What Hath the Tea-Party Wrought?
Back when Christine O’Donnell beat Mike Castle and Joe Miller defeated Lisa Murkowski in the Republican Senatorial primaries in Delaware and Alaska, I acknowledged that I probably would have voted for the establishment candidates on a calculation that they would be more likely to win in November. I added, however, that their defeat might contain a silver lining.
Castle and Murkowski are what I call “patronage Republicans.” They are popular because they bring home the bacon. I doubt that Murkowski would have campaigned against Obamacare, and I am confident that Castle would not have done so. It was my view then – as it is my view now – that politics depends on public sentiment and that the one sure way to lose an argument is to fail to make it. Whatever defects as candidates O’Donnell, Miller, Sharron Angle, and Ken Buck may have had, you could rely on them to make the argument. And sometimes, as Abraham Lincoln showed in 1858, you can lose an election while articulating an argument that will win in the end.
If you are inclined to regret the nomination of O’Donnell, Miller, Angle, and Buck, consider what Mickey Kaus has to say today about the defeat of the DREAM Act in the Senate:
The Tea Parties did it. Not only had they threatened establishment Republicans with primary opposition, but they had actually beaten one ... two ... three of them. Nothing like fresh heads on pikes to, er, reinforce a persuasive (to my mind) policy argument. Score one for losing Delaware Tea Partier Christine O'Donnell, who knocked off establishment pick Rep. Mike Castle (who voted for DREAM) in the GOP primary. Even score one for Alaskan Joe Miller. He probably alienated Republican Lisa Murkowski by beating her in the primary, and ultimately she won reelection anyway as a write-in. But that's just one lost Senate vote. By my count, Miller's primary coup may have helped gain around ten votes by terrifying GOP incumbents who might otherwise have been tempted by the prospect of a feel-good, bipartisan, MSM-approved pro-DREAM stand.
I would add that the same analysis applies to Mitch McConnell’s ability to hold his caucus together and force Harry Reid to withdraw the $1.1 trillion omnibus budget bill this past week. As I argued some time ago, political parties tend to oscillate between two extremes – a dedication to patronage and a devotion to principles. In the right circumstances, little harm comes from a desire to bring home the bacon. But, in a crisis, this country needs principled partisans. The Tea Party has done this country a world of good.
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Dec '10
Re: What Hath the Tea-Party Wrought?
Ah, the Delaware race, the sine qua non of the tea party battle. Much can be said about the races the Tea Party lost. I think a couple (Angle and Miller) would have done well simply with better political consulting. There's a reason why politicians act like politicians -- because that's who we vote for.
One thing that the Tea Party did was put the megaphone in the hands of the silent majority. It's not easy being a conservative, but it's very easy to be a liberal, especially with the media consistently reinforcing that view.
The squishes can be told that they're in trouble if they go off the reservation, but at the same time, that they will be supported if they stay on it. There need to be carrots as well as sticks.
Also, don't discount McCain in the defeat of DREAM. He was a big supporter of the first version and support seemed to deflate when he came out against this one. He has seemed to come to the point of view that he is a bit miffed at the Dems at having been denied the presidency.
Oct '10
Re: What Hath the Tea-Party Wrought?
True words. Mitch McConnell has a talent for reading the mood of the country and translating that into the force behind the bull whip. When the GOP could count on Conservative desperation to bring votes to their candidate, no matter how tepid they were, McConnell correctly read that they could get away with the statist position. The Party crowd demanded that their Tea be served HOT, and McConnell got the message, as have a significantly growing percentage of the GOP faithful, who no longer consider the GOP to have a future without the Tea Party crowd.
Jul '10
Re: What Hath the Tea-Party Wrought?
That weasel Orrin Hatch appears to have gotten the message.
After years of pushing for the DREAM Act, he sat out the vote this time around. Which, I suppose, tells us that though he couldn't bring himself to vote against it, he no longer felt secure enough to vote for it.
Of course his stable-mate, the ousted Bob Bennett, did vote for DREAM, along with George Voinovich and two Republican Senators who believe themselves to be untouchable: Lisa Murkowski and Dick Lugar.
Dec '10
Re: What Hath the Tea-Party Wrought?
Murkowski is untouchable now, she doesn't have progeny of her own to promote to a seat. Lugar is, surprisingly, running again. He will be 80 in 2012. A lot of Hoosiers thought he'd retire.
Jul '10
Re: What Hath the Tea-Party Wrought?
Not only is Lugar running again, he's running around giving interviews to the New York Times, reminding the Tea Partiers that he's an Indiana institution. He considers himself invulnerable to a primary defeat. And, of course, he's an avid START enthusiast.
Aug '10
Re: What Hath the Tea-Party Wrought?
The Tea Party hath wrought goodness.
But it is a maddening shame that GOP politicians have to fear their supporters more than they fear the opposition before they will actually 'walk the talk' and take a principled stand.
May '10
Re: What Hath the Tea-Party Wrought?
There are indeed encouraging signs of polarization.
Aug '10
Re: What Hath the Tea-Party Wrought?
Welcome, AmishDude (name goes well with your picture, I must say).
Do you mind my asking what's your favorite kind of math? (Sorry to go off-topic, but AmishDude's profile says he's a math professor, and I'm nosy about things mathematical).
Dec '10
Re: What Hath the Tea-Party Wrought?
Thanks, MFR. I work in extremal combinatorics, mostly graph theory. It's the computer science end of mathematics.
Jul '10
Re: What Hath the Tea-Party Wrought?
Thanks for the reminder, Paul. I would also like to note that the list of Tea Party "disaster" nominees got shorter between primaries and the general election, and that some candidates jumped on the Tea Party band wagon, invited or not, toward the end. The Tea Party does not command by fiat, but against the leeches intimidation will do. I've started my list of members whose primary challenges I would contribute to.
Dec '10
Re: What Hath the Tea-Party Wrought?
Lugar reminds me of Biden. Biden is a foreign policy expert inasmuch as he is always wrong. It's one of those areas where experience is completely independent of expertise.
May '10
Re: What Hath the Tea-Party Wrought?
Couldn't agree more with this analysis.
The Tea Party has put the fear of God back in the Republican party.
It's also done a nifty job of revealing the true colors of establishment figures like Crist, Castle and Murkowski. They are worse than liberals, because they pretend to be on our side while they undermine us at virtually every turn.
And it's given the lie to the notion that only moderate Republicans can win in blue states.
Aug '10
Re: What Hath the Tea-Party Wrought?
Murkowski will be an interesting one to watch.
I do see a vengeful, vindictive 'Hell hath no fury like a woman scorned' streak; in her. Well, OK, I see more than just a streak . It seems to be her essence. I can easily see retribution as this woman's primary motivating factor and expect she'll cast more than one vote out of sheer spite, with malice.
Edited on Dec 19, 2010 at 1:11pmMay '10
Re: What Hath the Tea-Party Wrought?
Another thing O'Donnell did. She wrested control of the Republican party of Delaware from establishment liberal hands, and let formerly demoralized conservatives know they have a voice and they are not alone.
Aug '10
Re: What Hath the Tea-Party Wrought?
Combinatorics? Whee! (Only wish I liked computers better myself.)
May '10
Re: What Hath the Tea-Party Wrought?
Obama earned himself the permanent animus of the Arizonan with his put-downs during the "negotiations" over Obamacare. It was very public and disdainful ("I won" "you are acting like we are still campaigning") That petulant little man in the White House is finding that, as Dennis Miller said, "Payback is a Behar."
May '10
Re: What Hath the Tea-Party Wrought?
Someone explain to me how O'Donnell accomplished anything here? She lost to Coons. Coons voted "yes".
Lugar needs to be taught a lesson- he is one of the worst establishment types, in a state where they ought to be able to do better.
But Mickey's comment about O'Donnell is dumb. Had Delaware voted "no" on DREAM, it might have meant something. As it is, there is another young far lefty Delaware senator settling in for 25 years or so.
Sep '10
Re: What Hath the Tea-Party Wrought?
Duane Oyen,
Someone explain to me how O'Donnell accomplished anything here?
Paul Rahe (and others) just did. If you still don't get it, you are beyond hope. Perhaps you should explain to us why you are unable to to get outside of your preconceptions and see other points of view. You don't have to agree, but willful rejection of other factors and consequences doesn't wash.
Edited on Dec 20, 2010 at 4:42amSep '10
Re: What Hath the Tea-Party Wrought?
Not only do elections matter. Primary elections matter too!
Edited on Dec 20, 2010 at 5:06amMay '10
Re: What Hath the Tea-Party Wrought?
But this is the nature of deep disagreement, no? Those who agree with Duane feel precisely this same way about those who agree with you: No matter how carefully we craft our arguments, no matter how many times we say it, you all still just don't get it.
Nothing nefarious taking place on either side. We just disagree.