Updates on the Siege of Wukan
Chinageeks is aggregating updates, photos and videos from Wukan, the village in Southern China now in open rebellion against the government.
I don’t think I need to explain the ways in which this event is amazing, and I mean that in the literal sense of the word. Anyone with a funtional brain and half an eye on the Chinese media is aware that local government land grabs are a huge source of discontent, but if you’d told me a few months ago that a Chinese town would band together, run the local officials out of town, resist a force of 1,000 police officers intent on entering the town again (but, thankfully, not willing to use lethal force to do so, at least not yet), establish their own makeshift government, and keep the whole thing running even this long, I would have told you you were nuts.
Before we go any further, I want to get this out of the way: no, this is not the first spark in some nationwide rebellion that will see the national government overthrown. In fact, it’s not even a rebellion against the central government, as you can tell from the pleas for help from Beijing in Moore’s article.
Still, it puts Beijing in an awfully interesting position. As I see it, they have three basic options:
- Come to the rescue of the down, declare the local government officials corrupt, put them on trial and restore order peacefully. This is, I suspect, exactly what the people in Wukan want.
- Come to the rescue of the officials and provide them enough manpower to completely crush the rebellion. This would be easy, but would attract a lot of negative attention internationally, and there’s a risk of it leaking online domestically, too.
- Do nothing for the time being, and see if the officials can regain control on their own, or if the rebellion spreads.
The last option seems by far the most likely to me, which is good and bad news for the protesters in Wukan. No help is coming from Beijing, but at least that means the PLA probably isn’t coming either.
And here's a post from Malcolm Moore explaining why he left Wukan:
Each day we stayed in Wukan we burned the people around us, and left them open to retribution from the local government when the situation is resolved (and one way or another it will be resolved - this is not the beginning of some wider revolt).
The villagers in Wukan told us that they accepted that by allowing us to stay in the town, and speaking to us, they had made a devil's pact.
"If we speak to you, the government side can criminalise us by accusing us of cooperating with foreign forces," one villager said.
(Wukan has already been accused in the past of accepting finance from abroad, the suggestion being that foreigners are working to disrupt the local government. This sort of murky accusation is treated very seriously by the Chinese authorities.)
"But we need to speak to you to help get our story out, because the local media cannot cover this," the villager added.
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Comments :
Dec '11
Re: Updates on the Siege of Wukan
You may be right about Option 3, but Option 1 is also very likely. The Party (whether in China or anywhere else) has never had a problem sacrificing some of its own as a propaganda move to appease/defang any sign of opposition.
Here's how it may play out: (a) The government comes in, makes a grand show of putting local apparatchiki on public trial, gives the villagers some concessions and order is restored. (b) The people of Wukan are satisfied. (c) Internal and world public opinion (to the extent that anyone knows about this at all and gives a damn about the plight of Chinese villagers) is mollified. The matter is soon forgotten, except for a few "reactionary rabble rouser" outfits like Ricochet. (d) In the ensuing calm, those residents of Wuhan who are viewed as being responsible for the disorders are apprehended and removed, slowly and quietly, possibly on various unrelated charges, or no charges at all. (e) The whole thing is forgotten. (f) The predatory development practices in the PRC continue unabated. (g) Perhaps, after a time, the government returns to Wuhan in force for some very thorough housecleaning.
Jun '10
Re: Updates on the Siege of Wukan
I'm not trying to be flip here. Just think about this. If you let oppressed people around the world watch American movies, even a silly comedy like Animal House, they take away lessons from the movie that we don't even notice. They might be inspired most by the rising up against an unfair bureaucracy, done matter-of-factly and without fear. These Ideas, that free people just carry around naturally...they're very powerful...even in a comedy movie. And in our entertainment media, they're everywhere. Everywhere.
Sep '10
Re: Updates on the Siege of Wukan
"Trouble in Wukan has been brewing since September, after the fishing village revolted at an attempt to take one of its last parcels of farmland and give it to a major Chinese property developer, Country Garden.... The gap between the rich and poor in the village has also upset many, with at least a hundred families, including those of the former party secretary and village finance chief, living in palatial mansions, all built on farmland. By yesterday, almost all the rich families had also retreated out of the village, while the ones who remained refused to comment on the protests, shut in behind high walls and strong steel gates."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/china/8955295/Rebel-Chinese-village-of-Wukan-has-food-for-ten-days.html
Waiting for the Occupy Wall Street protesters to leap into action on behalf of the oppressed masses... waiting....
Re: Updates on the Siege of Wukan
To be clear, that's Chinageek's analysis, not mine.
Dec '10
Re: Updates on the Siege of Wukan
I think the central authorities will let the local authorities crush the rebellion on their own and then come in to punish the local authorities. It is an old technique.
The Prince, Ch. 7:
[cont'd]
Dec '10
Re: Updates on the Siege of Wukan
[cont'd]
The Prince, Ch. 7:
Mar '11
Re: Updates on the Siege of Wukan
Before we go any further, I want to get this out of the way: no, this is not the first spark in some nationwide rebellion that will see the national government overthrown.
This is no doubt correct but it does raise the question of how many more incidents like this have occurred or are ongoing and receiving no attention internationally? That massive internal security apparatus is not just for show.
May '10
Re: Updates on the Siege of Wukan
My China correspondent comments:
"I don't think its really an anti-communist uprising, though. They are appealing to Beijing for help, and expecting it to come. The revolt is against local party cadres, and so all Beijing has to do is declare itself on the side of the people against corrupt local officials - something it does a dozen times a year - and try to end it peacefully. The other options are to wait it out or crack down violently, and the last one will get out internationally and really should be a last resort. One hopes. But there are tens of thousands of protests in China each year - this one is more extreme than most, but it's worth noting that most of those protests are not actually calling for the overthrow of the central government, but justice on the local or, sometimes, provincial level. Reform, not revolution. Not even the Tiananmen Square protesters in 1989 were calling for an end to communism."
Local corruption is both the lifeline and the bane of the central government. In the aftermath of the Chengdu earthquake the buildings all collapsed on kids, and there were massive riots and protests. (con't)
May '10
Re: Updates on the Siege of Wukan
(con't from #8)
In 2008, Beijing rushed in and promised massive, improved rebuilding. The prior construction had been handled roughly like the Louisiana Levee Board activities.
I think that some day it will happen as etoiledunord suggests, but just take a lot longer than we wish. I disagree with Stuart based on my own observations when visiting China. The central government is opportunistic and ad hoc about this stuff, not machiavellian.
Last comment from Our Intrepid China correspondent:
"You should realize, though, that mine is not really an expert opinion - I don't study peasant revolts or Chinese protest at all - it's just that we tend to get over excited by every sign of protest in China. This one is HUGELY unusual, but that doesn't have to mean it's the end for the CCP. Most Chinese value stability, and are not interested in violent revolution. I've also never met a Chinese person that thinks the country is ready for democracy - they exist, I'm sure, but I've never met one."
The statement about valuing stability perfectly matches all the Chinese immigrants I work with (all extremely bright, highly educated, and successful in the US).
Oct '10
Re: Updates on the Siege of Wukan
Duane Oyen: My China correspondent comments:
"I don't think its really an anti-communist uprising, though. They are appealing to Beijing for help, and expecting it to come. The revolt is against local party cadres, and so all Beijing has to do is declare itself on the side of the people against corrupt local officials - something it does a dozen times a year - and try to end it peacefully. The other options are to wait it out or crack down violently, and the last one will get out internationally and really should be a last resort. One hopes. But there are tens of thousands of protests in China each year - this one is more extreme than most, but it's worth noting that most of those protests are not actually calling for the overthrow of the central government...
I should add that Duane's China correspondent, who is also a friend of mine, is a solid anti-communist conservative Republican like most of us here. One must take into account the larger sociopolitical context in which the Wukan incident is unfolding.