WSJ: Jobs Report is All Positive
Tristan Abbey ·
February 3, 2012 at 7:48pm
The Wall Street Journal's panel of economists is universally cheering today's jobs report. A few samplings:
- "Our quick read through of today’s report shows that this is unquestionably a positive report in nearly every way...."
- "This is a game-changer. Right on cue..."
- "It’s hard to find much not to like in today’s jobs report. Strength is everywhere..."
- "The January employment report is a blow-out number. It is strong in virtually every way that it could be...."
Some right-wing skeptics -- Human Events, Washington Times -- are pointing to the drop in the labor participation rate, but another story from the WSJ suggests that this is due to retiring baby boomers.
What is the conservative response? That things would simply be even better under Republican rule?
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Comments:
Jun '10
Re: WSJ: Jobs Report is All Positive
We should all hope for an improving economy. But a few months of marginally positive numbers won't get us much below 8%. Still out there is the volatility of Europe, not to mention the overriding fact that future economic growth is going to run smack into an ever increasing debt and deficit that has exploded these last few years.
An improving economy is not based solely on one unemployment number, despite what some would like to believe.
Dec '10
Re: WSJ: Jobs Report is All Positive
Err, umm...
Nov '10
Re: WSJ: Jobs Report is All Positive
The conservative response is that the economy is FINALLY recovering, despite policy, not because of it. Just compare job and GDP growth from the last time the U.S. had a recession this deep; 1982. In the 10 quarters following the '82 recession, GDP growth averaged 5.7% and 7.3 million jobs were created. In the 10 quarters since the NBER called the end of this last recession, GDP growth has averaged 2.4% and 3.2 million jobs have been created (from the nadir). Phil Gramm and Mike Solon addressed this in the WSJ yesterday. Excerpt:
Policy mattters and Barack Obama's policies have been ideologically grandiose and economically incompetent.
Jan '12
Re: WSJ: Jobs Report is All Positive
Tristan Abbey
Exactly, Chris! Is it possible the argument is simply impossible? ;-) · 1 minute ago
Certainly not impossible! Is it probable that someone like Mitt or one of these guys is going to be able to make it in a convincing way? I'm not sure. One of the guys on the podcast recently said, 'Why don't these guys just start talking nonstop about the insanity of our debt?' Especially in an age where so many people know so vividly how crushing debt is in their own lives, what bigger campaign theme do you need?
May '10
Re: WSJ: Jobs Report is All Positive
Things have to be very, very bad indeed for a recession not to end of its own accord. We've see the charts comparing this recession with that at the beginning of the Reagan presidency - so we know for a fact that it has been mishandled. Just not as badly mishandled as by Hoover/Roosevelt. Well, good. Obama doesn't have to be the worst president ever for me to prefer that an alternative replace him after the next election.
Jan '12
Re: WSJ: Jobs Report is All Positive
Stuart Creque: Err, umm...
5 minutes ago
That's a sorely disappointing response from Mitt! Obama's policies didn't only slow the recession -- his policies have ensured that the recession will impact us in frightful ways for generations to come! Ugh.
Apr '11
Re: WSJ: Jobs Report is All Positive
We are at a 30 year low in labor force participation rate. I think that is pretty sobering. I guess if we just convince all of the unemployed to stop looking, we'll achieve 0% unemployment and the problem will be solved.
Jan '11
Re: WSJ: Jobs Report is All Positive
Baby boomers retiring, no?
Apr '11
Re: WSJ: Jobs Report is All Positive
How much of that is simply due to retiring baby boomers?
Dec '11
Re: WSJ: Jobs Report is All Positive
Obama's policies (both fiscal and monetary) are designed to reinflate the bubble.
Apr '11
Re: WSJ: Jobs Report is All Positive
How does today's report fit in with the CBO's extremely pessimistic forecast released earlier this week?
Apr '11
Re: WSJ: Jobs Report is All Positive
Tristan Abbey
Good point, Todd! Let's suppose in September the GOP nominee is debating Barack Obama and the question posed is: How can "Obamanomics" be failing if the unemployment rate has dropped from near 10% to under 8% and that 200k+ jobs are being created each year? Conservative economic policy simply wouldn't have predicted this.
One of my earliest political memories is of conservatives confidently prediction that the economy was doomed because Clinton had raised taxes. I have looked with a slightly jaundiced eye at conservative economic orthodoxy ever since (while agreeing broadly).
This is not supposed to be happening.
Sep '10
Re: WSJ: Jobs Report is All Positive
The below analysis works for me, but who knows if it works for a soundbite political campaign.
From James Pethokoukis (OR = Obama Recovery; RR = Reagan Recovery)
Jan '11
Re: WSJ: Jobs Report is All Positive
Chris Hurtubise
Certainly not impossible! Is it probable that someone like Mitt or one of these guys is going to be able to make it in a convincing way? I'm not sure. One of the guys on the podcast recently said, 'Why don't these guys just start talking nonstop about the insanity of our debt?' Especially in an age where so many people know so vividly how crushing debt is in their own lives, what bigger campaign theme do you need? · 17 minutes ago
That's an interesting approach. One problem, I think, is that the national debt numbers are so enormous that they actually lose meaning. It's like talking about casualty statistics from trench warfare in World War I or the Eastern Front in World War II.
Mar '11
Re: WSJ: Jobs Report is All Positive
wmartin
How much of that is simply due to retiring baby boomers? · 7 minutes ago
Over a million baby boomers all decided to retire simultaneously last month?! I guess it's not impossible...
Dec '10
Re: WSJ: Jobs Report is All Positive
Since you're inclined to trust the BLS, Tristan. How about this graphic?
That's labor force participation rate for civilians ages 16 to 65 from the BLS. Any trends since 2009 there worth discussing? I'd provide the link, but unfortunately the database is currently unavailable. Coincidentally. On the day such great employment numbers are announced.
I think you make too little of Rush's seasonal adjustment argument. It isn't that the BLS is lying, its just that tweaking unemployment based on the jobs we'd expect to lose this time of year, under conditions of an economy this weak, turns a negative into a positive. It's sort of like saving money by cutting the rate of spending growth.
I'm actually not worried about "improving" jobs numbers. People forced into early retirement, taking 25% pay cuts to stay employed (Mr. C), with adult children unemployed or underemployed, or unemployed themselves are not going to buy these numbers. Real life will make the argument for us and benefit our cause by discrediting our opponent. Opportunities are shrinking; people know it. Even the President is cautious about what the numbers mean.
Update: Working link.
Edited on February 3, 2012 at 9:11pmJun '11
Re: WSJ: Jobs Report is All Positive
Tristan Abbey
Good point, Todd! Let's suppose in September the GOP nominee is debating Barack Obama and the question posed is: How can "Obamanomics" be failing if the unemployment rate has dropped from near 10% to under 8% and that 200k+ jobs are being created each year? Conservative economic policy simply wouldn't have predicted this.
What should our nominee say in response? · 31 minutes ago
The truth - that there is more to life than a chicken in every pot.
May '10
Re: WSJ: Jobs Report is All Positive
We should expect more. If this country is doing back flips over one month with 250k job growth, we really have come to accept mediocrity.
I don't believe Americans expect mediocrity.
Jun '11
Re: WSJ: Jobs Report is All Positive
Tristan Abbey
michael kelley:
In the real world, an Obama doesn't get credit for a blip in jobs just as a George Bush doesn't rightly get the blame for the implosion in the residential real estate market. · 4 minutes ago
Thanks for the comment, Michael! I agree with you that Obama shouldn't get [all the] credit and Bush shouldn't [all the] get blame, but don't they? · 49 minutes ago
Ouch. That's so true it's painful. Ouch.
Jan '12
Re: WSJ: Jobs Report is All Positive
Tristan Abbey
Chris Hurtubise
Certainly not impossible! ...
That's an interesting approach. One problem, I think, is that the national debt numbers are so enormous that they actually lose meaning. It's like talking about casualty statistics from trench warfare in World War I or the Eastern Front in World War II. · 1 minute ago
I totally agree that the numbers are incomprehensible and that could make it a bit tougher, but debt is a real life limitation that could resonate with a lot of people. Campaigning on the reality of the problem of debt certainly worked well for Gov. Scott Walker here in Wisconsin.