will still sell oil but instead of collecting the maximum amount of revenue, distributors will get some of it instead. This will actually negatively affect the Iranian people more than anyone else.
Jan '11
Re: What the Heck is Wrong with Iran?
I agree with Macsen. They've calculated that the West won't stop them. We can't answer whether they're wrong or not, not yet anyway.
It's entirely possible that the economy will be a push, this November. If the economy is still a shambles, but it's inching forward, the Democrats will sell the idea that the only thing that matters is the "trend" of the economy. The media will push that also. Who knows how many fellow citizens will buy that fraud? My guess is that it'll be enough to moot the economy as a slam dunk issue.
But at the same time, relations with Iran could emerge as an issue.
Once again, Obama's self-preservation will trump long term national interests.
Sep '10
Re: What the Heck is Wrong with Iran?
"ignore the lessons of Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya" I would say the lessons were learned. The west, even when it has the backbone to become engaged has little perseverance. An even when its armed forces wins militarily, as they did in Iraq, the politicians will negotiate a face saving retreat. Iran is becoming closer to Iraq than the US and it could be argued we were better of strategically with Saddam in power. There is no doubt the US has the military might to crush Iran , but has repeatedly demonstrated they lack the will to use it. Santorum may be right about Iran being mad, but for the past ten years the US has acted as if this were not even a possibility.
Jan '11
Re: What the Heck is Wrong with Iran?
When one believes they have Allah on their side, anything one can imagine is possible - and it is impossible to lose.
There's nothing new in this. Iran is what it is, a country filled with good people led by a few but powerful delusional nut cases and their small but, again, militarily powerful followers.
If our leaders are looking for those leaders to experience some sort of epiphany in response to proffered rational diplomacy, they're in the wrong business. And, I might add, a bit delusional themselves.
Sep '10
Re: What the Heck is Wrong with Iran?
Our military CinC is pulling out of Afghanistan and has already pulled out of Iraq, despite the strategic importance of each. I'd say the Iranians have things figured out pretty well. Their biggest worry was the American units in Iraq. Now that they're gone, just how do you propose to invade Iran?
Oct '11
Re: What the Heck is Wrong with Iran?
More informed minds than mine, please help:
If Obama had decided to give some kind of aid to the Green Revolution three years ago, and the results became that of Egypt et al.; would we now be dealing with a different strain of Islamism running Iran or would it have been a more peaceful governing leadership?
Jan '11
Re: What the Heck is Wrong with Iran?
If Obama had decided to give some kind of aid to the Green Revolution three years ago,... would it have been a more peaceful governing leadership? · 2 minutes ago
Or a Syria, perhaps?
May '10
Re: What the Heck is Wrong with Iran?
Suspending oil sales does not cost Iran anything, it does cost Britain and France however, or ultimately the consumer. Crude oil is priced on a "single world market," a market that "prices rather than sells," to a customer set that needs every drop that is put on the market.
Countries, like Britain and France, or rather downstream oil operators in those nations, the refiners, have long term delivery contracts with various crude producers, like Iran.
This allows them to manage arrival and offloading of tankers and the refining of a specific type of crude, when those contracts are cancelled, as Iran has done, there is no shortage of crude on the market, but increased costs of delivery and refining will add a healthy percentage to the price at the pump.
It's a strange market, and business, for instance Britain itself produces 100% of the crude it needs, but much of that goes to other places in Northern Europe that have a demand for it.
So the net is what? Not a cent lost to Iran, but the market price of crude will go up a couple of points as there is now a "source shuffle.
Apr '11
Re: What the Heck is Wrong with Iran?
Iran is in a race with economic, societal and demographic collapse (like much of dar al Islam).
The demographic collapse:
http://www.indexmundi.com/facts/indicators/SP.DYN.TFRT.IN/compare?country=ir
"By 2050, elderly dependents will comprise nearly a third of the population of some Muslim nations, notably Iran"
but without any "western" safety net.
The economic collapse:
http://www.dailyfinance.com/2012/02/06/the-stunning-collapse-of-irans-currency/
The societal collapse:
"5% of Iran's adult, non-elderly population of 35 million is addicted to opiates. That is an astonishing number, unseen since the peak of Chinese addiction during the 19th century. "
"More than 90% of Tehran's prostitutes have passed the university entrance exam, according to the results of one study, and more than 30% of them are registered at a university or studying,"
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/KB24Ak02.html
http://www.ruthfullyyours.com/2012/02/06/lessons-about-iran-from-hitler-david-goldman/
Jan '12
Re: What the Heck is Wrong with Iran?
Probably true, but I wouldn't discount #3, despite the apparent contradiction. 'Jad may be mad, but he can still sniff out a clueless U.S. President.
Nov '10
Re: What the Heck is Wrong with Iran?
To quote Cameron Poe, from the movie Con Air:
“My first guess would be… a lot.”
Re: What the Heck is Wrong with Iran?
Ahmadinejad and Khamenei are both betting that we will back off. Saddam did the same thing. Bluster is a common enough posture in the Middle East, and it tends to attract support until it is shown to be vain. The regime of the mullahs is in trouble at home. Ahmadinejad and his faction are at odds with Khamenei and his supporters -- and a victory in foreign affairs is seen as a way of winning victory on the home front.
To this, we can add what liberal jim (#4) says above. The Obama administration has displayed fecklessness from the start. When we signal that we are weak and want out of the world, the thugs are encouraged. It is, alas, an old story.
The Iranians, like the Arabs, are apt to get drunk on their own poetry. In this sense, Santorum may well be right.
Nov '10
Re: What the Heck is Wrong with Iran?
I think that we need to keep in mind two things:
1. There is NO certainty that a new regime in Tehran will halt or even slow down the nuclear developments. (Most revolutionary regimes require an external enemy to unite their populations.)
2. There is no guarantee that the Iranians have not ALREADY produced one or more nuclear bombs and are awaiting the occasion for using or at least demonstrating that they have them.
Feb '11
Re: What the Heck is Wrong with Iran?
Paul A. Rahe:
To this, we can add what liberal jim (#4) says above. The Obama administration has displayed fecklessness from the start. When we signal that we are weak and want out of the world, the thugs are encouraged. It is, alas, an old story.
Another time honored principle is that in time of internal difficulty you distract the peasantry by conjuring an external threat, perceived or otherwise, reality being useful but not essential. One of my fears is that Obama will attempt to utilize a potential Iranian crisis in precisely such a manner.
Apr '11
Re: What the Heck is Wrong with Iran?
Why can it not be all three Timothy? Like all dictatorships they are in a constant race trying to avoid collapse and the mounting unrest of their own people. Leaders in dictatorships are never really sane, at least not like you or I. Such systems build upon and thrive on paranoia and internally are maintained by sycophantic yes men. They often delude themselves into over estimating their own might and underestimating other peoples strength. These delusions some times are based on certain truths. American power is stretched, and the Administrations resolve appears weak.
I think what will happen will come down to how Obama will respond to provocations. If he establishes a clear line in the sand (ie. the Iranians trying to block the straights of Hormuz) then we will know what they are up to. If they are mad they won't care. If they are banking on weakness they will back down. If they are trying to maintain internal control they will posture all the way up to the line but not cross it.
I don't think Obama is a hard line in the sand kind of guy though.
Dec '10
Re: What the Heck is Wrong with Iran?
Timothy,
This is the ultimate failing of the Obamite Foriegn Policy. They pre-conceived the idea of the "hand to the Islamic World". This wishful thinking clouded their judgement. When the Greens were willing to go into the streets for 11 months and take being beaten, gassed and shot, Obama should have acted. It would have been very easy to destabilize the regime at that point. Instead he fiddled while the Middle East burned. Now Egypt is becoming a second Iran because the Obamites turned their noses up to Mubarak. It has been a fool's Foriegn Policy. Only removal of the chief fool can solve this.
What will be needed is a joint strike force. America, Israel, Europe, and Russia. The Chinese will lay back as they always do. Once we are sure we have everyone on board we may still be able to destabilize Iran by disrupting the Bank of Iran. All of this, of course, requires a President with a spine. The creature currently in the White House resembles a political jellyfish.
Regards,
Jim
Nov '10
Re: What the Heck is Wrong with Iran?
Iran is not mad, as Santorum says. But he is right in that you cannot understand Iran's actions by Western-oriented rationalistic analysis, which contains false assumptions about how they make decisions. Iran is a Theocratic state ruled by a council of Twelver Shiite theologians called the Velayat e Faqi. Until you understand that, and what that frame of reference provides for decision making in that country you simply cannot grasp their goals nor the internal calculations they make before acting on the world stage.
The problem with the Bush-Obama administrations is that they have worked to deliberately prevent any analysis of this sort, even firing and muzzling the very experts within the State Department, Military and Intelligence communities who can explain these things to those who need to respond.
Those of us who have paid attention to these issues, and to the U.S. Administration's ostrich-like actions, are deeply discouraged and very concerned at the likely outcome of applying standard Western economic, military and political analysis to relations with Iran. You could with a bit of reading yourself, Tim ... unless you deliberately left off the most obvious options from your list "for discussion".
Nov '10
Re: What the Heck is Wrong with Iran?
Sounds a bit like the U.S. right now to me, Anon -- substitute "media" for "military".
Edited on February 19, 2012 at 8:12pmJul '10
Re: What the Heck is Wrong with Iran?
All of America's enemies are now down to 11 months to fait their accomplis before the restoration of constitutional government. The jihadis have made excellent use of their time so far.