Two Notes On China (Neither Encouraging)
Shortly before the Secretary of Defense was to meet with the civilian leaders of China on his goodwill mission earlier this week, the Chinese military welcomed Gates to Beijing by testing its new stealth bomber. Which put me in mind of a couple of recent conversations.
In one, my friend Clark Judge, who knows a lot of history, mentioned that contemporary China reminds him of Wilhelmine Germany.
Under Bismarck, Clark explained, Germany underwent a period of rapid industrialization, enabling a new class of merchants and manufacturers to grow rich while extending new, higher standards of living to millions of ordinary Germans. Yet while the rest of the country was becoming richer and freer, the military remained under the control of the Prussian warrior caste headed, of course, by the house of Hohenzollern. In 1914, plenty of German civilians, including wealthy merchants, opposed war. None of their opposition mattered. What the Kaiser wanted, the Kaiser got.
China may lack any hereditary caste comparable to the Prussians, Clark said. But we’re still seeing rapid economic growth and the liberalization of civilian life in the face of a Communist Party and military command structure that remain in place—indeed, all but untouched.
In a second conversation, I happened to be seated at dinner with Harvard Professor of History William Kirby, one of the half dozen or so most distinguished scholars of modern China in the world. If Lenin or Stalin could see modern Russia, Prof. Kirby remarked, he would scarcely recognize any of the institutions. The Communist Party? Tiny and irrelevant. The Supreme Soviet? The politburo? The general secretary? All long gone. If by contrast Mao were to appear in contemporary China, Prof. Kirby continued, he would feel entirely at home. The Communist Party remains in charge, its basic institutions unchanged.
Not, as I say, encouraging.
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Oct '10
Re: Two Notes On China (Neither Encouraging)
Let us hope that a Sarajevo 1914 moment never comes to pass. However, one might draw another analogy between the Balkans of the early 1900s and the increasingly unstable Korean peninsula of the early 2000s. And there is, of course, much historical precedent for Chinese military involvement in the latter area.
Edited on Jan 12, 2011 at 10:31pmMay '10
Re: Two Notes On China (Neither Encouraging)
The Chinese intend to drive the US out of the South China Sea. That is step one. But they will not do it by direct aggression. They will try to tie the US up in some other part of the world first.
Jun '10
Re: Two Notes On China (Neither Encouraging)
The question in my mind is how long the Chinese people will put up with a ruling party that is a large and ravenous parasite on the back of the body politic? Ideology aside, the party has become in practice a kleptocratic oligarchy with all the tools of a police state at its disposal. Can a nation remain wealthy without the rule of law to protect property that is duly earned by an industrious populace?
If China is bent on military adventure, say Taiwan for example, such a policy would be a reversion to the days when Romans, Mongols, and Ottomans grew wealthy by conquering and looting their neighbors. That's not how nations grow rich in the 21st century. Perhaps the Chinese are embarking on a policy of neo-imperialism whereby they intervene in smaller states to prop up friendly dictators who can guarantee a flow of raw materials?
I'm not a Sinologist. I don't know what the Chicoms are up to. But military adventurism seems to me more perilous than it is potentially profitable. And what of the predictions that China will grow old before it grows wealthy? I don't get it.
Jun '10
Re: Two Notes On China (Neither Encouraging)
As an old civilization, the Chinese have a much broader definition of "recent history." It's not the American short-range view of history. Looking back a hundred, or two-hundred years, the West was rather imperialistic (much more than today) because it could be, and the Chinese, especially the leadership, think they have the power now and it's their turn to be imperialistic. "What are you going to do about it?" Not much.
Aug '10
Re: Two Notes On China (Neither Encouraging)
~Paules: how long the Chinese people will put up with a ruling party that is a large and ravenous parasite on the back of the body politic? the party has become a kleptocratic oligarchy with all the tools of a police state at its disposal.
I
After reading Mao, I was appalled at the terror it required him to rule his country. You're right about the country possibly refusing to support this buildup, but the capacity for cruelty there is strong. The red princelings who rule the manufacturing as their aged parents rule the military will be the targets of a classic peasant hatred. The gender imbalance will be a problem too, with too many men, too much testosterone, and too many military opportunities. Combine that with a NoKo breakdown, you may have the recipe for an internal struggle.
Our deliberate negligence will have its price here as well. But what better incentive to default when pushed to it by regional bullying ? Friedman is dusting off his Thesaurus as we speak.
Dec '10
Re: Two Notes On China (Neither Encouraging)
flownover
The gender imbalance will be a problem too, with too many men, too much testosterone, and too many military opportunities.
I think this is important, like the military industrial complex the theory is if you have a lot of new toys you may be more inclined to try them out. I've heard numbers floated such as 1 million more men than women. I can imagine the ruling class may be more inclined to use them as well.
May '10
Re: Two Notes On China (Neither Encouraging)
I think that is right; it seems they are seeing their opportunity to make their move while there is a pacifist, inwardly turned administration in the White House whose hallmark seems to be a severe allergy to international confrontation.
US timidity is lowering the cost of Chinese provocation.
Re: Two Notes On China (Neither Encouraging)
Mike LaRoche: Let us hope that a Sarajevo 1914 moment never comes to pass. However, one might draw another analogy between the Balkans of the early 1900s and the increasingly unstable Korean peninsula of the early 2000s. And there is, of course, much historical precedent for Chinese military involvement in the latter area. · Jan 12 at 10:30pm
Edited on Jan 12 at 10:31 pm
The Balkans and the Korean peninsula. Hm. Hadn't thought of that parallel. But it's only too striking.
Nov '10
Re: Two Notes On China (Neither Encouraging)
That prediction was made by Mark Steyn, whose specialty is demographics.
In Chinas, sons are revered more than daughters. So, when China introduced its One-Child Policy (one child per family) in 1978, the results were predictable — and horrifying. The number of female fetuses aborted skyrocketed. Rumor suggests that female infanticide is not uncommon.
China has unwittingly created two big problems for itself. First of all, the old will eventually outnumber the young (as in Japan). Second, it now has a surplus of young men who cannot get any action. Male energy combined with sexual frustration is a sure recipe for widespread social instability.
May '10
Re: Two Notes On China (Neither Encouraging)
Lady Kurobara
...China has unwittingly created two big problems for itself. First of all, the old will eventually outnumber the young (as in Japan). Second, it now has a surplus of young men who cannot get any action. Male energy combined with sexual frustration is a sure recipe for widespread social instability. · Jan 13 at 12:59pm
Or they can direct their frustration outward, towards another country which doesn't show the proper respect for China. China is essentially a fascist country, minus one. They lack a charismatic leader.