Turkish Election Update—93% in
Since Ricochet has established a wide lead on the competition as America’s leading center-right outlet for discussing Turkish electoral politics, I figure y’all are starved for an update.
Looks like so far it's AKP 327 ( ≈50% of the vote), CHP 136 (≈25%, Istanbul, the Aegean cost, and Tunceli), MHP 53, Other 34. So I’m thinking it’s looking like the AKP will not pick up a supermajority which will allow them to change the Constitution without referendum (they need 367 seats for that) but will pretty handily get the 330 which will allow them to submit a new constitution for a referendum. Which, judging by their past successes, would likely pass.
I haven’t found a source for whence the remaining 7% of ballot boxes are coming, which is of course, important for guessing what's in ’em.
Allah bilir, as they say. (God only knows…)
- Comment (6)
- · Quote
- · UnfollowFollow (0)
Comments :
Jul '10
Re: Turkish Election Update—93% in
And so Turkey will continue its drift away from secularism and liberal institutions and back toward its Ottoman roots. Where is that whole Turkey joining the European Union movement at this point?
Jun '11
Re: Turkish Election Update—93% in
Will the Democratic Party (which is a Kemalist centre-right party) win any seats?
May '10
Re: Turkish Election Update—93% in
What does this mean for the future of Joanne Kloppenburg? That poor woman can't catch a break.
Re: Turkish Election Update—93% in
Sisyphus, I would hesitate to say Turkey is heading “back towards its Ottoman roots.” There is a strain of politics in the AKP that is sometimes called “neo-Ottomanist” but it’s based on a fantasy vision of the Ottoman Empire, rather than its actual historical reality.
Whatever shape the Republic takes under the new constitution—even if it's as phantasmagorically bad as Daniel “this is the last free election in Turkey” Pipes—predicts, it will no more be based on the actual Ottoman Empire any more than Austrian politics could take their country back to the Hapsburg Empire.
“Ottoman” is often used as a shorthand for “backwards” or “religiously obscurantist” or “belligerent” or just plain “bad.” But given that modern Turkey (not to even speak of the rest of the world) operates in a relative historical vacuum with regards to its Ottoman past, it’s clearer if one sets aside the ostensible allusion for the concept one means.
Re: Turkish Election Update—93% in
Oh, and near as I can tell, this is around the first time in a while that the EU seems kind of irrelevant to Turkish politics, with domestic politics really consuming everyone's interest. Also, I think the economically literate folks figure they actually dodged a bullet with the Euro zone.
Jul '10
Re: Turkish Election Update—93% in
Thanks for the response, Bill, you make some excellent points. I've noted the romantic Ottomanism in the English language Turkish press, and Claire has touched on it before. The Caliphate has been gone long enough now that myth-rolling can be done with almost a straight face.
When you say that Ottoman is shorthand, is that inside Turkey or among observers of Turkey?
I can't take the Turks to task for what they teach as history given what my kids are being taught. Fortunately, Mrs. Sisyphus and I are both history nuts so the schools only get so far with that. Still, there are people living only a few miles from me who think that stripping Jefferson's name from a school is a blow for freedom and know that all contrary views are hateful and racist.
Still, from Iran to Egypt to Saudi Arabia there seems to be a big game of "Where's the Caliph," if only as a motivator for Islamo-centrist politics. Of course, each has reasons to expect they are the appropriate seat for such a thing, and bits of Turkey appear interested in getting a piece of that action.