Unemployment v. forecast. Oops.
Did Kudlow on Friday night, the topic, of course, being the really poor unemployment figures.
As I mentioned on the show, this doesn't compare well to the 5.7% forecast for May '12 if we only just passed the stimulus bill in Feb. '09. Awkward.
It's worse if you look at the readjustment to the last two months - both had to be adjusted downwards (No, really? We are shocked! shocked!), so subtracting out those fictional 49,000 jobs we thought were there but weren't, and assuming the present 69,000 number is itself accurate, we're down to 20,000 jobs created. Oops.
Not only has the rate ticked up to 8.2%, or 14.8% if you count the uncounted discouraged workers, but if you look, per Generation Opportunity, at just young adults 18-29, their unemployment rate is 12.1%, or including the 1.7mm who are no longer looking for jobs, 16.9%. Not the hope and change they had in mind.
A nice little point of contrast is Wisconsin, Land of the Perpetual Recall. Only under that putative meanie, Gov. Walker, unemployment is down to 6.7%, and they've created over 27,000 jobs in the last year. Policies matter. Job climate matters. Heck, understanding economics matters.
But over in the federal government, while Republicans at last count have passed 27 bills out of the Congress to help reduce regulatory burdens and uncertainty and encourage capital investment and new employees, the priority of the Democrat-controlled Senate? "Paycheck Fairness", which ought more accurately be called the "Skip Women, Hire a Trial Lawyer" Act. Great way to make employment WORSE for women. But who cares about consequences? This is politics!
But here's the interesting thing: Last year, when the SS Obama was riding high on the seas of OWS, not a democratic peep was heard defending capital or free markets. Now, suddenly, there is a growing chorus, defending not only their private equity donors, but Romney! and capitalism! The human tendency to separate oneself from a sinking loser is asserting to itself. Democratic funders have to be wondering if these are policies, and if this is a candidate, they really want to support.
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Aug '10
Re: Unemployment v. forecast. Oops.
The jobs report is actually even worse than that. Take a look at the part time workers data, and you'll notice that there was a loss of full time jobs, offset with a larger increase in part time jobs. So the few gains that we got were lower quality than we would like.And this continues a trend we saw back in 2008, when seasonally adjusted full time jobs fell below part time jobs. This "cross" on the charts never reversed; part time jobs have been the higher number ever since.(I would link the charts and data, but it's a nearly impossible task from the cell phone I am currently using.)
Jan '11
Re: Unemployment v. forecast. Oops.
Whether it was just Bush, or Fannie & Freddie, or Wall Street greed, or Barney Frank, or a maladjustment of the moon and Aquarius, we know that we have a dramatic economic problem.
We also have (almost) four years of evidence that Obama isn't the answer.
We do know that we aren't lacking cash. The cash is there. But not enough people are investing it, and until they invest it, there won't be any new or expanded businesses.
The chief reason people aren't going to invest (by consensus) is that they don't like the business climate. They're being told that if they are successful, they're going to pay more in taxes. Their businesses will come under more and more bureaucratic scrutiny, and that any mistake will be prosecuted to the full extent of the law. That's not a risk-friendly environment.
The government openly tells you they're going to squeeze every dime out of you, but amazingly, they're mystified that people aren't investing.
Dec '11
Re: Unemployment v. forecast. Oops.
One of my jobs is to find technology talent for my customers. You'd think that, with such high unemployment, every posting would generate serious interest. But you'd be wrong.Those that have work aren't budging. They're scared to make a move that might leave them on the outside looking in. So that means that their current job isn't available for the next person, and on it goes down the line. If this goes on for much longer, I predict that not only will Obama lose in November but that we are in real danger of civil unrest ... Especially in union stronghold cities.
Apr '11
Re: Unemployment v. forecast. Oops.
You did a great job on the show, Heather. I watch Kudlow frequently and you really keep your cool and offer serious, salient points - a real challenge with all the cross yammering.
As to your point here, yes. It's beginning to look like Obama has the loser taint about him and establishment Dems are tip-toeing away. I have to say, I'm enjoying watching this - a bit of schadenfreude. Not a terrific attitude considering how many nice folks are suffering due to unemployment or underemployment.
Jan '11
Re: Unemployment v. forecast. Oops.
Please please I hope your prediction is accurate.
Fixing our spending/entitlement will be painful. Isolated civil unrest is probably the best case scenario if Scott Walker wins, Obamacare is declared totally unconstitutional, Illinois goes bankrupt, Holder is indicted, debt limit is not increased and Republicans retain the house and take the presidency and senate.