Two Potential Short-Term Outcomes to the Hamas-Fatah Reconciliation
Judith Levy ·
May 1, 2011 at 2:01am
Hamas made almost no concessions to achieve its unity deal with the Palestinian Authority, and has enjoyed a nice boost in prestige as its result. It has also benefited from the subsequent loss of (already minimal) international interest in the dissatisfaction of Gazans with their hopelessly incompetent and repressive regime. But Hamas will not necessarily remain the only beneficiary of its reconciliation with Fatah. Two dividends could accrue to Israel as well -- one international and the other domestic.
- Netanyahu will be speaking before Congress later this month. He has been under tremendous pressure to come up with some kind of viable peace initiative to forestall the drive toward the unilateral declaration of a Palestinian state that is to come before the UN General Assembly in September. By allying with Hamas, Abbas has handed Netanyahu an out. The onus is on the Palestinians now, not Israel, to prove their good faith. Bibi can make the point before Congress that if the Palestinians are still interested in a two-state solution -- and, more importantly, will be satisfied with a two-state solution once it exists -- Hamas will have to lay down its arms against Israel and recognize Israel's right to exist. Since these contingencies are highly unlikely, the heat should come off Israel (if only briefly) with regard to the peace process.
- Hamas and Fatah want to hold elections in the fall. Palestinians on the ground (if not their advocates abroad) are fully aware that on a domestic policy level, the Hamas regime has been a catastrophic failure. If Hamas wants to get its roster elected (as "independents," of course), they're going to have to throw the people something to cheer about, and they're going to have to do it fast. As Haaretz notes, hundreds of Palestinian prisoners pouring out of Israeli jails and into the welcoming arms of their families would make a heck of a photo op. And it can be accomplished by releasing Gilad Shalit.
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Comments :
Feb '11
Re: Two Potential Short-Term Outcomes to the Hamas-Fatah Reconciliation
Why, Judith, do you assume (in your point 1) that this will make life easier for Netanyahu? Our friends are our friends anyway. Everyone else just moves the goalposts.
And why on earth (in your point 2) do you consider "hundreds of Palestinian prisoners pouring out of Israeli jails and into the welcoming arms of their families" in exchange for Shalit to be considered a dividend for Israel? Because Haaretz says so? Really?
Feb '11
Re: Two Potential Short-Term Outcomes to the Hamas-Fatah Reconciliation
Sorry. It posted twice.
Edited on May 1, 2011 at 3:18amJun '10
Re: Two Potential Short-Term Outcomes to the Hamas-Fatah Reconciliation
Same song, new verse. Once the Palis get a State, they can legally arm to the teeth right out in the open. I suppose the advantage of this would be that they will no longer have to hide behind their women and children...not that that would matter to them.
Re: Two Potential Short-Term Outcomes to the Hamas-Fatah Reconciliation
Of course it helps Bibi to be handed the chance to change the conversation away from Israel's perceived intransigence to the apparent decision by Abbas, Israel's alleged peace partner, to ally with Israel's mortal enemy. Until the unity deal was announced, Bibi was expected to come up with a shiny new peace plan for his May address with which to entice Abbas back to the table. Now he can quite reasonably redirect attention to Abbas's choice of a jihadist ally, which amounts to a decision -- by the PA, not by us -- to annul the Oslo Accords. It's completely self-defeating to approach an unexpected strategic positive like that by saying "oh, what's the use -- whoever's against us is against us." There's some urgency, especially now, to showing fence-sitters -- and they exist, believe it or not -- where the opposition really stands. And the opposition has just made the point for us.
Re: Two Potential Short-Term Outcomes to the Hamas-Fatah Reconciliation
Hundreds of Palestinian prisoners pouring out of Israeli jails is not the dividend, Israel. The dividend is Gilad coming home.
You believe a prisoner exchange for Gilad is unacceptable because of the message it would send to would-be kidnappers. That is a very strong -- indeed, logically incontrovertible -- argument. The family's counterargument is that Israel has already sent that message many times over, and the country has a moral obligation to bring its soldiers home.
Gilad's five-year captivity is an open wound here. It guts every family that is expected to send its children into the maw of the battle. That shared anguish at the suffering of a single soldier is undoubtedly an Israeli Achilles heel. It is exploitable and will be exploited again. But don't underestimate the magnitude of national pain Gilad's captivity has caused, and the relief -- however temporary -- his return would bring.
Aug '10
Re: Two Potential Short-Term Outcomes to the Hamas-Fatah Reconciliation
Netanyahu needs to use his address to Congress to give the West some home truths about Hamas and about their apologists and allies in the Free Gaza Movement,IHH, etc; he needs to call out the Boycotters, the moral equivalencers, the UNHRC, the whole lot of them.There's too much fuzzy thinking among the public at large about Islamists in general and Hamas (and to some extent Hezbollah) and this feeds into Israel's poor international standing.
Aug '10
Re: Two Potential Short-Term Outcomes to the Hamas-Fatah Reconciliation
Oops!
Edited on May 1, 2011 at 12:33pmNov '10
Re: Two Potential Short-Term Outcomes to the Hamas-Fatah Reconciliation
On the other hand, if the Palis get their own state, then they won't be able to hide behind the "resistance" label. There are certain responsibilities that come with statehood, not the least of which is "don't attack your neighbors for no apparent reason." If Hamas continues their blind rocket attacks after Palestinian independence is established, then Israel can simply declare war against a belligerent neighbor in a nice, neat, legally unambiguous way.
Of course that won't stop the Arabs from claiming that Israel actually doesn't have a right to defend itself, but hopefully the Europeans will get cluebatted when they see how implacable the Palestinians really are.