What Happens If Paul Runs as a Third Party Candidate?
In 1912 Teddy Roosevelt, as the candidate of the new Progressive party drew off 27% of the vote. Combined with Republican Taft’s 23% it would have swamped Democrat Wilson’s 42%. We know how that story ended. Wilson was a main force in pushing our nation in the direction of the liberal agenda. In 1996 Ross Perot represented the Reform party and attracted 19% of the vote and almost certainly handed the election to Bill Clinton who received only 43%. In 2000 Republicans profited when Ralph Nader managed to attract 2.7% of the vote as the Green Party candidate which most think turned the tide in favor of George W. Bush who beat Al Gore in the electoral college but actually lost the popular vote by .5%.
Ron Paul is now polling just under 10% in many Republican primary polls. He was quoted in 2008 saying, “At a time when 60 percent of the American people are dissatisfied with their presidential choices this could be the year that third-party option brings in a big chunk of the vote.”
The Iowa straw poll, if it is important at all, is at least a measure of the enthusiasm of a candidate’s supporters. After his impressive showing in the Iowa Straw Poll Paul has expressed frustration at the media’s unwillingness to take him seriously. Right now Republicans are excited about the chance of beating incumbent Obama. What happens, however, if Paul decides to mount a run as a third party candidate? His campaign manager said,“He has no plans, no interest. It’s as close to zero as it can be without absolutely ruling it out (my italics).” Scary possibility!
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Jan '11
Re: What Happens If Paul Runs as a Third Party Candidate?
I think Obama may be in so much trouble that a Paul run may not prove fatal. I think he is easy to discredit and made to look like the buffoonish nut he is, so I don't think he would draw anything over 5% of the vote, and it would probably be even less than that. If Obama can be held to less than 47% of the vote, Paul running probably wouldn't matter.
Edited on Aug 18, 2011 at 9:52amJan '11
Re: What Happens If Paul Runs as a Third Party Candidate?
I would also point out that I think a Paul candidacy would also pull a significant amount of support from Obama. I think a lot of young, idealistic voters who believed in the Hope and Change rhetoric and have subsequently become disillusioned with Obama might find Paul's Libertarianism attractive.
Mar '11
Re: What Happens If Paul Runs as a Third Party Candidate?
I hope you are right. I also hope that Ron Paul knows (I think he must) that he would be frustrating his own purposes by drawing support away from a Republican. But he is so quirky that I'm not sure that would matter to him.
Aug '11
Re: What Happens If Paul Runs as a Third Party Candidate?
This may be true, but as Hugh Hewitt as often said "If it's not close, they can't cheat." We can't just get past the margin of victory; we need to get past the margin of fraud. And a win by a wide margin will be a clear rejection of the Democrats -- and I really want to see that happen.
But I also think Ron Paul isn't so crazy that he'll risk sending Obama back to the White House for a second term by running as a third party. I think it's more likely we'll see Ralph Nader jump into the race than Ron Paul.
Edited on Aug 18, 2011 at 10:27amAug '10
Re: What Happens If Paul Runs as a Third Party Candidate?
How do you think we ended up with Governor Mark (the nutjob) Dayton? A third party "Moderate" got 90,000 votes, most of which would've gone to the GOP candidate who only lost by 8,000 votes.
You need to be a bit of an egomaniac to run for president but these third party guys are off the charts when it comes to ego. Let's hope Dr Paul isn't that big of an egomaniac.
Dec '10
Re: What Happens If Paul Runs as a Third Party Candidate?
Paul would pull a lot of anti-war and Truther votes from the Democrats. I see a number of my friends who would otherwise be die-hard liberals speaking admiringly of Paul.
Aug '10
Re: What Happens If Paul Runs as a Third Party Candidate?
DrewInWisconsin
This may be true, but as Hugh Hewitt as often said "If it's not close, they can't cheat." We can't just get past the margin of victory; we need to get past the margin of fraud.
Think real hard about how they could have stolen the last one. First there was the illegal money, then the unions, the students, the illegals, ad nauseum. It is certainly not the first time, alot of us were alive in 1960 when it happened. And the opposition will swear that 2000 was the same ( though I doubt it-being a proper gentleman) .We need to start throwing planks out of the back of the truck right now to Paul and whatever other constituency we can garner.
May '10
Re: What Happens If Paul Runs as a Third Party Candidate?
One of the reasons I'm so hoping Ryan gets in is that his candidacy would dramatically undermine the rationale for a third party candidate.
I'm very much afraid that if Perry or Romney is the nominee, Ron Paul or someone else will go for it.
Aug '10
Re: What Happens If Paul Runs as a Third Party Candidate?
I do think it behooves the Republicans to keep Dr Paul in the debates, if for no other reason than to keep from ticking he or his supporters off so that a third party run by him - or vote by his supporters - becomes less likely.
Jul '11
Re: What Happens If Paul Runs as a Third Party Candidate?
Ron Paul has his son's political future to think about. Rand Paul has more credibility with mainstream conservative Republicans but his political capital would be shot if he supported a third party run by his father (which he would have to do, of course, out of family loyalty). That alone should be enough to prevent Ron from going down that road. But, then again, nobody ever accused him of being rational.
May '10
Re: What Happens If Paul Runs as a Third Party Candidate?
I agree with the point that a Paul run could hurt Rand's political future, but I do not at all agree that "family loyalty" would require him to support his father's bid.
A elected Representative has duties to his constituents.
Edited on Aug 18, 2011 at 5:45pmFeb '11
Re: What Happens If Paul Runs as a Third Party Candidate?
If Ron Paul, or any other Republican, should choose to run as a third party candidate in 2012, this country should resurrect the Athenian procedure of Ostracism. Mr Paul, or said other Republican, should then become the first recipient to be so dishonored.
Apr '11
Re: What Happens If Paul Runs as a Third Party Candidate?
I agree that a Ron Paul, excuse me, a Dr. Ron Paul run would at worst be a wash, but what about a third party challenge by Huntsman ?
Edited on Aug 18, 2011 at 10:55pmAug '10
Re: What Happens If Paul Runs as a Third Party Candidate?
katievs: One of the reasons I'm so hoping Ryan gets in is that his candidacy would dramatically undermine the rationale for a third party candidate.
I'm very much afraid that if Perry or Romney is the nominee, Ron Paul or someone else will go for it. · Aug 18 at 5:31pm
I like Ryan too and I think he has the stones to do the job, but support of his candidacy requires one to drop the "executive experience" requirement.
Perry is the only 'Not-Romney' with political executive experience. That said, they all meet the 'Syphilitic Camel' rule.
Ron Paul simply spouts crazy talk.
May '10
Re: What Happens If Paul Runs as a Third Party Candidate?
Instugator
I like Ryan too and I think he has the stones to do the job, but support of his candidacy requires one to drop the "executive experience" requirement.
I said somewhere in another thread that executive experience isn't an absolute requirement, but something comparable is.
Prof. Rahe calls it an executive temperament and says Ryan has it.
The very fact that Ryan published his Roadmap for America alone and way before debt reduction was cool reveals him to be a man of bold, risk-taking leadership.
Further, the fact that he's lived so long in Washington, worked effectively within its system, and won the respect of colleagues on both sides of the aisle without losing his moral footing, proves him to be a man of unusually strong character and personal integrity.
He knows his way around town. He knows how it works; he know who he can and can't trust; he know where the pitfalls are...
He's also very practiced in debate and in dealing with a hostile media.
He's got plenty of experience.
Nov '10
Re: What Happens If Paul Runs as a Third Party Candidate?
Richard Young
What happens, however, if Paul decides to mount a run as a third party candidate?
That's easy- Obama wins. Despite BHO's dismal record in office, the 2012 election, regardless of the Republican candidate, is by no means a lock for the GOP. Paul would siphon some GOP/Independent voters as did Perot.
Let's not even entertain this possibility!
May '11
Re: What Happens If Paul Runs as a Third Party Candidate?
I think it was in 1992 that Clinton won with 43% and independent Perot's help, Perot only scored about 8% with Reform in 1996.
As for Ron Paul, surely he's smart enough to know he doesn't have a chance without party backing, and a third-party candidacy would take far more votes from the Republican side than Democrat (he is a Republican, after all). He'll be 76 on Saturday (happy birthday) and he's making a grand effort to keep the libertarian flame alive in this primary season, so he can pass it to someone else for the next one.
Feb '11
Re: What Happens If Paul Runs as a Third Party Candidate?
Ron Paul is the reason I conflate libertarianism with egocentrism with hubris. Whatever he talks about, the substance communicated to me is that it's all about him.
Nov '10
Re: What Happens If Paul Runs as a Third Party Candidate?
X, Y, and Z compete for votes.
X running alone would likely beat Z.
Y running alone would probably beat Z.
But Z would definitely beat X and Y running together.
X to Y: I'm running. You're not. Get lost.
Y to X: Why don't you get lost? I'd probably get elected then.
X to Y. This is my race, not yours. Don't you get it?
Y says to X: Aren't you invalidly presuming ownership rights here?
X says to Y: Who are you, some crazy libertarian nutcase?
Y says to X: Hmm. Gas will reach $2? Texas teaches creationism?
X says to Y: Whatever. You might not beat Z. And I need the votes.
Y says to X: It's all my fault you can't appeal to enough people?
X says to Y: Sometimes limiting people's choice is better.
Y says to X: As with light bulbs?
X says to Y: Look, I just know what's best for America.
Y says to X: Like Obama and company?
X says to Y: It'll all change once I'm elected. Keep the hope alive.
Y says to X: (speechless)
Sep '10
Re: What Happens If Paul Runs as a Third Party Candidate?
The country is 15T. in debt and from reading most of the posts on Ricochet one would conclude that it is because of Obama and the Democratic Party. It is not, the future of the country has been put in jeopardy by the malfeasance of both political parties. Contemplating what it would look like to have Paul running against the Bush/Obama economy as a third party candidate in the current economic climate is one thing. Contemplating the same campaign when unemployment is at 15%, deficit projections have doubled and the Fed has almost been totally discredited is another thing. The worse things get the stronger Paul gets. He has been consistently opposed to both parties’ big government policies of 2 decades and from where I sit he has been correct to do so.