We Now Conclude Our Seattle Interlude
I'm flying back to Turkey today, and I spent last night with my family, but prior to switching off the electronic devices last night these were the headlines I saw:
Turkish lira slides on reports of military command quitting
Muslim Brotherhood calls out faithful to Tahrir Square
Islamist militia killed general, say Libya rebels
Along with several hundred variants on "US leaders remain deadlocked."
I'll try to give you a better perspective on the first headline after I get back. For now, a few tips:
1) Generally don't bother with stories from Turkey datelined "Washington," "New York" or "Los Angeles."
2) No, of course there won't be a coup. Where do people get these ideas? If the generals wanted to launch a coup, they'd have launched a coup, and they wouldn't have waited this long. Resigning is not usually your first step in staging a coup now, is it? I get the feeling a lot of the people writing about Turkey visited once in 1982 and just haven't thought much about the place since then.
As economist Emre Devreli puts it,
Turkish army undertakes coups only when there is support from the opposition and public. With the main opposition parties against such a coup and the AKP enjoying popular support, there is no chance of a coup, just like it is preposterous to think that the Armed Forces were plotting for one--this would mean that the few hundred people are in jail for cooked-up charges, but so is a football club president and a manager, what is the big deal?:( For the exact same reason, while the main opposition CHP accused the AKP of molding the army at its will, and while the Army is still the most trusted institution in the country, popular unrest is not likely, either.
IMHO, these are all signs that the country is getting further away from the democracy tram, but in terms of markets, there is nothing to worry about once the initial shock-selling is over …
3) But then Devreli notes a real peculiarity in the new economic data coming out of the government. Odd figures from TurkStat are nothing new--I've written about them a lot--but this item is even weirder than usual:
It seems that TurkStat has come up with a new series under BEC imports, called “confidential data” (I am not kidding), and most of the unprocessed fuel and oil imports seem to have been dumped into this new category.
Since TurkStat, in the usual way of doing business at Turkish government agencies, has not provided any explanation whatsoever, I have no idea what is going on. Neither do my Turkey economist friends, who noticed the new series yesterday as well. So unfortunately, I cannot tell you why this data suddenly became “confidential”.
The head of TurkStat (I am not sure if the current one) once said that statistics are their honor. Incidentally, Turks use the word “namus” to refer to “virginity” as well. So then I would say TurkStat has been raped …
4) The real story in Turkey isn't "secularist coup-plotters" versus "Islamists." And it sure isn't "advanced democracy." Those are shallow, lazy fables. If you want to reduce it to something easy for the brain, reduce it to this: It's "Where the hell is the money coming from and going?"
5) Wow, no one's quite sure who to call to reach the top of NATO's eastern flank. Good thing the United States and Europe seem completely on top of things these days.
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Comments :
May '11
Re: We Now Conclude Our Seattle Interlude
"Where the hell is the money coming from and going?"
I look forward to you answering that question, Claire. I fear that this resignation will lead to a less secular military and I don't see how that is better for the Turkish citizens.
Mar '11
Re: We Now Conclude Our Seattle Interlude
"In Washington, the US State Department urged the rebels not to let the discord over General Younes's death divide them."
Because they've proven such a capable force when they were 'united'. Oh, well...maybe if we strenuously urge them and include a finger wag.
"What's important is that they work both diligently and transparently to ensure the unity of the Libyan opposition."
The more this spokesman speaks, the less I am inclined to believe he, or anyone else in Washington, has the faintest idea what is going on.
Jun '10
Re: We Now Conclude Our Seattle Interlude
Did you check the price of a Grand Latte at the flagship Starbucks? Want to make sure there's not going to be a big hit to my budget.
Mar '11
Re: We Now Conclude Our Seattle Interlude
I think we are grandfathered in :-)
As for Turkey, the tide is in the Islamists' favor.
Edited on Jul 30, 2011 at 11:23amJun '10
Re: We Now Conclude Our Seattle Interlude
Claire, I didn't want to bother you with your plans when I heard you were in Seattle this time. But, could some of us meet up with you in one of your future visits?
I'm hoping to meet your dad sometime, too. I attended one Discovery Institute book signing (Jonathan Wells, The Myth of Junk DNA) and plan on getting more involved with the DI as I have time in the next few years. My son-in-law works in the same lab (remote site) as the DI uses and he has gotten to know and meet some of the luminaries there. He's not a believer in ID but he's a Phd. in the field (immunolgy and genetics) and so I have learned a lot about the debates and a little of the science.
(For others in Seattle, also: Kathy Johnson informs me that her father, Phillip E. Johnson, will be visiting Seattle in a couple weeks. I definitely want to attend that event. He's a great genius and will always be known as a pioneer in the field of Intelligent Design and also in debunking New-Darwinism.)