What Can We Hope (or Pray) For?
I would like to be better informed about the realistic possibilities for this election.
Let me start off by making some assumptions. First, I assume that Dennis Prager, George Will, Bill Kristol, and Paul Rahe among other luminaries are correct and that a Romney candidacy or presidency would be a disaster. Then I assume that the other candidates in the race are also deeply flawed, and that most of us have picked the candidates we are backing with little enthusiasm, thinking that each is the least bad of a bad lot. I think both of those assumptions can be reasonably argued, although I also recognize that there are people who will dissent from each of them.
Assuming, though, that these are true, what alternatives are there? What conceivable alternative, for example, does George Will have in mind when he delineates Romney’s weaknesses in such painful detail? With filing deadlines for many states now past, it looks as though we are stuck with our current candidate pool for the primaries, barring a miracle. (A few days ago, Western Chauvinist and I agreed in a private conversation to pray together for the upcoming election—and those of you who know our online views can probably guess the overall direction of our prayers. She and I are still holding out for the miracle. Anyone who wants to join us, feel free.)
But failing the miracle of having a candidate feel such a deep and sudden call of duty that he jumps into the race and runs in only some of the later primaries, can anything else happen? I’ve been told that the rules have now been set up in such a way that a brokered convention is no longer possible. Is that really true? If so, why? And, if not, can someone tell me how such a thing would work? It hasn’t happened in my lifetime, and so I really can't imagine it, but at this point I wonder if it's our best hope. Most importantly, in a brokered convention, can we get a candidate who hasn't actually run in the primaries? Is there still room in modern politics for the party to get together and call in someone because the party and the country needs him, even if he does not see it?
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Comments:
Oct '10
Re: What Can We Hope (or Pray) For?
Almost all of your alternatives are such long shots that prayer will be your only effective means of seeing them happen.
We seem to forget that the nature of politics is to defeat your opponent by articulating a vague alternative to his plan and attacking every adverb and adjective of his statements. In reality we can only really judge a candidate by his past actions.
Romney, Rick Perry and Ron Paul have the clearest track record among the political pro's currently in the running.
Herman Cain has the clearest track record of, and in fact is, the only non-professional in the race.
Each of the above men have a philosophy of leadership that can be discerned from their actions. In the end, that philosophy of governing, coupled with the effectiveness of past accomplishments is what we are voting for.
Or you can let the MSM select your candidate on a quiz show.
I'll take Herman Cain, with enthusiasm.
Edited on November 2, 2011 at 3:16pmNov '10
Re: What Can We Hope (or Pray) For?
Well, I'll take Herman Cain if I have to. But I am unenthusiastic. I am less unenthusiastic about Gingrich, but that isn't saying a whole lot. I can't remember an election when as many people as this were as unhappy as this about the slate of primary candidates.
May '10
Re: What Can We Hope (or Pray) For?
I'm hoping that the assumption that Romney would be a disaster is false.
I'm hoping that with great conservative leadership in the House and Senate, a Romney Presidency will prove better than our fears and good enough for the immediate need.
I was encouraged by Jay Nordlinger's comments to that effect the other day.
Nov '10
Re: What Can We Hope (or Pray) For?
katievs: I'm hoping that the assumption that Romney would be a disaster is false.
I'm hoping that with great conservative leadership in the House and Senate, a Romney Presidency will prove better than our fears and good enough for the immediate need.
I was encouraged by Jay Nordlinger's comments to that effect the other day.
That's two votes for rejecting my assumptions. But I'm still looking for the answer to my question contingent on my assumptions. Are there any alternatives still possible?
Nov '10
Re: What Can We Hope (or Pray) For?
PS: In googling for the link to the George Will piece, I came across an article by one (known to us) Conor Friedersdorf, in which he suggested that we vote for Huntsman or Gary Johnson. Somehow, that's not the solution I was looking for.
May '10
Re: What Can We Hope (or Pray) For?
Lucy Pevensie
katievs: I'm hoping that the assumption that Romney would be a disaster is false.
I'm hoping that with great conservative leadership in the House and Senate, a Romney Presidency will prove better than our fears and good enough for the immediate need.
I was encouraged by Jay Nordlinger's comments to that effect the other day.
That's two votes for rejecting my assumptions. But I'm still looking for the answer to my question contingent on my assumptions. Are there any alternatives still possible? · Nov 2 at 8:01am
I don't think so, barring a miracle.
Dec '10
Re: What Can We Hope (or Pray) For?
The hope is that one of the current candidates gets his act together and generates the enthusiasm that is currently lacking. Gingrich, warts and all, is a fantastically intelligent man and a great communicator of the conservative position. Cain is a very motivational leader and might learn to avoid the kind of mistakes he's been making lately. Perry is showing life of late and may turn out to be some of what we hoped for. Yes, this is arguing against one of your assumptions, but I see that as the only real hope. The other options are we unenthusiastically support whatever schlub we nominate and have a repeat performance of '08. If Romney is the nominee then we need enthusiasm to turn out the vote for a legislature that will force him to do the right thing. Romney is never going to generate that enthusiasm. If it's one of the others then there is still hope of an enthusiastic turnout of our base.
Nov '10
Re: What Can We Hope (or Pray) For?
So, specifically, are brokered conventions truly a thing of the past? If so, why?
And, if not, are brokered conventions bound to nominate someone who has actually been running?
May '10
Re: What Can We Hope (or Pray) For?
I keep saying, draft Jindal. By any means necessary.
But really, add me to the list with katievs and Lucy Pevensie. I don't want us to elect the "right person" in 2012, then walk away because we think the job is done. That's what the left did, in a presidential election that happened not too long ago (my memory is hazy; somebody remind me exactly when & who).
If Romney gets in, the right will be breathing down his neck. A coreless guy like that is susceptible to pressure. If we have a conservative Congress working with us, we might just be able to dismantle the regulatory state. Maybe.
Apr '11
Re: What Can We Hope (or Pray) For?
Lucy, I don't want to belittle or detract from your overall (very serious) point, but I just love the thought of a "Gingrich 2012: The Candidate We Are Less Unenthusiastic About!" bumper sticker.
Nov '10
Re: What Can We Hope (or Pray) For?
Oh, I've got lots of great slogans for this election. How about, "Vote for Candidate X. All the others were even worse."? Or "Vote Romney. Don't worry if you don't like his positions. He's probably lying."?
Edited on November 2, 2011 at 10:08pmMar '11
Re: What Can We Hope (or Pray) For?
Lucy Pevensie: Oh, I've got lots of great slogans four this election...
"Vote Romney. Don't worry if you don't like his positions. He's probably lying."? · Nov 2 at 10:39am
If you accomplish nothing else today you can at least say you got a bemused chuckle from one member of Ricochet.
Edited on November 2, 2011 at 7:35pmDec '10
Re: What Can We Hope (or Pray) For?
I'd love to hear someone answer Lucy's question about a brokered convention. Anyone?
Aug '10
Re: What Can We Hope (or Pray) For?
me too
Nov '10
Re: What Can We Hope (or Pray) For?
Squishy Blue RINO
me too · Nov 2 at 1:34pm
Thanks. Maybe I made the original post too long and too pious to get moved over to the Main Feed, where an insider might weigh in on that question. Anyone else want to try?
May '10
Re: What Can We Hope (or Pray) For?
Lucy Pevensie
Squishy Blue RINO
me too · Nov 2 at 1:34pm
Thanks. Maybe I made the original post too long and too pious to get moved over to the Main Feed, where an insider might weigh in on that question. Anyone else want to try? · Nov 2 at 2:10pm
Not sure about how the rules are structured, but I'll bet delegates are selected, when possible, based on their mindless loyalty. Plus, many are committed to their candidate on the first ballot. In the modern era, with excellent information flows, a candidate probably exercises lots of control over what kinds of people go to the convention on his or her behalf. Conventions would be populated exclusively by cocaine self-injection experiment monkeys exclusively, if the candidates could get away with it.
A convention floor dominated by undecided delegates open to argument and ready to negotiate is any candidate's nightmare.
Apr '11
Re: What Can We Hope (or Pray) For?
Technically it is possible, but practically it is difficult to see it happening. The leading candidate would have to be hard-stuck below the 50% + 1 threshold, unable to trade enough favors to push over the top. Earlier I couldn't see Romney (or anyone else) with a clear majority going into the convention, but it seems much more likely now.
Only if Romney and Cain (example) are stuck fast at 40% is a draft possible.
Dec '10
Re: What Can We Hope (or Pray) For?
The RNC had a rule change that makes the states voting after February but before April (i.e. all the Super Tuesday states) proportionally allocate their delegates. This could prevent someone like Romney from winning in the early states and wrapping up the nomination in March. If the delegates break too evenly in March it could prevent anyone from hitting 50%. At the very least, with the way polling is going right now, it looks like the primaries for states not on Super Tuesday will finally matter.
Nov '10
Re: What Can We Hope (or Pray) For?
I had heard about this rules change. I'm a bit excited that my vote may actually matter this time around--and I have been wondering whether it wouldn't be possible to keep anyone from hitting that 50%. It would help if a bunch of candidates would actually stay in.
Sep '10
Re: What Can We Hope (or Pray) For?
Lucy in dire circumstances I recommend praying the Litany of the Dominicans, though Pope Innocent IV would doubtless have other thoughts.
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