If the negotiating parties can't make a deal on the debt ceiling, the American voters are going to blame the Republicans, according to the most recent Quinnipiac Poll:
Voters would blame congressional Republicans more than the Obama administration if the $14.3 trillion debt ceiling is not raised, according to a new poll released Thursday by Quinnipiac University.
Forty-eight percent of those polled said Republicans would be mainly responsible if the debt ceiling is not raised, compared to 34 percent who said the Obama administration.
I suspect it's this number that's giving Obama the courage to storm out of the negotiating sessions. It might even be encouraging him to let the talks blow up. After all, he needs something to animate his re-election campaign.
Although, that's a bad strategy. The presidential election isn't going to be about a party. It's going to be about a head-to-head match-up. There aren't any presidential candidates aside from Obama in those meetings. When blame time comes, it'll hurt him much, much more than it'll hurt the Republican presidential candidate.
And also: Obama's trailing in some key swing states. From Public Policy Polling:
Barack Obama's annual summer polling swoon has come to North Carolina. For the first time since February more voters disapprove than approve of him in the state, and for the first time since November he faces majority disapproval. His approval rating this month is down to 45%, with 51% of voters unhappy with him.
A sharp turn against him with independent voters is what's causing Obama problems in the state.
And that's not all:
This is the third key swing state in the last week, along with New Hampshire and Pennsylvania, where we've found Obama with under water approval numbers and struggling in head to heads with Romney. Obama's poll numbers have seemed to go bad every summer since he went to the heart of the American spotlight and they usually see some recovery- he'll have to hope that will be the case again this time around.
He's weak and he's desperate. Which is why he needs a deal more than the Republicans do, despite the Q poll numbers. (Because "blame" and "credit" are often close together.) The Republicans should hold firm.
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Aug '10
Re: Two Polls
Absolutely hold firm. Dayton just caved in Minnesota. The IBD editorial is a good one, showing how he let slip the sad truth about the Social Security "Trust Fund" myth. And he told Cantor "don't call my bluff, Eric" . What bluff ? Two big mistakes.
Of course, now we would have to see some MSM participation..........
Dec '10
Re: Two Polls
Funny. I thought the second poll you were going to cite is the one where 67% (?) of Americans don't want the debt ceiling raised, which would make the first poll look a lot more like ascribing credit than blame. It is also logically consistent with reality. If the debt ceiling doesn't get raised, it will be because of Republicans trying to put the brakes on spending.
Sep '10
Re: Two Polls
This is ludicrious.
These are the scenarios being presented to us:
(1) If the Republicans give Obama a deal, he can claim to be the moderate and demonize them as the true obstructionists.
(2) If the Republicans don't give Obama a deal, he can claim to be the moderate and demonize them as the true obstructionists.
My advice: Go for the body and the head will follow. They're going to demonize you either way boyz and girls, so keep hammering him with the gut shots, get the spending rolled back and then pray for deliverance when the elections come around cause he's spending the US into oblivion and there's not going to be a Republic left to fight over if someone doesn't man up and show some leadership.
We've determined the President likes to lead from behind internationally, so let him do the same thing domestically.
Keep up the body shots.
Dec '10
Re: Two Polls
Republicans should stand firm regardless of the polls. This should be about doing what is right for the country and not about political achievement. Yes, I know that a certain amount of political captial is required to do what is right for the country.
May '10
Re: Two Polls
Rob Long:
You didn't just seriously cite a university poll to guage a Democrats-vs-Republicans preference, did you?
I'm not a fan of polls in general, but let's at least stick to the big dogs (Gallup, Pew, etc).
May '10
Re: Two Polls
I quote Rush from yesterday again (I did it earlier in response to Claire on Mitt):
We need leaders who are more serious about fixing the problem than fixing the blame.
Ryan/Rubio in 2012!!
Edited on Jul 14, 2011 at 9:25amMay '10
Re: Two Polls
And let's not forget this gem from Reagan: "It's amazing how much you can get done if you don't care who gets the credit."
Sep '10
Re: Two Polls
I second Aaron's sentiment, Rob. This poll you're citing is not agreeing with the others that have been recently done. At worst all it tells the GOP to do is get out the message more because people are not sure what to think yet. And that message is a simple one, easily explained with a credit card metaphor that everyone can grasp:
America is spending more than it makes every month, and putting the difference on its credit cards. Now, as the credit limits are reached, America can either choose to spend less and live within its means, or it can ask for more credit and keep on spending, risking damaging its credit and potentially going into bankruptcy.
Do we want to be responsible, or do we want to run up the credit cards? The only objection is Keynesianism, and that can be rebutted because it is domonstrably false. Plus, and rhetorically advantageous, according to the own internal logic of the theory, the flip side of low aggregate demand, because of the death spiral of sticky wages, is inflation to get prices to be back in alignment with wages by devaluing the wages.
Obama is proposing inflation. Simple.
Sep '10
Re: Two Polls
Just looked at the party breakdown for this poll. Heavily overweighted to Ds and some overweight to Is. Plus, the disapproval of Obama among Ds in the poll is higher than the overall disapproval number in the poll. That's grossly different that any other polling for months.
This is a bad poll. Case closed.
Back to winning the debate, which as I said shouldn't be hard since the facts are actually on our side, facts which people are sympathetic too. The GOP just needs to bypass the MSM and go straight to the people on this one. Maybe some snap town halls would be a way to get some innitiative back without having to vote on a resolution, since the negotiations don't require all the membership they can spend one day traveling, having a town hall, and traveling back.
Sep '10
Re: Two Polls
flownover: Absolutely hold firm. Dayton just caved in Minnesota. The IBD editorial is a good one, showing how he let slip the sad truth about the Social Security "Trust Fund" myth. And he told Cantor "don't call my bluff, Eric" . What bluff ? Two big mistakes.
Of course, now we would have to see some MSM participation.......... · Jul 14 at 9:07am
Thanks for the IBD link.
Jul '10
Re: Two Polls
When Gallup shows that 53% of those following events don't want the debt ceiling raised at all, if it is raised the Republicans will be blamed.
Obama is a sea change, you're paddling in the wrong direction.
Jul '10
Re: Two Polls
flownover: ... And [Obama] told Cantor "don't call my bluff, Eric" . What bluff ? ...
I have read six accounts of these same events, and you are the first one to point out the outrageousness of Obama's language. Bluff, bluster, blame. The emperor has no cards, either.
Mar '11
Re: Two Polls
Rob - aren't you supposed to be on some ship out in the middle of nowhere?
Well, I hope you are right and Mr Murphy is wrong.
In which case, assuming that Mr Ryan doesn't run, Michele Bachmann would be our best shot - I'm with Peter.
Oh, and, as she is a lady, I don't think her height is a factor, James.
Mar '11
Re: Two Polls
Sisyphus: When Gallup shows that 53% of those following events don't want the debt ceiling raised at all, if it is raised the Republicans will be blamed.
Obama is a sea change, you're paddling in the wrong direction.
Yes, that was what struck me in the latest Podcast - I think it was, like, 60% or more of the voters don't want the debt ceiling raised, yet only about 60 members of congress would definately vote against a raise in the debt ceiling? There seems to be a disconnect, here, between the will of the people and the politicians.
Of course, one of those 60 is Michele Bachmann, which would seem to put her in a winning position - what am I missing?
Sep '10
Re: Two Polls
what am I missing?
A staff of 14, driver, defined benefit pension plan, free haircuts, weight room, gym and a district in the great republic of Incumbistan.
May '10
Re: Two Polls
Exactly what I was thinking. I would be willing to be that those numbers change when "blame" is more accurately interpreted as credit.
Look, this isn't as complicated as it sounds. Most adults have to manage their personal finances. Nobody thinks you can go on spending on your Mastercard forever by borrowing off your VISA. It's really that simple.
The challenge will be to cut generally across the board so that oxes get gored somewhat equally. It's the difficult part...but most of the country is ahead of Washington in seeing that this is where we have to head...and soon. 2012 may be too late.
Oct '10
Re: Two Polls
Voters would blame congressional Republicans more than the Obama administration if the $14.3 trillion debt ceiling is not raised, according to a new poll released Thursday by Quinnipiac University.
Forty-eight percent of those polled said Republicans would be mainly responsible if the debt ceiling is not raised, compared to 34 percent who said the Obama administration.
Ahhh, poll questions. I probably would have responded by "blaming" Republicans as well, just as a matter of fact. I'm not aware of many Democrats who are not interested in raising the debt ceiling. Of course, I think not raising the debt ceiling is a good thing.
Like Keith, I see it more as credit, rather than blame. But I am one of those know nothing wackos that Mike Murphy warns about.
Edited on Jul 14, 2011 at 1:59pmJul '11
Re: Two Polls
The problem with a poll like this is that it assumes a "deal" on the debt ceiling would be a good thing. That, of course, is not consistent with what the majority of respondents in other polls have stated, namely, that the debt ceiling should not be raised (hence, a deal to do so would not be considered a good thing). Ask a stupid question, get a stupid answer.
Oct '10
Re: Two Polls
Kaus and EJ Dionne says Obama is vulnerable to this move
Edited on Jul 14, 2011 at 11:20pm