What Next? Four Scenarios (Three of Which Are Bad)
From a friend who grew up among the Coptic Christians of Alexandria (Christians make up some five to ten percent of the Egyptian population), who still has many relatives in Egypt, and who still returns to Egypt nearly every year:
It is definitely a great day for Egypt. Since the beginning of time, Egypt has not had an elected government. In 1952, we had a military coup; Nasser was in power for 18 years, Sadat for 11 years, and Mubarak for 30 years. None of these men were ever elected by the people of Egypt.
What’s important is what’s next. This is not the end, it is just the beginning.
1) If we end up with the military ruling, the peaceful protests of the young people in Egypt will have been in vain.
2) If we end up with the Muslim Brotherhood in power, the Coptic Christians, secular Egyptians, and the United States' relationship with Egypt will all suffer because there will be no freedom of expression, religion, or anything else.
3) If we end up with a secular government that is tolerant of the Muslim Brotherhood, the Brotherhood will reorganize, recruit new members, and most likely take over within ten years.
4) The best option for Egyptian Christians and the rest of the world is a secular free government that is not tolerant of the Muslim Brotherhood and that will adopt the separation of church and state. We must remember that the Christians in Iran and Iraq did better under their previous oppressive regimes because even though the Shah and Saddam were both dictators, they were even-handed in the treatment of their people.
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May '10
Re: What Next? Four Scenarios (Three of Which Are Bad)
I hope we are not seeing the birth of a new Islamic axis but, I fear we are.
Feb '11
Re: What Next? Four Scenarios (Three of Which Are Bad)
I was watching CNN and heard one reporter interviewing one of the protester and he talked about Egypt's leaderless revolution, but quickly added that they need to find some leaders soon. I found myself wondering if he was rejected the idea of being lead by the MB. I also wondered if there are in fact leaders other than the MB sitting in the weeds waiting to emerge when they feel that they are safe.
Edited on Feb 11, 2011 at 6:26pmNov '10
Re: What Next? Four Scenarios (Three of Which Are Bad)
What's interesting to me is how many of my liberal colleagues view Muslim Brotherhood power in Egypt to be not so bad. "Not the worst outcome." is the refrain.
May '10
Re: What Next? Four Scenarios (Three of Which Are Bad)
Forgive me for saying so, Mr. Robinson, but I can't help notice my hackles go up at the mention of "separation of church and state" in the preferred option 4.
Jefferson's letter to the Danbury Baptist Church did indeed describe this wall of separation (cf. Hamburger), but it was ensconced into our Constitutional vocabulary in the late 1800s as a means for keeping those darn Papists in check. Not only does "separation of church and state" lack a Constitutional basis, but it runs afoul of a set of Judeo-Christian morality that underpins most of our laws. Conservatives cry foul when the Left tries to strip away this moral underpinning, and we roll our eyes when, emanations and penumbras-like, the Left tries to justify this with some faux Constitutionality.
But therein lies the problem. We can hardly remain steadfast in maintaining a Judeo-Christian basis to our own laws, and not expect a Islamic (not to say Islamicist) basis in Egypt's. So, I'd hope your friend could restate option 4 such that Egypt could accommodate religious pluralism, while remaining rooted in the religion-based morality of the region.
Edited on Feb 11, 2011 at 6:53pmJun '10
Re: What Next? Four Scenarios (Three of Which Are Bad)
I ran into a Coptic friend this afternoon who is profoundly disappointed and fearful about the developments in Egypt. Her family would have preferred to keep Mubarak.
Her plea: Pray for Egypt!
Jan '11
Re: What Next? Four Scenarios (Three of Which Are Bad)
Sorry, Peter, but there is zero chance of a "good" scenario playing out in Egypt.
I won't cite the Pew Research poll of attitudes of the Egyptian people, which showed that nation to be the most favorably disposed to Islamic fundamentalism. Statistics and poll results can be misleading.
I will cite the absence of anyone in the streets of Cairo calling for strictly limited government, low taxes, religious tolerance, and the sanctity of private property.
Mark my words: the shouts for "freedom" and "democracy" are merely the same old populist utopian claptrap, pretty words waiting to be silenced by the most ruthless element in the society.
The only ones being fooled by those words are the endlessly gullible American media.
Edited on Feb 11, 2011 at 8:15pmNov '10
Re: What Next? Four Scenarios (Three of Which Are Bad)
I am a little more optimistic than a lot of folks here. Given the situation Egypt was it, it is hard to imagine a better outcome than we have. If you look, you will find a lot to gripe about, but right now, it looks like there will be elections; those elections will be at least a little free; the military is probably going to keep a check on the Muslim Brotherhood. There is a lot of stuff that can blow up, but with a little luck, Egypt will be less of a dictatorship and more of a democracy with less room for a fundamentalist Muslim dictator to grab the reigns of power.
On top of that, the guys in Iran might be a little more nervous than they have been. I do wish that the administration had been more aggressive with the Iranian government several months ago when they were under fire from inside.
Jun '10
Re: What Next? Four Scenarios (Three of Which Are Bad)
Tom Davis:
On top of that, the guys in Iran might be a little more nervous than they have been. I do wish that the administration had been more aggressive with the Iranian government several months ago when they were under fire from inside. · Feb 11 at 8:23pm
Tom, this is the point of the movie Iranium.
May '10
Re: What Next? Four Scenarios (Three of Which Are Bad)
My hope is that the military remains strong and separate, providing a last-resort firewall against an Islamist state. Whatever happens, we must maintain our ties, even if back-channel, to that institution.
May '10
Re: What Next? Four Scenarios (Three of Which Are Bad)
I don't think democracy can ever succeed in family-oriented, low-trust societies.
To understand low-trust societies you have to understand two rules:
1. The default assumption is that anyone who is not a member of my family is out to screw me.
2. Obligations to my family trump obligations to society (including such quaint notions as obeying the law).
Oct '10
Re: What Next? Four Scenarios (Three of Which Are Bad)
If I'm reading that correctly, he's saying that the most critical aspect of a free Egyptian government is that they be unwilling to tolerate the involvement of the Muslim Brotherhood. So the preservation of freedom requires intolerance of those who would oppose it? Is there a concept that the American Left is less likely to understand than that?
Nov '10
Re: What Next? Four Scenarios (Three of Which Are Bad)
outstripp:
I guess that I am close to being a one guy low-trust society. I do trust a couple of folks outside of my family, but not a hell of a lot of folks. I do not trust everybody in my own family though. With very few exceptions, if I am called upon to sacrifice the interest of my family at the alter of society, in most cases the alter of society is going to suffer.
Dec '10
Re: What Next? Four Scenarios (Three of Which Are Bad)
How does this non sequitur persist in their minds?
“Riotous crowds” did not cause the abdication of their dictator; he fomented his own demise in his attempt to circumvent the established Military-Industrial Complex’s position of power with a sort of dynastic succession by bequeathing sovereignty to his son.
Can worldly Egyptians believe, can the media competently report, that a mob of youths for a couple of weeks assembled in Cairo’s central square overturned a regime—the ruling body of which they all know full well has not changed but with the decapitation of its renegade titular head?
The protests in the street were well performed. But they were only a timely diversion that enabled a long simmering power struggle between Egypt’s Military-Industrial Complex and Mubarak to culminate while the protesters unwittingly set the stage for him to capitulate gracefully.
Egyptians cannot be so naïve. Our own media and administration are contriving to hand credit to our historic first Islamic apostate president.
Jul '10
Re: What Next? Four Scenarios (Three of Which Are Bad)
Peter Robinson:
Were mine the only eyes popping out of their sockets upon reading this? While the Shah and his ruthless SAVAK can only be considered even-handed in comparison to the current regime, in which universe does that description apply to Saddam? And in particular his treatment of minorities besides Christians like the Kurds and Jews?
May '10
Re: What Next? Four Scenarios (Three of Which Are Bad)
So this is a moment where I am proud to be a squish. All the conservative talk radio and TV hosts are converging on the polemical, contrarian view that disaster looms. While I agree that the MSM coverage looks too much like the fall of Baghdad celebratory coverage and some caution is warranted, the desire on the right to take the opposite perspective and not to give the administration an inch, skews their coverage as well. Some caution is warranted, but the left wing criticism that suggests the Islamo-Fascist paranoia may have been overdone is valid.
Our foreign policy apparatus missed this so completely that it's fair to consider the question. We thought they hated us so much that they despised Mubarak for supporting us. But what if they hated us for supporting him? David Brooks' line is that increasingly around the world the standard for a normal, respectable form of government is democracy and we should have more confidence in that truth.
Yes there are worrying alternative forms of government out there -- but they are obviously flawed, dysfunctional and oppressive. So why must we be so frightened of them?
May '10
Re: What Next? Four Scenarios (Three of Which Are Bad)
You forgot scenario
5) President Obama saddles up his unicorn and rides over the rainbow to Egypt where they all hope 'n change, then everybody in Tahrir Square links arms and sings Kumbya.
Sep '10
Re: What Next? Four Scenarios (Three of Which Are Bad)
Nick Stuart: You forgot scenario
5) President Obama saddles up his unicorn and rides over the rainbow to Egypt where they all hope 'n change, then everybody in Tahrir Square links arms and sings Kumbya. · Feb 12 at 10:16am
FUUUUNNNNNY
Sep '10
Re: What Next? Four Scenarios (Three of Which Are Bad)
I used to work with a Egyptian and i can remember his comment to me. "Muslims can't live with anyone! Even other Muslims".
I fear for the coptic Christians in a democratic Egypt. I think it will not go well.
Re: What Next? Four Scenarios (Three of Which Are Bad)
More from my Egyptian friend:
"I think that options 1 and 2 are unlikely and that option 4 is wishful thinking. Option 3 is the most likely."
Not encouraging, to put it mildly.