Unseating Obama -- Part Three: Karma
Sometimes a president faces a challenge from an unhappy base. Other times, the economy proves to be a fatal drag.
Then there are times when a president can’t seem to catch a break.
Call it karma – a third factor in weighing an incumbent’s re-election chances.
A century ago, William Howard Taft wasn’t jinxed -- haunted by Teddy Roosevelt, but not jinxed. Herbert Hoover, one might argue, had the unfortunate luck of occupying the Oval Office in October 1929 and beyond. Bad timing equals bad luck?
Jimmy Carter? What didn’t go wrong? Domestic and foreign crises, a trouble-making mother and brother, collapsed while jogging, attacked by wildlife . . .
The elder George Bush? Well, there was the vomiting incident, the much-misunderstood/oft-misreported encounter with the grocery scanner, and checking his watch mid-debate (in the great man's defense: as would I, if also stuck in a room with Ross Perot).
As “Dirty Harry” was televised last night, let’s apply the question to Obama: do you think he feels lucky?
Do you think the president is capably surfing the waves of changing political breakers, or does he look like a candidate primed to get swept out to sea?
Can the Republicans make the argument, ala Carter in 1980, that it’s in the nation’s best interest to take a break from a president who can't catch a break?
Or does the economy, coupled with voter frustration with the handling of debt and spending, overshadow the whole idea of karma?
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Re: Unseating Obama -- Part Three: Karma
I've enjoyed this series, Bill. Please tell me there's a part four, so we have a little more in our arsenal to count on!
I doubt that Obama will face any primary challengers, so that one's out. I do think it will be hard for him to gain the upper hand when it comes to the topic of the economy, however. As for bad karma, he's certainly due for some, but nothing glaring in this column to report on yet.
Perhaps part 4 could be on horrible personalities. He's thin-skinned, petulant, and whiny. Surely that cannot help his chances in 2012.
Mar '11
Re: Unseating Obama -- Part Three: Karma
I agree with Diane - Obama has nothing to worry about so far.
It would be nice to think that Bill Ayers, Jeremiah Wright, Blago, Farrakhan et al. will be his Karmic undoing, but so far he has been lucky, with no reason to think that will change, at least until the history books are written, by which time it will be too late.
The bad Karma is ours.
Edited on Apr 19, 2011 at 12:44pmJul '10
Re: Unseating Obama -- Part Three: Karma
I'm sorry, but Karma is only half of the equation.
One's reaction to the situation is the other. Carter showed his true metal when he punished Olympic Atheletes for the actions of the Soviet Union. His response to the situation in Iran, followed by his response to the Stroming of the Embasy were simple extensions of his feclessness in the international community.
Ronald Reagan had every opportunity for things to go wrong that Carter did. But unlike Carter, he did not insist on a "Windfall Profits Tax" in order to deregulate the Airlines Industry.
Karma meerley sets the stage, the President's response determines the outcome.
Obama was very lucky when he had a spill in the gulf. He had a perfect opportunity to show the 'power of a community organizer.' Had he immediatly recinded all bureaucratic nonsense to allow Jindal and other governers to protect their coastlines, and allow dredging ships from other countries to enter the gulf (like on day 2 of the situation) he would have put himself in front of the situation.
He also would have also been able to end criticizm of the title Community Organizer.
The Drilling Moratorium was Not Karma!
Edited on Apr 19, 2011 at 1:07pmDec '10
Re: Unseating Obama -- Part Three: Karma
Obama's bad karma comes from deciding to win the Presidency in 2008.
A smart guy in his position would have brokered a deal to let Hillary take the nomination with the guarantee of his getting the VP slot on the ticket. That would have been a win-win: either Hillary wins, in which case Barack gets credit for helping her win and gets a four- to eight-year on-the-job training period culminating in becoming the presumptive nominee to succeed her, or Hillary loses, in which case Barack can claim that he would have been the better choice for the top of the ticket and gets a four-year period to build up his experience culminating in becoming the presumptive nominee to unseat McCain in 2012.
Instead, he succumbed to the temptation to claim the top prize. He's paying the price for his impatience and unwillingness to put in the time and effort to prepare for the Presidency. What's even more remarkable is that even after getting the job, he's showing no willingness to put in the time and effort to get up to speed in the job and grow his abilities to match it.
Apr '11
Re: Unseating Obama -- Part Three: Karma
Obama is the president. He's got the world's biggest megaphone. He should be expected to be the presumptive favorite. We have to view ourselves as the underdog who's going to pull off the upset. To expect Obama to be on the ropes now and for the remainder of his term is unrealistic. It will be hard, but be of good cheer. We have something to campaign on that Obama won't want to touch: his record as President.
On the karma issue, the one area where I see Obama potentially getting snake-bit is "common touch" issues. As much as I would like to see the election turn entirely on his failed policies, I think that telling people who can't afford to buy $5/gallon gas that they should go out and buy a new car will rub people the wrong way after 2 or more years of 8% unemployment.
Re: Unseating Obama -- Part Three: Karma
I think that everyone is too pessimistic. Obama has been a disaster. Witness 2010: the biggest Republican surge since the 1920s. He has Obamacare about his neck like an albatross, and he is running on a promise to increase our taxes. The only thing that can save him is the Republican Party -- and they may.
Re: Unseating Obama -- Part Three: Karma
And that's why you're an absolutely invaluable contributor, Dr. Rahe. What ever would we do without your fierce optimism?
Mar '11
Re: Unseating Obama -- Part Three: Karma
That's what worries me.
Feb '11
Re: Unseating Obama -- Part Three: Karma
Put me down as being in the "cautiously optimistic" category. While there are still a lot of things left to be shaken out on the Republican side, one thing we have on our side is that, whatever their various faults, I think the candidates we have so far are at least sincere and honest. (I'm not counting the Trump sideshow attraction in this.)
You could make a lot of arguments for why Reagan won in 1980, but two stand out in my mind: 1) "I am paying for this microphone." and 2) "There you go again."
I can easily envision one of our candidates finding his voice in similar circumstances, (even the verbally challenged GWB had his "I can hear you...and pretty soon the people who knocked these buildings down..." moment), and putting Obama away with one terse, definitive statement.
Maybe something like "Mr. Obama, you've been talking about deficit reduction since the last campaign. Can you explain what happened and why your policies didn't work?" (I'm sure you can come up with your own variation.)
Right now, it's Obama vs the field. Eventually he'll have to run against a person.
Jul '10
Re: Unseating Obama -- Part Three: Karma
Dr. Rahe,
Our experience with the Stupid; er Republican Party is what causes that pessimessim.
And this new congress with the new republican majority isn't really showing us anything to get excited about.