What Is the Women's Vote?
There are surely women who prioritize gender-specific issues such as easy access to contraception and abortions when deciding whom to vote for in a presidential election. And these are women who can be counted on to vote Democrat every time.
But there is no such thing as a monolithic women's vote, argues Ramesh Ponnuru in his latest column at Bloomberg, and the Romney campaign is making a big mistake by acting as though such a voting bloc exists.
Take the graphic at the right, for instance. Over the past week, Romney has attempted to make the case that the real "war on women" is being waged by the Obama administration, which has presided over massive female job losses. The Romney campaign has gone so far as to claim that precisely 92.3% of jobs lost under Obama's watch belonged to women.
Trying to reframe the "war on women" meme in this way is an exercise in futility. Women certainly do care about their own employment prospects and the economy at large, but these aren't strictly "women's issues." Why use language that suggests that they are? "Making an issue of the statistics about job loss by gender will come back to haunt Republicans," warns Ponnuru. He continues,
Romney claims that 92 percent of those lost since Obama took office belonged to women. Does he have any plan, as president, to ensure that women get the right percentage of jobs? Does he realize that cuts in aid to state governments -- like the Medicaid cuts that are an important part of his agenda -- would inflict disproportionate job losses on women?
Romney should absolutely communicate his plan to spur economic growth and job creation, but he's not fooling anyone, nor helping his case, when he panders to women on the basis of their gender. The sort of woman who would ever even consider voting for Mitt Romney in the first place isn't the sort of woman who responds to a candidate's appeal to her sex.
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May '10
Re: What Is the Women's Vote?
Ummm, the biggest mistake in American history?
(Just kidding, ladies. Couldn't resist a wide open door.)
Re: What Is the Women's Vote?
Tom Lindholtz: Ummm, the biggest mistake in American history?
(Just kidding, ladies. Couldn't resist a wide open door.) · 9 minutes ago
Booooo.
Feb '12
Re: What Is the Women's Vote?
That's ok, Tom. I'll be mopping the floor with a guy who looks just like you about an hour from now. Literally.
Apr '11
Re: What Is the Women's Vote?
I'd been keeping that article, along with this from Mark Levin for a response I'd write to Mollie.
There are a ton of women who vote on identity, just like a ton of baptists voted Carter and a bunch of idiots who disagreed with Bush voted for him anyway; he was the guy you wanted to have a beer with. Wishing these factors away is not a sensible strategy.
I had a roommate in Beijing for a while who voted for Marcy Kaptur. She was a smart lawyer and knew that Kaptur was anti-trade, anti-China, etc., and didn't like that, but supported her anyway on the basis of abortion rights. I pointed out that Kaptur wasn't pro-choice, but she felt that as a woman Kaptur would do the right thing in a pinch, and Kaptur supported the party that "cared about women".
Michael Steele used to talk a lot about the way that African Americans often felt a powerful duty to vote Democrat, that Mothers would literally cry in his arms because they thought that he was a great role model and they agreed with his policies, but they couldn't vote Republican.
Re: What Is the Women's Vote?
James Of England:
There are a ton of women who vote on identity, just like a ton of baptists voted Carter and a bunch of idiots who disagreed with Bush voted for him anyway; he was the guy you wanted to have a beer with. Wishing these factors away is not a sensible strategy.
What does it mean for a woman to vote on identity? Are we reducing the women's vote all the way down to the single issue of abortion? If so, we're basically resigned to the fact that no pro-life candidate will ever play well with women.
The problem with that is that it's just not true. As Ponnuru cites in his piece, pro-life Republicans have carried women in three out of the last eight elections.
Apr '11
Re: What Is the Women's Vote?
There are three ways to respond to this in addition to pretending that the problem doesn't exist; one of them is to persuade people that they're not betraying their identity by adopting the key problematic policies; this is what Michael Gerson was arguing for in the piece that Mollie responded to here.
The second is to persuade them that the policies you have are "pro-women" policies. By emphasizing women's unemployment as a gendered concern, for instance, Mitt is helping some women give themselves permission to care about it, framing it in a way that lets them feel they're sticking up for women when they support the free market (the opposite of the message of the education most of them have received).
The third is straight identity politics; all the recent emphasis on Mitt the family man and on Ann, are good examples of this.
As conservatives, I think we're right to want our candidates to avoid pandering on substance, so we're left with a choice of persuading people that capitalism benefits them, that our candidates connect personally with them, wishful thinking, or some kind of combination. I prefer to go light on daydreams.
Feb '12
Re: What Is the Women's Vote?
Women don't vote as women any more than men vote as men - although the hope that women will vote as a bloc is as present today as it was during the women's suffrage movement.
As I understand it, a major distinction is between married women and single women. Married women tend to vote Republican; single women tend to vote Democratic.
There's no use talking about "the women's vote" any more than we should talk about "household income" (since a household can be, for instance, anything from a single 23-year-old man to a retired couple to two working professionals to one working man supporting a wife and three kids).
Apr '11
Re: What Is the Women's Vote?
Diane Ellis, Ed.
What does it mean for a woman to vote on identity? Are we reducing the women's vote all the way down to the single issue of abortion? If so, we're basically resigned to the fact that no pro-life candidate will ever play well with women.
The problem with that is that it's just not true. As Ponnuru cites in his piece, pro-life Republicans have carried women in three out of the last eight elections. · 9 minutes ago
To start with, I don't think that Ponnuru's data point there is terribly helpful to his argument; we haven't won women for 24 years. Back when we did, Bush won men by 16%, women by 1%. Reagan, likewise, won women by 1%, men by 17%.
Nonetheless, of course I don't just mean abortion. The thing that Ramesh is complaining about, and that I defend, for instance, is not abortion. In Mitt's case, the only reframing I can see on the life issue is his using Ann to argue against embryonic stem cell research, focusing on it being wrong to research treatments for her MS by farming human life.
Apr '12
Re: What Is the Women's Vote?
Women are made by their culture and life experience, like men. But our estrogen is strongest during our thirties, making us emotional which is good for mothering and writing. Once we get to our fifties, we get a new zest and are doing careers and then grand mothering.Mitt's choice if wife is critical and Michelle did a great job helping Obama win by being by his side, wearing affordable J. Crew, having cute kids and being in love. Painting a wall in a community centre helps too. going on Opra and tv shows.Ann may have to wear Lands End and sustainable clothing. She needs to show she cares about Middle and lower class activities. Maybe show up on Celebrity Apprentice to help fund raise for one of her charities, make sure it is for diverse kids. She did well on Piers Morgan. What about on the cover of a magazine for health or readers digest, good Housekeeping would not be such a good choice.If she can be seen to be the woman you would like to have over for a glass of wine, she will be the biggest asset. Michelle did do that.
Apr '11
Re: What Is the Women's Vote?
Leporello: Women don't vote as women any more than men vote as men - although the hope that womenwill vote as a bloc is as present today as it was during the women's suffrage movement.
As I understand it, a major distinction is between married women and single women. Married women tend to vote Republican; single women tend to vote Democratic.
There's no use talking about "the women's vote" any more than we should talk about "household income" (since a household can be, for instance, anything from a single 23-year-old man to a retired couple to two working professionals to one working man supporting a wife and three kids). · 7 minutes ago
With all demographic analysis, you can drill down to get different answers than you do at a macro level. I do think you go too far in denying women voting as women totally. The gap is too large, too consistent, too robust, and too pervasive to be coincidence.
Women aren't a block that can be converted on mass, true, but there are a lot of them. Moving one woman in 50 with these efforts would be a very big deal indeed.
Mar '11
Re: What Is the Women's Vote?
I don't see this as an attempt to court the female vote. I see this as a bridging technique and I think we'll see a lot more of it.
When Obama says "Women" Romney will say "Women and this economy"
When Obama says "Defense" Romney will say "Defense and this economy"
When Obama says "Education" Romney will say "Education and this economy"
Get ready to be bored.
Jul '10
Re: What Is the Women's Vote?
I agree with Ramesh about not pandering to women. Seriously, aside from abortion issues, what are women’s issues with respect to voting? Aren't they the same as men's – even abortion, for that matter? Liberals say they want gov't out of women's bodies (except for birth control and abortion) and bedrooms – but are content to have government's tentacles wrapped tightly around every other facet of our lives.
And why oh why does abortion play such a huge role? Wouldn't it be wonderful to be able to change most people's hearts on the subject so it would no longer be such a polarizing subject? Altho, there does seem to be a slight movement in that direction. Oops. There goes the feminists' primary issue...
Feb '12
Re: What Is the Women's Vote?
James Of England
With all demographic analysis, you can drill down to get different answers than you do at a macro level. I do think you go too far in denying women voting as women totally. The gap is too large, too consistent, too robust, and too pervasive to be coincidence...
If a candidate wants to gain voters who happen to be women, he will have to focus on particular groups of women. Groups of women are as different from each other as women overall are different from men.
If women have been voting more Democratic, the reason is likely not that "women" favor Democrats but that single women, or professional women, or atheist women, are more numerous than those who are married or who are stay-at-home mothers or who are religious, etc.
Feb '12
Re: What Is the Women's Vote?
James Of England: The third is straight identity politics; all the recent emphasis on Mitt the family man and on Ann, are good examples of this.
As conservatives, I think we're right to want our candidates to avoid pandering on substance, so we're left with a choice of persuading people that capitalism benefits them, that our candidates connect personally with them, wishful thinking, or some kind of combination. I prefer to go light on daydreams. · 6 minutes ago
I don't know about that. I think bringing to light the damaging effects that the policies of the left have had on women is really important and reaches women who would typically vote left. For example, having to make the choice to not get married because it would effect their benefits, or not going to work because they lack the skill set and educational background to find employment that would be enough in compensation to make it reasonable to even think about going to work. I think it would help him to make the case that his policies will give women more choices about work, family and finances instead of just accepting what they can get from government.
Jun '10
Re: What Is the Women's Vote?
Women stand by the reliable man in their life, but in too many cases the only reliable man in their life is the constellation of government bureaucracies that help pay the bills. I think that makes Barack Obama their father-in-law or something.
Apr '11
Re: What Is the Women's Vote?
Leporello
If a candidate wants to gain voters who happen to be women, he will have to focus on particular groups of women. Groups of women are as different from each other as women overall are different from men.
If women have been voting more Democratic, the reason is likely not that "women" favor Democrats but that single women, or professional women, or atheist women, are more numerous than those who are married or who are stay-at-home mothers or who are religious, etc. · 2 minutes ago
Agreed. I was pushing back against the suggestion that courting the women's vote was unnecessary or bad. The details of how you do that are, of course, more like what you're saying here. Ramesh is arguing against courting, in this instance, women who care about women struggling for the work; I'd guess that this was a mix of traditional moderate feminists, women who are struggling to find work themselves, and women with friends and family in the latter category.
The "war on moms" stuff goes after a different demographic. Mitt pioneered microtargetting in 2002, and I expect him and Obama to be extremely aware of the point you make.
Apr '11
Re: What Is the Women's Vote?
Natalie
I don't know about that. I think bringing to light the damaging effects that the policies of the left have had on women is really important and reaches women who would typically vote left. For example, having to make the choice to not get married because it would effect their benefits, or not going to work because they lack the skill set and educational background to find employment that would be enough in compensation to make it reasonable to even think about going to work. I think it would help him to make the case that his policies will give women more choices about work, family and finances instead of just accepting what they can get from government. · 4 minutes ago
These are examples of what I was trying to describe as the second strategy in comment #6. I think we're agreeing, but you're quoting #6 and suggesting we disagree. Could you unpack the way that I've been erroneous or unclear?
Apr '11
Re: What Is the Women's Vote?
Alainnah Robertson: Mitt's choice if wife is critical and Michelle did a great job helping Obama win by being by his side, wearing affordable J. Crew, having cute kids and being in love.....
If she can be seen to be the woman you would like to have over for a glass of wine.
It's worth noting that the combination of occasionally wearing cheap things while mostly wearing designer only makes you look good, frugal, and normal if the press covers for you. I don't know much about Ann's childhood, but the Mitt was certainly raised in the sort of wealthy family where irrational lengths were gone to to save money, and still relishes middle seat discounts on budget airlines, cheap golf club offers, and stuff like that. To the charge that this is fake, I tend to point out that it was his lifestyle when he was a 6 year old. His father, of course, had been poor.
Still, when you see it in the press, there is a strong consensus that it is fake, whereas Michelle's wearing cheap clothes explicitly to make a point was treated as genuine.
Mormon problem italicized. Not even coffee.
Feb '12
Re: What Is the Women's Vote?
James Of England
Agreed. I was pushing back against the suggestion that courting the women's vote was unnecessary or bad. The details of how you do that are, of course, more like what you're saying here. Ramesh is arguing against courting, in this instance, women who care about women struggling for the work; I'd guess that this was a mix of traditional moderate feminists, women who are struggling to find work themselves, and women with friends and family in the latter category.
The "war on moms" stuff goes after a different demographic. Mitt pioneered microtargetting in 2002, and I expect him and Obama to be extremely aware of the point you make. · 35 minutes ago
Got it. I'm in favor of courting everyone whom one can possibly court without compromising core principles or pushing away a key group. I agree with Ramesh's warning, and with your other points.
I didn't realize Romney had pioneered microtargeting. Good for him, and that is a sign that his campaign could be innovative in addition to being very well-organized and efficient. Will be interesting to watch the campaign's operations and tactics from this perspective.
Feb '12
Re: What Is the Women's Vote?
James,
What I meant was I agree with Ponnuru that, as a general matter, one shouldn't try to court "women" as a whole, but I also agree that, in this particular case, the "war on moms" approach is not courting women as a whole.