Watching Tonight's Debate
Iowa’s State Fair (the inspiration for the Rodgers and Hammerstein musical) opened its doors today.
If you've never attended, here's what you're missing: 11 days of pure Midwest fun -- butter sculptures, cowgirl queens and, on closing night, an “up close and personal” encounter with Janet Jackson.
(Gee, what could go wrong?)
Not to be outdone, Republican presidential hopefuls will get up close and personal with Iowa in a few hours – Fox News and the Washington Examiner co-sponsoring a candidates’ debate airing at 9 p.m. EDT tonight from the campus of Iowa State University.
As with most political debates, there’s been a minor stink. Thaddeus McCotter, didn’t make the cut. Neither did Fred Karger, the field’s lone socially progressive and openly gay candidate. Do you think either deserved a slot?
That leaves eight wannabes to duke it out: Bachmann, Cain, Gingrich, Huntsman, Paul, Pawlenty, Romney, Santorum.
(That's assuming Texas Rick Perry doesn’t pull an A-Rod and announce his candidacy in the middle of the broadcast.)
So what to watch for, if you’re planning a viewing party? Three things, by the letter:
(1) D-Day. “D” as is “Desperation” for at least two of the debaters – Pawlenty and Santorum. Both are mired in single digits in Iowa, their one and only chance to stay in the race. Both need a strong debate performance to reanimate their candidacies. Media buzzards are circling – especially so with Pawlenty, who at one time was seen as a potential alternative to Romney.
(2) The M&M Boys. “M” as in the two Mormons in the field: Huntsman and Romney. Faith isn’t the issue – it’s the two candidates’ decision to write off Iowa for the friendlier confines of New Hampshire. This gives the other six debaters targets of opportunity – Romney, in particular, as he’s the frontrunner. Caring for one’s neighbor is a longstanding Iowa tradition. Maybe not so, in this debate.
(3) OD’ing on the President. “OD” as in “Obama Downgrade”. David Axelrod and John Kerry spent the weekend playing pin the tail on the Tea Party, for the S&P downgrade. Now it’s the Republicans’ turn to lay the blame on the President. Let’s see if any of the eight challengers weaves into a larger, effective narrative of lack of presidential initiative (“lead from behind”, etc.).
Anyone care to predict winners and losers?
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Comments :
Re: Watching Tonight's Debate
Bill! We're having a viewing party here on Ricochet tonight. We'll start up a live chat at 6pm Pacific over on the Member Feed. Hope you'll join us!
Sep '10
Re: Watching Tonight's Debate
Bachmann will take the prize. This is easy stuff for a conservative who knows what she thinks, all she has to do is speak her mind.
Nov '10
Re: Watching Tonight's Debate
You said "minor stink". But Gingrich will be there . . .
Oct '10
Re: Watching Tonight's Debate
I am dispirited because Romney is a) a full-fledged member of America's Ruling Class* and b) the most likely nominee for a lot of reasons (money, the next person in line, wide managerial experience, and more).
IMNSHO, to date, nobody has seized the opportunity. So to quote somebody from a day or two ago, I'll vote for a footstool over Obama - without much positive enthusiasm.
All of that said, unless you're already committed and/or are motivated by a narrow set of specific criteria, I fully expect that most viewers will see Romney take the rhetorical prize tonight. I doubt I can bring myself to watch it - may go work out instead.
* http://spectator.org/archives/2010/07/16/americas-ruling-class-and-the/print
Aug '10
Re: Watching Tonight's Debate
Bachmann set the bar pretty high in the last debate so she may have a hard time standing out again.
It will be interesting to see if Pawlenty attacks Bachmann or Romney or both - I doubt he'll play Mr Rogers again.
It's kind of a no-win for Romney - If he goes right people will accuse him of shape-shifting and pandering to the base. If he espouses moderate positions everyone will cast him as a RINO. I doubt he'll move the needle much either way tonight.
The rest of the cast will fail to impress, although it will be interesting to see if Obama or Romney draw most of the fire from the other candidates.
Pawlenty is toast after the straw poll - Gingrich, Santorum, Cain, Paul, Huntsman never had a chance to begin with. I would like to see the next debate include only Romney, Bachmann and Perry (assuming he announces as expected).
Re: Watching Tonight's Debate
My prediction is that it will be a repeat of New Hampshire. Pawlenty will not prove to be plausibly tough. Romney will look and sound presidential. And Bachmann, who is a force of nature, will wow them. None of the others are really in the race.
Jul '11
Re: Watching Tonight's Debate
OK, I'll go out on a limb and predict that Huntsman will "win", and I define winning as gaining the most from the event. He has staked out positions that are anathema to conservatives, but in so doing he has large chunks of political real estate all to himself - he just needs a chance to sell his wares and this is his first major opportunity to do so. Who else can claim to have supported the only plan that would have realistically avoided default? (Not that I buy that, I'm only suggesting that such an argument could be made.) Bachmann's problem is that while she was the most ardent opponent of raising the debt ceiling, she has to compete with the likes of Pawlenty and Romney saying "me too" on the question of opposing the final bill. How does she expand her support in that environment? Romney may have reached a ceiling in his support for the time being, as the 80% who don't support him won't be swayed easily.
If Huntsman gets the attention of enough moderates, he may make inroads into Romney's support, especially given Romney's obvious weaknesses as a candidate.
Sep '10
Re: Watching Tonight's Debate
Pawlenty has signed a pledge affirming that if a riot breaks out in the crowd tonight he will raise his voice and possibly point his finger at someone.
Mar '11
Re: Watching Tonight's Debate
I'd agree that Mrs Bachmann will win the debate.
However, I saw a poll somewhere that says that she is losing out to Mr Perry, so it may be moot.
Huntsman? Nah.
Sep '10
Re: Watching Tonight's Debate
I am in the middle of reading Mark Steyn's latest on my Kindle and will be reading it for inspiration while I'm fitted for cement overshoes during the podcast. (Many thanks to George Savage for tipping me over the scales of my household budget to be scolded by Mrs. Kitty when next month's Visa statement hemorrhages out of the mailbox and onto the street, slaughtering innocent pets all over my neighborhood and sweeping away what's left of law enforcement into the drainage ditch.)
Jul '11
Re: Watching Tonight's Debate
Well, if you define winning as saying things that actually make sense and convince those that need convincing to vote for you, you're probably right, Huntsman's not likely to do well in that sense of winning. But who else, pray tell, can possibly triple their support in one evening, hmmm? Huntsman can certainly win in that more abstract and meaningless sense of the word. But, if he takes support away from Romney, I'm all for it.
Sep '10
Re: Watching Tonight's Debate
I predict that the Ron Paul groupies will be loud and obnoxious and cheer like maniacs after every one of his answers.
Dec '10
Re: Watching Tonight's Debate
A shape-shifting RINO? Perfect.
I suspect none will really win. No one is convinced that these are the options from which we must make a choice. I will be watching (provided I can stream it here at work) to have my misgivings for each validated. If someone even makes me look up from Mark's new book I will be very surprised.