Anne Applebaum writing in the Washington Post yesterday:
I've listened to Sarah Palin's "Mama Grizzlies" video. I've watched the Tea Party movement evolve from a joke into a political force. I've read up on the primary candidates who want to take back government, take down government, burn down Washington.
I've seen all of it, I hear all of it and I don't believe any of it. A rose is a rose is a rose -- and hypocrisy is hypocrisy, whether it takes the form of champagne socialism or mama grizzlies who would go on the rampage if, God forbid, their mortgage tax relief were ever taken away.
Diane Ellis: While I'm convinced that most Americans favor some government intervention, and some social programs, I think the case could be made that the government has gone way too far in expanding itself. Will see some sort of scaling back happen in the next decade or two? Or are we just in for big and bigger from here on out?
James Pinkerton: I think people do want smaller government. Not nearly as small as the Cato Institute might want, but smaller. The challenge, though, is to figure out how to shrink it in ways that preserve the things that people want. I wrote a whole book about this back in 1995: "What Comes Next: The End of Big Government--and the New Paradigm Ahead."
What's worth remembering though, is that the frontal assault on government won't work. It hasn't worked in the past. Yes, we can avoid the mistake of the stimulus package (which I opposed) and wind down TARP and all the other bailouts (which I also opposed, including those proposed by G.W. Bush), but if we want to put a dent in the overall size of the state, we on the right will have to show that we have a better plan.
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May '10
Re: We Conservatives Have to Show That We Have a Better Plan: Conversation with James Pinkerton (Part 3)
James Pinkerton:
What's worth remembering though, is that the frontal assault on government won't work. It hasn't worked in the past. ·
Yes, but this is not like the past. If Republicans can replace Obama with one of their own in 2012, I believe voters will allow for more dramatic reversals of policy than they normally would. American voters generally permit only gradual changes in either direction, but Obama's radical nature has temporarily changed the political playing field.
The Tea Party movement is not just a reaction to big spending, but to political goals and methods which most Americans never expected to gain traction in our government. Many voters have drastically different perceptions of government in general since Obama was elected. They do not consider this politics as usual, so politicians should not expect politics as usual.
How long this situation will last is anyone's guess. For now, Republicans should aim high and speak bluntly. But they do need a concrete plan.
Sad to say, old programs like Social Security will remain untouchable until inflation or deflation sets in. That time will also be Republicans' opportunity to propose the flat tax.
Jul '10
Re: We Conservatives Have to Show That We Have a Better Plan: Conversation with James Pinkerton (Part 3)
I'm willing to wait an election or two before any "scaling back" happens. With the current people in power any government "scaling back" begins and ends with the Military.
May '10
Re: We Conservatives Have to Show That We Have a Better Plan: Conversation with James Pinkerton (Part 3)
I am also willing to believe that the Internet changes things too. Just consider how much more information about the government is available to ordinary people than existed even at the time you wrote that book Jim. And there's more every day. I receive a daily email with a summary by department of the Federal Register (not for ideological reasons but for work.) It takes your breath away to witness the scope of minutiae with which the federal government concerns itself, as well as the nearly incomprehensible amounts of red tape.
Jun '10
Re: We Conservatives Have to Show That We Have a Better Plan: Conversation with James Pinkerton (Part 3)
Plan to be the Orkin man. Shine the light of moral indignation under all their rocks and in all the crevices of the nanny state. Ask repeatedly why our federal government needs 500,000 employees earning over $100k a year. Refudiate the moral emptiness of the ruling class. Plan to get in their faces and to hit back twice as hard. Always, always, always denounce the bigotry of low expectations.
Re: We Conservatives Have to Show That We Have a Better Plan: Conversation with James Pinkerton (Part 3)
Mike Tanis: Always, always, always denounce the bigotry of low expectations.
Mike, I'm intrigued by this line. Could you expound further on what you mean by this?
May '10
Re: We Conservatives Have to Show That We Have a Better Plan: Conversation with James Pinkerton (Part 3)
Aaron, remember the Contract with America? And the Reagan Revolution before it? Things were going to be different then too. And frontal assaults on government failed (though great things still resulted). If we got a GOP that successfully challenged public employee unions, means tested social security, and passed a simplifying tax reform, I'd count myself thrilled.
I think you overestimate fundamental opposition to President Obama. If the economy recovers by election 2012, a lot of it will evaporate. I hope a worthy GOP nominee is chosen, and he or she wins. But I wouldn't bet on either of those things happening, at least not this early.
Jun '10
Re: We Conservatives Have to Show That We Have a Better Plan: Conversation with James Pinkerton (Part 3)
I agree. If the Republicans fail to take back at least one chamber of Congress in November, the assault on the DoD budget will parallel - or exceed - the reductions that occurred during the 70's and the 90's.
As for the viability of the "frontal assault" on big government, the most you can hope for is a slow-down or maybe zero-gain growth in government. The political class and the pork-meisters are not going to work to their own disadvantage. A better path - the long game - may be to work to reawaken federalism. If control of state houses and legislatures turns and pushes back against unfunded mandates and the like, you then can add players to the national game of checks and balances. The populace is too conditioned to look to Washington for everything. The only way to dilute the power of the political class is to shift that power closer to the citizenry. Short of term limits, federalism may be a tool to consider. At the very least, it could provide firepower to help with the frontal assault.
May '10
Re: We Conservatives Have to Show That We Have a Better Plan: Conversation with James Pinkerton (Part 3)
Pinkerton's comments here make sense to me, as do Conor's. The prefacing Applebaum quotes are asinine.
When Reagan was inaugurated, we wished for great things; and we got some small things (tax changes, flatter tax) plus one big one, the beginning of the end of the Cold War.
But like it or not, we couldn't get rid of all the flab- because 1) there is never enough political capital to do it all (even Obama with LBJ-type massive majorities can't do all he wishes), and 2) the country is not monolithically "Right". As with Anthony Kennedy, we accomplish what the Mushy Middle will stand for.
One person's "RINO sell-out" is another person's "pragmatic strategic realist". We need to distinguish the true RINOs (whose support we still need to accomplish anything) from the Sensible-but-still-on-our-side Realists. And stop shooting each other over honest disagreements.
May '10
Re: We Conservatives Have to Show That We Have a Better Plan: Conversation with James Pinkerton (Part 3)
It seems I'm at a disadvantage for not having experienced the Carter-Reagan years. Are you, Duane and Conor, suggesting that Americans are no more riled and disenchanted about government under Obama than they were under Carter? Or would you say that the anger is less about notions of government than a general displeasure with our economy?
I did, at least, live through the Contract with America. I was young, so perhaps I am misremembering, but I do not believe Americans' political reaction to Clinton's administration is anything like their reaction to Obama's.
I agree, Duane, that America is not overwhelmingly Right. But even many middle-of-the-road voters seem to be angry about government overreach for now.
May '10
Re: We Conservatives Have to Show That We Have a Better Plan: Conversation with James Pinkerton (Part 3)
Aaron Miller: .... would you say that the anger is less about notions of government than a general displeasure with our economy?
.... I do not believe Americans' political reaction to Clinton's administration is anything like their reaction to Obama's.
Conor wasn't doing much during the Carter years, I believe- I think he's about the age of my daughters (here's where I do my Scott Brown thing...).
Conor can answer for himself. My own conviction is that the vast majority of the public just doesn't pay much attention to politics until just before the elections, and they don't get very deep into the issues. They are primarily immediately economically motivated, and personally conservative in the sense that they do not like massive perturbations (Clinton consciously never introduced perturbations- after HillaryCare scared everyone). These are the people you have to win over to win elections- the 20% in the middle who are neither Donkey nor Pachyderm.
Right now, we are experiencing government-induced massive perturbations. If we can help them remember that fact at the right time- November- we are OK. If we scare them more with our proposals than Obama does, we lose.