Were You Denied Your Government Check Today?
Tommy De Seno ·
Aug 2, 2011 at 8:16am
I just took a look at the calendar and realized it is August 2, the day America was supposed to hit skid row and people would be denied their government checks.
Our national debt has already exceeded our debt ceiling, which happened last month.
As I write this, 2/3rds of our representative government has not voted on the proposed debt deal.
As I predicted, government checkbooks are still filled with billions of dollars, everyone is at work, the sun is shining, the stock market is operating, birds are singing and no one is dead.
I know we’ve had our differences here on Ricochet about the pending legislation, but can we all agree August 2 was a manufactured scare on the order of bird flu and Y2K?
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Jan '11
Re: Were You Denied Your Government Check Today?
It was pretty well reported an understood that 8/2 was a rough guess and a couple of weeks ago I heard that we probably had at least another week before the money ran out.
May '10
Re: Were You Denied Your Government Check Today?
I'm not sure what the right word is - illiterate, innumerate, incompetent or all of the above to describe how most of the politicians and the population is mind numbingly ignorant of basic business concepts like cash flow, spending and a budget.
No spending was cut in this deal and we will continue to borrow hundreds of millions of dollars an hour for the next year and a half......
Feb '11
Re: Were You Denied Your Government Check Today?
I assume you mean that we would have had another week before we had to start prioritizing, not that we wouldn't actually have any funds or revenue streams.
I'm with Tommy on this one: whether it's 8/2 or next week or next year the deadline would have come and gone without calamity had we still been in negotiations or had we decided to get actual spending cuts in exchange for a debt limit increase or had nothing happened and we were forced to prioritize payments.
Yes Y2K and bird flu are apt comparisons, but since we're headed into presidential election season I prefer to focus our attention a little more and use TARP, stimulus, bank bailouts, and auto bailouts as more relevant comparisons of over-hyped crises that led to government bloat and overreach.
Re: Were You Denied Your Government Check Today?
Ran out? Really? What source said that? We aren't even remotely close to having empty checkbooks.
When many Americans add up assets and liabilities they are technically in the red, but their checkbooks can at the same time be fat with cash.
As I said, we exceeded the debt limit last month and no one noticed.
August 2 was a manufactured scare, and I resent the manufacture of it by government and the perpetuation of it by media.
Jan '11
Re: Were You Denied Your Government Check Today?
The consequences of not having enough money to pay all of our obligations and promises was certainly overhyped. I don't disagree with that. But it would have produced some serious difficulties for many people, and many functions and projects of our government, including some related to our security, would have been affected in significant ways. I don't see the point of minimizing that fact or downplaying the political consequences that could have accrued to people who were perceived as letting the problems happen. It wouldn't have been armageddon, but you can still lose a lot of standing and political capital for things well short of armageddon.
Feb '11
Re: Were You Denied Your Government Check Today?
By this standard, can't the whole conservative fiscal agenda - even in a more gradual timeframe - be seen as recklessly endangering significant projects and causing severe difficulties? Indeed that's already how the left characterizes the right broadly and the TP specifically. Yes, we will have to prioritize and figure out what really matters to us, but either we can defend the conservative fiscal project as providing common benefits that far outweigh the costs of temporary bumps, or we should stop getting in the way of Progressive governance.
Jun '11
Re: Were You Denied Your Government Check Today?
It's an odd world where one loses "a lot of standing and political capital" for being thoughtful and prudent while others wave and bow to grateful applause for continuing a program that borrows 40% of its daily operating funds.
The way you can be certain that this deal is a dog's breakfast is that the Democrats and their handmaiden media are trying to hang it around the neck of their mortal enemy, the so-called Tea Party. "Congratulations you terrorist, hostage-taking, knuckle-dragging, racist, immature Tea Partiers. You won!" say the legacy-media types, the Democratic Party elites, and unfortunately more than a few Republicans and center-right pundits.
But those who actually identify with fiscal conservatism-- Tea Party or not-- sure don't feel victorious today. They know they didn't win anything.
Jan '11
Re: Were You Denied Your Government Check Today?
Not in the same way, I don't think. You are right that it is in some ways a question of degree. But at a certain point a change in degree becomes a change in kind. Changing the make up of the economy and the role of the government over the period of few years is something that allows people to make adjustments and if they don't we at least have the argument that we gave fair warning and enough time to make preparations. Pulling one and a half trillion dollars out of the economy all at once has the potential to leave an awfully ugly mark rather suddenly. And even though the wound would heal in time, many won't be able to get past the initial sight of blood.
Jan '11
Re: Were You Denied Your Government Check Today?
Right, but the game isn't over, and we at least didn't throw a pick six, like we often do. At this point we're playing a field position game. Once we get better numbers on our side, we can make a push for the end zone.
Okay, the football analogy might have gotten a little tenuous there. Can I get a "Whoa, Nellie!!"
Feb '11
Re: Were You Denied Your Government Check Today?
BThompson
Not in the same way, I don't think. You are right that it is in some ways a question of degree. But at a certain point a change in degree becomes a change in kind. Changing the make up of the economy and the role of the government over the period of few years is something that allows people to make adjustments and if they don't we at least have the argument that we gave fair warning and enough time to make preparations. Pulling one and a half trillion dollars out of the economy all at once has the potential to leave an awfully ugly mark rather suddenly.
Jan '11
Re: Were You Denied Your Government Check Today?
I don't think so, but even if it were, you can't ignore political realities, unless you're willing to throw out the political system that this all exists within. You're not going to replace our current political system in the time frame you are thinking in. Sorry.
You may be right, but as I explained above, at least we'll have the argument that we warned them and gave the time to prepare. That matters.
True, but the money doesn't just reinvest itself back into the economy overnight, especially in the context of severe political uncertainty. It would have an obvious and not unpleasant affect, pretending it wouldn't isn't serious.
Edited on Aug 2, 2011 at 10:17amJun '11
Re: Were You Denied Your Government Check Today?
The ratings agencies now have no more data to collect. They can calculate what this bill does to the debt and the larger economy. The only possible reason they won't downgrade US debt from the current AAA status is political pressure. My guess is that all too soon we will all be paying for this "best we could do" bill.
So, while I would like to join in your "Whoa, Nellie!" BT... it's likely too late. Nellie is running for the cliff and is now out of the range of our collective cries. (Sorry, for that Keith Jackson metaphor extension.)
Edited on Aug 2, 2011 at 10:33amFeb '11
Re: Were You Denied Your Government Check Today?
BThompson
I don't think so, but even if it were, you can't ignore political realities, unless you're willing to throw out the political system that this all exists within. You're not going to replace our current political system in the time frame you are thinking in. Sorry.
No need to be sorry, sometimes you just can't help being wrong ;)
Really, I'm not ignoring political reality. The reality was that doing nothing would have gotten us over $1 trillion in real cuts.
I think you overestimate the electoral importance of a "warning". It will be little consolation.
I'm pretending no such thing; and avoiding taking our medicine because it's unpleasant is even less serious.
Jun '11
Re: Were You Denied Your Government Check Today?
By the way, we were told this bill was needed to keep the markets from selling off. I don't want to be the one to say this but, um, it isn't exactly working out that way.
"Default" was never an issue for the markets-- traders never believed that would happen. However, facing the additional costs of a debt downgrade is defintely damaging markets and has been since the beginning of last week-- the pace is quickening now. The "best we could do" bill didn't address the real problem-- in fact the President just came out vowing a renewed push for higher taxes and, gasp, more stimulus spending. Traders added to their short positions in response.
Edited on Aug 2, 2011 at 10:54amJan '11
Re: Were You Denied Your Government Check Today?
Temporarily they would have achieved cuts. But the limit would have eventually been lifted, the money they "saved" would have gotten spent anyway, and the right would have paid a huge political price, severely damaging their chance to win the senate or the White House next year.
Maybe, but you underestimate the damage Obama could have done with the power to prioritize the money going out and the way it would have been spun that against the GOP.
You seem to think that if the government suddenly stopped spending that money those who would have lent the government money would have instead put it into the economy and there wouldn't be very much economic pain or political fallout from the sudden stoppage in government spending. I'm all for taking medicine, I just don't think it can or has to all happen at once.
Nov '10
Re: Were You Denied Your Government Check Today?
The WaPo, which once upon a time was a real newspaper, had a little default countdown going at the top of the page. Seriously. The only thing missing was Dick Clark. Now that's hype.
I'm highly susceptible to hyped suggestion. Not proud of it, but it's true. I was "against" the TARP and stimulus packages because I believed that we should take our medicine now and get it over with--and yet I was secretly relieved that they passed because, y'know, really bad and scary things were surely going to happen if we actually took said medicine.
I don't buy it anymore. The ruling class manufactures its meme and sends it out to its media lapdogs for appropriate hyping. Then they sit back and wait for us all to tear each other apart in our anxiety. And we fall for it every time.
Bad things happen to you when you undergo chemotherapy--sometimes really bad things. Sometimes you're left feeling that the chemo just might kill the cancer if it doesn't kill you first. And yet you undergo chemo...because otherwise, the cancer will surely kill you.
Re: Were You Denied Your Government Check Today?
President Obama just called the debt ceiling debate "a manufactured crisis."
I stand uncorrected.
Nov '10
Re: Were You Denied Your Government Check Today?
The WaPo, which once upon a time was a real newspaper, had a little default countdown going at the top of the page. Seriously. The only thing missing was Dick Clark. Now that's hype.
I'm highly susceptible to hyped suggestion. Not proud of it, but it's true. I was "against" the TARP and stimulus packages because I believed that we should take our medicine now and get it over with--and yet I was secretly relieved that they passed because, y'know, really bad and scary things were surely going to happen if we actually took said medicine.
I don't buy it anymore. The ruling class manufactures its meme and sends it out to its media lapdogs for appropriate hyping. Then they sit back and wait for us all to tear each other apart in our anxiety. And we fall for it every time.
Bad things happen to you when you undergo chemotherapy--sometimes really bad things. Sometimes you're left feeling that the chemo just might kill the cancer if it doesn't kill you first. And yet you undergo chemo...because otherwise, the cancer will surely kill you.
Nov '10
Re: Were You Denied Your Government Check Today?
Tommy De Seno: President Obama just called the debt ceiling debate "a manufactured crisis."
I stand uncorrected. · Aug 2 at 11:14am
Uh huh. He also said that "everyone's going to have to chip in. That's only fair."
"Everyone"? I don't think that word means what he thinks it means.
Oct '10
Re: Were You Denied Your Government Check Today?
Tommy De Seno: President Obama just called the debt ceiling debate "a manufactured crisis."
I stand uncorrected. · Aug 2 at 11:14am
I could be wrong, but I believe he's implying something less connected to reality and more connected to scoring political points - the GOP manufactured the "crisis" by not agreeing months ago to tax vile, jet flying, boat floating, fat cat robber barons out of existence.