Unseating Obama -- Part One: Any Enemies from Within?
With Republican hopefuls tossing their hats in the ring – well, declaring their intention to explore a possible presidential run – I thought it wise to review some of the key factors in unseating an elected incumbent, then apply said variables to the 2012 race.
Four elected presidents – three Republicans and one Democrat – have failed to secure a second term in the past century: William Howard Taft (1912), Herbert Hoover (1932), Jimmy Carter (1980) and George H.W. Bush (1992).
Let’s begin with factor one: intraparty fratricide.
That would be the idea that a challenger from the incumbent’s base runs a protest campaign. Though lacking the juice to steal the nomination, the malcontent succeeds in adding to the perception of the incumbent’s perceived weakness.
In past ousters . . .
1912. The granddaddy of fratricides. Theodore Roosevelt takes on Taft in the GOP primaries (Wisconsin’s “Fighting Bob” La Follette doing the same). For good measure, TR runs as a third-party candidate in the general. He gets 27% of the November vote; limits Taft to 23%, 8 electoral votes and two measly states (can you name them?). Bully!
1932. Hoover did face a primary challenger – Joseph Irwin France, a former one-term Maryland senator. It wasn’t much of a challenge, as Hoover was renominated on the first ballet. Safe to say the president had bigger problems that year . . .
1980. Ted Kennedy dogs Carter in the primaries. At the national convention, he gives the political speech of his life, but later refuses to join the president in a one-big-happy-family photo op. Ouch.
1992. Pat Buchanan is the burr under Bush 41’s saddle. He torments the president in New Hampshire (37% protest vote), takes a steady one-quarter to one-third in each primary. I have friends who, to this day, argue over what portion of Buchanan’s “Pitchfork Rebellion” has since returned to the GOP field vs. how many became Perotistas or modern-day Tea Partiers.
Does Obama have a challenger-in-wait? I’ll toss out three names to get the conversation rolling.
Dennis Kucinich. The Ohio congressman thinks Obama’s Libya action is an impeachable offense. Perhaps he egg-whips Libya, Gitmo and Afghanistan into a disgruntled liberal soufflé (btw, did you know that Kucinich is also a ventriloquist?)
Russ Feingold. The former Wisconsin senator has started a PAC, Progressives United. That gives him a base of 20,000 donors who see corporate greed through an Oliver Stone lens. Does Feingold want to be this century’s La Follette?
Howard Dean. Iowa hath no fury . . . like a chairman spurned. The former DNC chair wanted to be Obama’s health secretary and didn’t get it. He had polite things to say about the president last week on NPR. But, if Mr. Obama continues to ideologically ping-pong?
So . . . who else do you see as a primary challenger to Obama?
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Comments :
Jun '10
Re: Unseating Obama -- Part One: Any Enemies from Within?
Is it a foregone conclusion that Hilary doesn't take him on?
May '10
Re: Unseating Obama -- Part One: Any Enemies from Within?
There's some weirdness in the GOP Presidential game right now. I believe Trump, whose fortune is utterly dependent on the cooperation of sundry Democratic municipalities and states, is purposely stirring up Birther and other chaos at the behest of his Democratic partners. And who the hell is Hunstman? Are the normal Americans who vote in Republican primaries expected to waste more than 2 seconds considering this guy?
Sep '10
Re: Unseating Obama -- Part One: Any Enemies from Within?
I though Hilary would resign no later than January and start exploring the possibility of running for president again. Obviously I got than one wrong.
If someone does try to run against Obama, I have the feeling the mainstream media and Democrats will shout him down so that any campaign against Obama from the left would never gain traction. I hope I am wrong on that prediction too.
Mar '11
Re: Unseating Obama -- Part One: Any Enemies from Within?
I think those are the three main suspects - Hilary looks tired.
I somehow doubt, though, whether the sharp-creased One will have a challenger in the Primaries. The "progressives" I know seem quite happy with him, but think he is held back from "fundamental change" only by those dumb, nasty, granny-killing Teabaggers and their lackeys in the Republican Congress. I think they know that He is the most articulate, charismatic, Left-wing candidate they can get.
Edited on Apr 17, 2011 at 4:48pmDec '10
Re: Unseating Obama -- Part One: Any Enemies from Within?
(btw, did you know that Kucinich is also a ventriloquist?)
Funny. If you've seen him next to his wife, you'd swear he's the dummy.
In more ways than one.
Dec '10
Re: Unseating Obama -- Part One: Any Enemies from Within?
What I see as much more likely is that if Obama senses he's losing, he'll quit. Do you think he can stand being in the hall of presidential losers?
Edited on Apr 17, 2011 at 5:52pmJun '10
Re: Unseating Obama -- Part One: Any Enemies from Within?
My former governor, son of a very rich man, and pretty squishy (climate change was a big issue with him, until the political winds blew the other way). His only other claim to fame is that he worked for Obama.
Believe me, of the two Mormons in the race, Mitt runs circles around this guy (and that's even with Romneycare).
I will say he's better than Trump or Huckabee. But then so are most Ricochet members.
Jun '10
Re: Unseating Obama -- Part One: Any Enemies from Within?
Ralph Nader
Apr '11
Re: Unseating Obama -- Part One: Any Enemies from Within?
I think the determining factor will be obama's standing in the polls...if he hovers near 50% nobody will want to be seen as helping defeat obama and he likely will not have a challenger...on the other hand if he is hovering in the low 40s or lower and looks like a loser he likely will have a challenger....we shall see!
Edited on Apr 17, 2011 at 7:03pmJul '10
Re: Unseating Obama -- Part One: Any Enemies from Within?
Hay, Standfast, perhaps Obama has an opponent and the "mainstream media" hasn't let Us know yet..... and maybe won't....
Sep '10
Re: Unseating Obama -- Part One: Any Enemies from Within?
My money is on Paules' pick. I can come up with no one.
Sep '10
Re: Unseating Obama -- Part One: Any Enemies from Within?
AmishDude:
Funny. If you've seen him next to his wife, you'd swear he's the dummy.
I have seen a picture of his wife and I have never seen an odder pairing. That being said he is no dummy in that department.
Jan '11
Re: Unseating Obama -- Part One: Any Enemies from Within?
Come to think of it ... it's one thing to consider who would take on Obama next year. But think of 2016. The Dems don't have anyone there, either.
The political bullpen is notoriously weak, on both sides, if you ask me.
Re: Unseating Obama -- Part One: Any Enemies from Within?
I think the GOP bullpen is quite long -- but "long" in the sense of a lot of talent that's not necessarily ready until the 2016 presidential cycle. Quite the opposite of the Democrats' dilemma: dearth of talent in 2013 and beyond. Getting creamed in gubernatorial races will do that to ya!
As for Kucinich and ventriloquism . . . hard to think of a creepier way to introduce yourself to voters. Does anyone remember Anthony Hopkins in "Magic"?
Edited on Apr 17, 2011 at 8:09pmApr '11
Re: Unseating Obama -- Part One: Any Enemies from Within?
If Obama is challenged, it will be by someone with less at stake. When Bill Bradley challenged Gore, Gore was sitting Vice President and Bradley had been out of the Senate for 4 years. Buchanan was and is a political commentator. This is more likely to be the model of a challenger to Obama. If the challenger already has some name recognition, I would expect it to be Feingold, but it's as likely as not to be someone we've never heard of.
We have heard much about not striking the king unless you kill him in the context of Libya, but that's no less true in politics.
Kennedy's challenge of Carter is an anomaly in modern times. Carter was polling under 30 percent and Kennedy thought he was entitled to it. (See Roger Mudd interview to see his sense of entitlement exposed.) Reagan v. Ford is also unusual, since Ford had never been on a presidential ticket. His legitimacy was bound to be challenged.
Jan '11
Re: Unseating Obama -- Part One: Any Enemies from Within?
Agreed. I forgot that by then, Christie, Rubio, and a few others would be more seasoned and probably ready.
Jan '11
Re: Unseating Obama -- Part One: Any Enemies from Within?
The recent Australian experience may have clues - insanely popular, faintly messianic left-of-centre leader (Kevin Rudd), lionised and loved by the local MSM, sweeps to victory against a long-standing incumbent. Leader turns out to be dud, but retains significant public popularity, even though he never truly wins factional support in his own party. The moment this public support wavers (and I mean quickly - 2 poor polls), he is immediately knifed by his party in favour of his deputy, who is a deep factional player. She goes to quick election, scrapes home by virtue of unstable coalition with independents and Greens.
There are obviously differences in the system, but the factions can be skittish when spooked.
Edited on Apr 18, 2011 at 6:23amMay '10
Re: Unseating Obama -- Part One: Any Enemies from Within?
Yes. I'd like to see more analysis on this question. When talking long-term prospects, the usual topic is demographics. Why don't more people notice that the Democrats have zero (zilch! Nada!) talent in the younger generation? All the exciting up-and-comers are right-wingers.
Oh, and I'd also like to ask why everyone has given up on Bobby Jindal. What's he up to these days? A mind the size of a planet is a terrible thing to waste. It's not at all clear to me that he needs to wait until 2016 to act.
Feb '11
Re: Unseating Obama -- Part One: Any Enemies from Within?
So what's Obama's approval rating with "progressives", anyway?
That will have more impact on the odds of a primary challenge than what his general approval rating happens to be.
If he is popular with the leftist base- and I think he is- I don't think he has to worry about a primary challenge at all.
Perhaps that logic is why Hillary looks to be passing on the chance to take a run at him.