'What Is Clear Is That Damascus Has Joined The Revolt'
From Reuters this morning:
Syria's defense minister and President Bashar al-Assad's brother in-law were killed in a suicide bomb attack in Damascus on Wednesday, in the most serious blow to Assad's high command in a 16-month-old revolt.
It's not clear whether the attack was supposed to get Assad, too. The intelligence chief and interior minister were also wounded. The attack targeted a meeting of ministers and heads of security agencies. An army barracks near the head of state's palace was also targeted and fires there resulted. And fighting also erupted in other neighborhoods, mainly Sunni Muslim districts (Assad and the ruling elite belong to an offshoot sect of Shi'ite Islam).
Rebel fighters have called the intensified guerrilla attacks in recent days, which have targeted shabbiha buses, unmarked intelligence patrols and armored vehicles in the capital, the battle "for the liberation of Damascus" after 16 months of revolt.
But senior opposition figures took a more nuanced view.
"It is going to be difficult to sustain supply lines and the rebels may have to make a tactical withdrawal at one point, like they did in other cities," veteran opposition activist Fawaz Tello said from Istanbul.
"But what is clear is that Damascus has joined the revolt," Tello, a Damascene, told Reuters. "By hitting well known Sunni districts of the city, such as Midan, the regime is exposing the sectarian nature of the crackdown."
Sounds like a goat rodeo. And later today the UN is scheduled to vote on a resolution that tells Assad to stop using heavy weapons in towns and cities or else ... sanctions and stuff. Russia has said it will block the move.
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Comments:
Jan '11
Re: 'What Is Clear Is That Damascus Has Joined The Revolt'
Thank God for the U.N.
Lord knows how bad it would be without their help!
Oct '11
Re: 'What Is Clear Is That Damascus Has Joined The Revolt'
A lot of what you need to know about the UN is encapsulated in the scene from Hotel Rwanda when Nick Nolte's character, a UN soldier, is escorting a small group of Tutsis to safety when they are attacking by a group of Hutus wielding machetes. Nolte's character is armed, but he's not allowed to engage in combat, so he fires into the ground at the Hutus' feet. They are undeterred.
Sep '10
Re: 'What Is Clear Is That Damascus Has Joined The Revolt'
The people in Syria who were were in the streets cheering after 9/11 and the people who encouraged them are fighting each other. Why does anyone want someone to get in the way?
Jun '10
Re: 'What Is Clear Is That Damascus Has Joined The Revolt'
Good news and bad news, I suppose. Assad's Alawite sect is Shi'ite representing maybe 15% of the population. Will Assad's removal mean that ties to Iran are broken? Will this effectively cut off supplies to Hezbollah in south Lebanon? Or will an ascendant Sunni Islam mean even worse trouble for the region? Sometimes the options are between bad and worse.
Re: 'What Is Clear Is That Damascus Has Joined The Revolt'
I had a background chat with someone in our government highly knowledgeable about the region. She explained that the main reason nothing was being done to intervene, even though our government is filled with people who love nothing more than to intervene in other people's civil conflicts, is that all the other options for leadership in the region were somehow much worse than Assad.
Re: 'What Is Clear Is That Damascus Has Joined The Revolt'
Our government has condemned the violence committed by the Assad regime repeatedly. I have yet to see any condemnation of violence committed by the opposition to the regime.
Mar '11
Re: 'What Is Clear Is That Damascus Has Joined The Revolt'
I think Obama's one-time policy in Libya works perfectly in Syria: bomb whichever side is winning.
When one does not like either alternative, why allow a choice? Right now, Syria is no threat to its neighbors. Keep the status quo as long as possible.
Mar '11
Re: 'What Is Clear Is That Damascus Has Joined The Revolt'
Two things about this story are pretty interesting.
First, there were some mighty big frogs on that particular lily pad. The attackers' intelligence was very, very good.
Second, the claim that Assad wasn't present: either that is a flat-out lie (in which case the intelligence was even better) or those mighty big frogs were meeting without him present. One wonders if it was without his knowledge as well. If that doesn't worry Assad, he's not paying attention.
Dec '10
Re: 'What Is Clear Is That Damascus Has Joined The Revolt'
Russia's excuse du jour for opposing a call for Assad to step down is that "a significant proportion of Syrians support him." That seems increasingly difficult to say with a straight face, though Lavrov rivals Buster Keaton as a "great stone face."
Oct '11
Re: 'What Is Clear Is That Damascus Has Joined The Revolt'
Mollie, isn't it grossly insensitive to use the term "goat rodeo" in relation to the Arab world?
"Chinese fire drill" might be ok.
Apr '11
Re: 'What Is Clear Is That Damascus Has Joined The Revolt'
Asma Assad, recent darling of Vogue and Obama campaign fund raiser Anna Wintour, has decamped for Russia.
Her husband is busy organizing and ethnically cleansing the new nation of Alawistan which will be coterminous with the Syrian governate of Latakia, the Syrian Alawi homeland. The city of Latakia, fifth largest city in Syria, is the probable capital. The Russian Mediterranean naval base of Tartus will be safely inside Alawistan. Between the Russians and the Alawites it will be a defensible enclave and still allow Iran and the Assad regime to support Hezbollah and other activities across the border with Lebanon.
It will be interesting to see what the Turks have to say about their new neighbor.
Kurdistan, the Kurdish homeland, is getting a large addition in form of Kurdish Syria.
Edited on July 19, 2012 at 6:33pmDec '10
Re: 'What Is Clear Is That Damascus Has Joined The Revolt'
A few observations:
- Alawistan doesn't have a border with Iran. Thus it doesn't provide a useful transit route to resupply Hezbollah with Iranian weapons, and it will need all the weapons it has to defend itself.
- The rest of Syria will not tolerate a separate Alawistan. There is natural gas wealth off the Syrian coast, and there will be no incentive to let Assad steal that from the rest of Syria.
- The rest of Syria has a revenge motive to wipe out Alawistan, now or later.
If the Russians aren't willing to insert ground forces, they won't be able to save Assad even in a separate Alawistan.
Apr '11
Re: 'What Is Clear Is That Damascus Has Joined The Revolt'
Much of Iran's supply chain to Syria is by sea and can remain so.
Remember, Syria borders Iraq and Turkey in the east. Iran is 200km from the eastern Syrian border. The northeast tip of Syria is now part of the newly enlarged Kurdistan.
The rest of Syria will have it's hands full with civil war until some Sunni power base, probably the Ikhwan, take control. Even then they will be weak and war ravaged. I expect an all Alawite and Christian Alawistan and experienced Alawite troops can defend themselves with Russian support short of requiring Russian troops. That said there are already Russian marines either in Tartus or en-route. Putin shows no sign of relinquishing Tartus.
Syria population 22.5 million total
Kurds - 2 million
Alawi - 2.7 million
Christian - 2.5 million
Druze - 675,000
About 25% of the population will probably flee to either Kurdistan or Alawistan. The Kurdish Peshmerga, the second best fighting force in the Mideast, will consolidate Syrian Kurdistan. The Christians who fear a fundamentalist Syria are presently allied with the Alawis and will seek refuge in Alawistan. The Druze would also flee. Alawistan would have a population of 5 million+.