Well Duh or I Told You So
Charles Krauthammer has a short, clear description of the reality of the "Arab Spring" really being "Islamist Ascendancy" at NRO.
I think Krauthammer is right, but I wonder if he will at some point admit that he was a cheerleader for the Arab Spring and explain why he has changed his mind. A few months ago he was calling for intervention in Syria; now he admits that the successor to the Assad regime, should the Assads fall, will be what is conventionally called an Islamist regime.
The rise of Islamist regimes hostile to the United States as a consequence of the Arab Spring was, well, obvious. I was able to predict it, and I am not an expert in the history or politics of the region. It is a shame that great eminences like Hillary Clinton, Condoleeza Rice, and Charles Krauthammer couldn't see the obvious.
We have yet to think clearly as a nation about the Middle East. I am glad that intellectuals like Krauthammer are now willing to point out the obvious facts of the case. Maybe we can begin to think clearly about policies that will secure our rights while respecting the rights of others rather than living in our imaginations.
We have a long tradition of sound, clear thinking on foreign policy. The founders and their successors like John Qunicy Adams, Abraham Lincoln, and Grover Cleveland (among others) demonstrated an ability to think in a principled, clear manner about foreign affairs. Ronald Reagan was able to perceive the great threat posed by the USSR to our way of life, and he was also able to advocate sensible policies to address that threat.
Principled, clear thought on foreign affairs is possible. We must hope we will start to see some evidence that Romney can think more sensibly than his recent predecessors about international relations.
- Comment (40)
- · Quote
- · UnfollowFollow (2)
- Pages:
- 1
- 2
Comments:
Sep '10
Re: Well Duh or I Told You So
Yes
May '10
Re: Well Duh or I Told You So
So the best solution, long term, is to prop up perceived tyrants and dictators, as long as they are anti-Islamist?
In an isolationist world where people are not willing to push and fight for liberty for longer than three years, you are probably right. The US is an "instant everything" society now, I guess. You hear generally intelligent people suggesting that wars should be fought, if at all, by flattening a society and exterminating all the people ("Go Roman!"), then pulling out in 6 months.
I guess that's what we've come to. Today, we'd leave Adolph alone if it looked like it would take more than a year and more than 200,000 troops to dislodge him.
Re: Well Duh or I Told You So
Well, I didn't propose propping up dictators, and I don't endorse "isolationism."
I do propose non-interference in the internal affairs of other nations unless intervention is necessary to secure American rights.
I won't bother responding to the reductio ad Hitlerum.
Duane Oyen: So the best solution, long term, is to prop up perceived tyrants and dictators, as long as they are anti-Islamist?
In an isolationist world where people are not willing to push and fight for liberty for longer than three years, you are probably right. The US is an "instant everything" society now, I guess. You hear generally intelligent people suggesting that wars should be fought, if at all, by flattening a society and exterminating all the people ("Go Roman!"), then pulling out in 6 months.
I guess that's what we've come to. Today, we'd leave Adolph alone if it looked like it would take more than a year and more than 200,000 troops to dislodge him. · 3 minutes ago
Nov '11
Re: Well Duh or I Told You So
I do not see that there is a conflict between Krauthammer's position on intervention in Syria and his NRO article. He was and is concerned with Assad's role in supporting Iran. As he has argued, the fall of the Assad regime would be a blow to Iran, and a blow to Iran is good for us. He makes clear that an Islamist regime in Syria would not be a good thing, but that doesn't mean it would not be an improvement for the U.S. vis-a-vis our issues with Iran. I suggest a bit of caution before you accuse Krauthammer of missing the obvious.
Nov '10
Re: Well Duh or I Told You So
A bit of clarity on Romney's foreign policy. http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/right-turn/post/romney-as-the-anti-obama-commander-in-chief/2011/03/29/gIQARWpuSL_blog.html
Dec '10
Re: Well Duh or I Told You So
Any policy we follow in that part of the world will come to naught until the elephant in the room being ridden by the emporer with no clothes is at long last recognized: Islam & modern free/representative society are mutually exclusive. I'm with Derbyshire after careful study of the religion, culture & history: a "To Hell With Them Conservative": don't allow their citizens in, smite them on their turf if they become troublesome, otherwise, leave them be.
Edited on July 15, 2012 at 2:05amJan '11
Re: Well Duh or I Told You So
John,
Many people hear others shouting "Democracy" and "Liberty" and don't realize that those words are just as capable of being filled with contrary meanings as "Hope" and "Change." Ricochet itself was full of those people.
Like you, I was convinced that the "Arab Spring" was a Western secularist's mirage, an exercise in projection and wishfulness. What convinced me?
No one in Tahrir Square was demanding "Small, Divided Government Now!" There were no signs proclaiming the right of all citizens to keep and bear arms. And no one reported speeches by the leaders of the uprising in which the sanctity of private property was stipulated and the right of all faiths to worship free of state interference was made non-negotiable. In brief, the concrete realities about freedom were never asserted, so is it any wonder that the Arabs filled in the blanks?
Constitution, shmunstitution. The USSR had a constitution, and its citizens had plenty of rights, just none that men could stand on or fight with. Same with the Egyptians. Same with all the Marxist-inspired social democracies in the world.
Same with the Democrats.
May '12
Re: Well Duh or I Told You So
A shame indeed. They saw what they wanted to see from their padded wing chairs in their comfortable salons. No one wants to confront the reality that not all cultures are equal or there are cultures that produce people whom are incapable of understanding democracy, freedom, equality before the law, or individual liberty as we Westerners know them. Some would rather live with the illusion that we all live in a world something akin to a 'United Colors of Benetton' advertisement singing 'Kumbaya' with a bottle of Coke in hand rather than confront the truth that some cultures suck.
Edited on July 15, 2012 at 2:59amRe: Well Duh or I Told You So
Sorry, Krauthammer did miss the obvious. In the Spring of 2011 he was an enthusiast, pure and simple, for the Arab Spring. He claimed that Bush-43's freedom agenda was working.
Now he is saying that that the Arab Spring empowered Islamism.
That is contradictory.
Krauthammer should try and explain why empowering Shiites in Iraq (hence elevating Iran) was wise but bolstering a Sunni regime in Syria is the way to go now.
Calling for intervention in Syria implies that toppling the Assad regime is best for us. I know of no place where Krauthammer explains why empowering a Sunni Islamist regime in Syria is better than the status quo for America.
May '10
Re: Well Duh or I Told You So
Like you, John, I never bought the Arab Spring meme. It would have been nice but I could never muster the credulity required to believe the hype. I'm probably a little older than most here so, to me, the Hitler comparison is not all that far fetched. National Socialism was a fascist idea. Islamism is a fascist idea. NS was an emotional gloss on an evil plan. Islamism is an emotional gloss on an evil plan. How did we defeat Hitler? We massed EVERYTHING in our arsenal and gave no quarter, collateral damagembe damned, until they lost the will to continue the fight and then we insisted on unconditional surrender. How can we defeat Islamism? Same way....if we can muster the will. But it will be very different and very difficult in comparison, because, unlike WWII, the enemy is not in a single country. They are diffuse and scattered even among our friends and allies. This will be a very, very long fight.
Mar '11
Re: Well Duh or I Told You So
Duane Oyen: So the best solution, long term, is to prop up perceived tyrants and dictators, as long as they are anti-Islamist?
In an isolationist world where people are not willing to push and fight for liberty for longer than three years, you are probably right. The US is an "instant everything" society now, I guess. You hear generally intelligent people suggesting that wars should be fought, if at all, by flattening a society and exterminating all the people ("Go Roman!"), then pulling out in 6 months.
I guess that's what we've come to. Today, we'd leave Adolph alone if it looked like it would take more than a year and more than 200,000 troops to dislodge him. · 3 hours ago
If Adolf isn't threatening us, then we SHOULD leave him alone. It's not our job to save the world. And the United States was essentially formed with a foreign policy that stressed non-intervention and trade with anyone willing. We'd be better off if we stuck to that wisdom.
May '10
Re: Well Duh or I Told You So
John Grant: Well, I didn't propose propping up dictators, and I don't endorse "isolationism."
I do propose non-interference in the internal affairs of other nations unless intervention is necessary to secure American rights.
I won't bother responding to thereductio ad Hitlerum.
Duane Oyen: So the best solution, long term, is to prop up perceived tyrants and dictators, as long as they are anti-Islamist?
.................
I guess that's what we've come to. Today, we'd leave Adolph alone if it looked like it would take more than a year and more than 200,000 troops to dislodge him. · 3 minutes ago
5 hours ago
Your argument here is a non sequitur. The US did not interfere "in the internal affairs of " Tunisia, Egypt, etc., to advance the Arab Spring. You imply that we should have saved Mubarak.
I repeat my prior statement- pick your own murderous butcher- today, we would not fight WWII because it took longer than a year and required too many men to fight.
Libertarian isolationism is not morally impressive. Sorry. The standards I hear for "American rights" tends to be when the gunboats are pulling up in NY harbor.
Feb '11
Re: Well Duh or I Told You So
The Condoleeza Rice cheering squad here at Ricochet may see things a bit differently.
Feb '12
Re: Well Duh or I Told You So
Maybe it's obvious to everybody... and maybe I heard from Krauthammer what I wanted to hear - but I don't remember him cheering Arab spring. In fact, I remember him criticizing Obama for Libyan intervention (granted, on variety of grounds; mainly because it was illegal, but also because it was unwise). I also remember him saying that Mubarak will be likely replaced by Muslim Brotherhood; and American interests will suffer as result.
Syria is a different story. The dictator there is virulently anti-American and Iranian puppet. Sure, there is a proxy war going on there between Saudi Sunnis and Iranian Shiites, and - quoting Kissenger - it's a pity that both can't lose. But there is a reasonable argument for more robust engagement there (on rebels' side) than there was in Tunisia, Libya, or Egypt.
So, it would be great if you point to some convincing proof that Krauhammer was a cheerleader for Arab spring. Granted, I didn't put any links, either - but (a) my memories are from hearing him on TV, not in print; (b) you made this argument without links - so you go first; and (c) it's 2AM now, gotta get some sleep!
May '11
Re: Well Duh or I Told You So
I am with Duane, in that I do not see a third alternative in Middle East policy to either (1) supporting whatever dictator is least hostile to the U.S. or (2) letting them have their democracy, recognizing full well that this may result in them choosing an Islamist government. Bush 43 decided to try the grand experiment of changing our policy from #1 to #2. I had my doubts it would work, but I supported giving it a try. I supported the war in Iraq, and the decision to create the first functioning democracy in the history of the Middle East.
Having embarked on that experiment, I think we have to see it through. It might fail. It will probably fail. Bush's optimism that all people yearn to be free and that a world of free peoples will be better and safer for us all may have been wrong, but it deserves a try. If it doesn't work, we can go back to supporting friendly dictators and try again in a hundred years.
One thing I do know: The U.S. is exceptional because it stands for, and fights for, a better world for all.
May '11
Re: Well Duh or I Told You So
A couple of afterthoughts to my last post:
When I said "the first functioning democracy in the history of the Middle East," I should have said "the Islamic Middle East." Israel, of course, is a democracy, but the Islamic countries won't accept Israel as a role model.
When I said "The U.S. is exceptional because it stands for, and fights for, a better world for all," I meant that the U.S. is different from every other dominant power in the history of the world, because it stands for freedom and not just self-interest. Unlike Alexander's Greece, Ceasar's Rome, Attila's Huns, Charles V's Spain, Victoria's Britain, and Hitler's Germany, we fight not for territory and spoils, but for freedom. In this, the U.S. is unique. The first, and perhaps the last, such power in history. And everywhere in the world that people draw a free breath, they do so only because of the greatness and generosity of the American people. Without us, this would be a world run by Nazi's and Communists, dictators and warlords. God Bless America.
Apr '12
Re: Well Duh or I Told You So
We always thought of it as "Operation Iraqi Freedom." When the Iranians heard that name, they heard it as "Operation Iraqi Shi'ite Freedom."
The Shi'ites are, perhaps, the longest oppressed religious minority in man's history. Their great hope at freedom, a millennia in coming, was found in Khomeini's 1979 Revolution. By 1980, Khomeini was at war with the Shi'a oppressors and apostates in Iraq. Anwar Sadat sheltered the exiled Shah, and the Mullahs were calling for his death. In 1981 he was assassinated. By 1982 Khomeini had formed a revolutionary group in Lebanon which would later be called Hizbullah (Party of God). In 1983, Hizbullah accomplished the unthinkable--with a devastating coordinated bombing attack, they forced the US and UN out of Lebanon.
Needless to say, all of this succeeded in capturing the imagination of the greater community of Islam (collectively long oppressed by Western colonial powers). By the end of the Iran-Iraq War, pan-Arabism was gone, succeeded by the ascending movement of pan-Islamism. Even Saddam Hussein had reinvented himself as an Islamic King, and with his "Return to Faith" campaign (1992), remade once secular Ba'athist Iraq into an Islamic nation.
Apr '11
Re: Well Duh or I Told You So
All these discussions about the "Arab Spring" have a certain Kabuki-like quality about them. What were we going to do, prop up the aging dictator then replace him with his son? Or keep Gaddafi and sons in power?
More useful might be to look at root causes. The impetus for the Arab Spring was, among other things, the US Federal Reserve's numerous QEs which drove the price of commodities higher around the world and adversely effected countries which were poor and imported a large portion of their caloric intake like Egypt. The price of bread in African Mediterranean states had as much to do with the "Arab Spring" as any other cause. Add the US policy of using grains for fuel to the mix.
If we on the right keep remarking on the efficacy of a Cloward-Piven strategy then the case could be made that is exactly what we are doing right now to the counties where the Muslim Brotherhood is powerful. They are failing economically, politically, and demographically. Quite soon they will be just more N. African failed states.
The best thing we can do is keep driving the price of hydrocarbons down. Drill, baby, drill.
Edited on July 15, 2012 at 5:20pmApr '12
Re: Well Duh or I Told You So
All that needs to be recounted, in order to understand the rest.
The fantastic successes of Khomeini soon settled into the realities of what he'd created. Iran had established for itself, not a democracy, but a sham democracy; a thin veil disguising totalitarianism. Worse yet, there is very little economic freedom in Iran. Most every business is controlled by shadow corporations called bonyads. Guess who controls the bonyads?
In 2005, the Iraq Constitution was ratified. This was the first time Shi'ites were given a true democracy (as imperfect as it may be). It put the Iranian system to shame.
In 2008, the "Surge" visibly began to succeed. The Iraqi Civil War was all but over. Iraq had a bona fide republic.
In 2009, the Green Revolution began in Iran over the widespread fraud and corruption of their elections.
Had the Revolution been supported, perhaps with nothing more than enthusiastic words from the US and UK--with caution from the UN about Iran's murderous repression, the Revolution might have succeeded.
Maybe.
This was the spark that ignited the "Arab Spring" wild fire. Had the Iranian Revolution succeeded, Krauthammer, et al, would have been right to welcome it.
Edited on July 15, 2012 at 3:13pmRe: Well Duh or I Told You So
Please! The US pressured the Mubarak regime in a way we would not accept if it were done to us. If we had not applied the pressure, there would be no "regime change."
And let's not forget Libya either.
The founders were not "libertarian isolationists." You should read Washington's Farewell Address.
Duane Oyen
5 hours ago
Your argument here is a non sequitur. The US did not interfere "in the internal affairs of" Tunisia, Egypt, etc., to advance the Arab Spring. You imply that we should have saved Mubarak.
I repeat my prior statement- pick your own murderous butcher- today, we would not fight WWII because it took longer than a year and required too many men to fight.
Libertarian isolationism is not morally impressive. Sorry. The standards I hear for "American rights" tends to be when the gunboats are pulling up in NY harbor. · 9 hours ago