Vice Presidential Augury Made Simple
Over on the Member Feed, speculation is growing that Mitt Romney's vice presidential pick could be coming as soon as this week. But if you're too impatient to wait for the official announcement, Tech President's Micah Sifry has a nifty strategy for divining the choice before the public knows:
Sarah Palin's Wikipedia page was updated at least 68 times the day before John McCain announced her selection, with another 54 changes made in the five previous days previous. Tim Pawlenty, another leading contender for McCain's favor, had 54 edits on August 28th, with just 12 in the five previous days. By contrast, the other likely picks — Romney, Kay Bailey Hutchison — saw far fewer changes. The same burst of last-minute editing appeared on Joe Biden's Wikipedia page, Terry Gudaitis of Cyveillance, told the Washington Post.
None of Wikipedia entries for the current candidates being bandied about by Romney-watchers — Rob Portman, Marco Rubio, Paul Ryan, Bobby Jindal, Chris Christie, Kelly Ayotte or Pawlenty — are currently showing anything like the spike in edits that Cyveillance spotted on Palin and Biden's pages back in 2008. But most of those came in the 24 hours prior to the official announcement. That said, if Wikipedia changes offer any hint of what's coming, then today might be a good day to bet on Ryan.
There are more details at the link. I'd just offer one word of warning: ignore a spike of activity on Buddy Roemer's page. That's him editing it himself.
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Oct '11
Re: Vice Presidential Augury Made Simple
Also, an FYI: Intrade shows the following:
Portman: 30%
Pawlenty: 22.1%
Rubio: 10%
Ryan: 8.3% (went up from 8.2% while I was looking at the page!)
Jindal: 3.6%
Rice: 2.5%
Ron Paul: 0.2%
Re: Vice Presidential Augury Made Simple
Though I am a huge fan of quantitative analysis, my preferred method is still "eeny meeny miny mo."
Dec '11
Re: Vice Presidential Augury Made Simple
Troy, does this mean that editors rule the world?
Re: Vice Presidential Augury Made Simple
Perhaps. There is a logic to that: like most rulers, the only time you're aware of an editor's authority is when he is irritating you.
Aug '10
Re: Vice Presidential Augury Made Simple
Ryan is the most well-known , isn't he ?
Jun '10
Re: Vice Presidential Augury Made Simple
Troy: You and this new-age social network stuff. What ever happened to either (1) the Oracle of Delphi (although she probably retired at age 50, and what with the Greek economy no replacement has been named) or (2) an examination of goat entrails? Goats, along with their entrails, are readily available.
Jul '11
Re: Vice Presidential Augury Made Simple
Four years ago we were less on line aware. This updating trend falls when considering how closely people guard their on line reputations now. I certainly do. Well I'm off to hit the morphine in my drug cabinet before having an illicit affair with my secretary.
Jun '10
Re: Vice Presidential Augury Made Simple
Doc: Please don't start tweeting pictures of yourself in your Hanes underwear, that's all I ask.
Nov '11
Re: Vice Presidential Augury Made Simple
If I were on Romney's VP team, I'd read that and go ask a whole slew of random Republicans to edit their pages. Just to muddy the waters.
May '12
Re: Vice Presidential Augury Made Simple
At last, a good use for Wikipedia.
Apr '11
Re: Vice Presidential Augury Made Simple
Augury is a splendid word. I shall try to use it in a sentence (and in a proper context) tomorrow, whether Mitt announces his veep pick or not.
Aug '10
Re: Vice Presidential Augury Made Simple
Docjay,Not having experience in funding a democrat senate primary race before, need to start with one question : what state ?
Jul '11
Re: Vice Presidential Augury Made Simple
Flownover, a state of drug intoxication and a state of moral turpitude. Much like SNL poking fun at a drunk Teddy Kennedy in his underwear calling out,"Where's the paaarty?". I'm ready for office folks.
Jul '12
Re: Vice Presidential Augury Made Simple
Albert Arthur: Also, an FYI: Intrade shows the following:
Portman: 30%
Pawlenty: 22.1%
Rubio: 10%
Ryan: 8.3% (went up from 8.2% while I was looking at the page!)
Jindal: 3.6%
Rice: 2.5%
Ron Paul: 0.2% · 5 hours ago
Isn't their percentage for Ron Paul a bit high?
Apr '11
Re: Vice Presidential Augury Made Simple
I'd say that this pointed more to there being more Ryan partisans and Ryan haters out there than any of the others, particularly given the low volumes. Whereas the McCain camp had plenty of leaks to stir the pot from competing factions, the Romney camp is generally more disciplined. If anything, they're too disciplined, meaning that the press goes for quotes from nobodies; they should be a little more media friendly.
Nov '11
Re: Vice Presidential Augury Made Simple
Guy who shouts Buddy Roemer:
Buddy Roemer!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Mar '12
Re: Vice Presidential Augury Made Simple
Could the 28 changes made to the 'Cuda's site simply been a hasty attempt to "beef up" her resume as part of the McCain campaign's hasty roll-out?
Oct '11
Re: Vice Presidential Augury Made Simple
It was my impression that McCain did a good job of keeping her name from leaking. Even when he got up on the stage and began describing her, people didn't know who he was talking about, which is why the crowd went nuts when he switched pronouns from "they" to "she."
Oct '10
Re: Vice Presidential Augury Made Simple
Nothing pulls the plug on enthusiasm like the mention of Pawlenty.
Feb '11
Re: Vice Presidential Augury Made Simple
What does Petraeus' page look like?
Edited on August 7, 2012 at 6:25pm