Turkey and Israel: Business as Usual
Shortly after last year's Gaza Flotilla, Okan and I began working on a documentary about the Mavi Marmara incident. The project never got off the ground (for lack of funding), but I was thinking about it today. Turned out that this kid proved our best political prognosticator: "Such things happen. They'll make up. That's that."
From today's Hürriyet Daily News: Why business as usual between Israel and Turkey:
The well-known secret around town nowadays is the increasing number of contacts between Israel and Turkey. I don’t know whether official contacts are working in the right direction. There are rumors, but when in the economy, there are concrete figures. When it comes to the economy; it is business as usual between Israel and Turkey. Let me tell you why ...
There are two ancient principles of diplomacy to recall when trying to understand this. They rarely fail anyone. The first, as Lord Palmerston said, is that nations have no permanent friends or allies, they only have permanent interests.
The second, as every Turk has been taught since infancy, is that a Turk has no friend but a Turk. Don't ever get too excited about the ideas that Turkey has been lost to the West or regained by the West or "gone Islamist" or "stayed secular." It's a country with distinct national interests that it may be expected to pursue at all times--often shortsightedly, often foolishly, but always in the service of what it perceives to be its own interests. Nothing special about that, it's just what nations do.
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May '10
Re: Turkey and Israel: Business as Usual
Anything sounds more reasonable from a girl that pretty.
The trick to predicting national interests, I suspect (I'm certainly no expert), is distinguishing between the people's interests and the leaders' interests. Peoples change gradually. Political leadership can turn on a dime.
How much have Turkey's "national interests" changed since its recent elections?
Re: Turkey and Israel: Business as Usual
See the post above this one. As for her, well, linear thinking wasn't her strong suit, but remember we just asked people on the street, at random, what they thought: It wasn't as if she'd had time to think through her response before.
Nov '10
Re: Turkey and Israel: Business as Usual
Palmerston's statement makes sense to me, if, but only if, a nation has the wit and will to discern its interests and to let them guide its actions. It seems to me that the current administration in Washington can do none of the above. I hope that the Turks can do better and will.
Re: Turkey and Israel: Business as Usual
The Turks, like the Israelis, have this advantage over our compatriots. The danger is close and real. It is not far away. It cannot be mistaken for fantasy. If there is trouble in Syria, the Israelis and Turks will quickly discover that they have common interests, and even a bigot like Erdogan will take note. A dreamer in Washington, however, can imagine that our country would be better off if it had a lot more trouble in defending itself. Not so, in the eastern Mediterranean.
Dec '10
Re: Turkey and Israel: Business as Usual
Lord Palmerston and George Freidman of Stratfor are in agreement - over time nations will always act in their own preceived interests. Friedman goes further and posits that interests and opportunities are in large part dictated by geography. Freidman has written extensively about Turkey and predicts that it will be a major world player over the next hundred years, as much because of geography as for any other reason.
From what I pick up from Ms. Berlinski, it appears that Turkey's rise to prominence, as predicted by Freidman, will have more to do with the natural consequences of the hand they have been dealt than their playing of it. Iran, on the other hand, is much less advantageously situated geographically and its attempt to rise to dominance may be thwarted for that reason alone, despite its regime's apparent superior strategic abilities.
Oct '10
Re: Turkey and Israel: Business as Usual
She sounds like quite the Hamas supporter. She believes that it was "obvious an attack [on the flotilla] would take place", and that prior to the raid, Israel said, "we're going to strike this ship". She believes Turkey "should have had a firmer stance" against Israel.
She seems to think people in Gaza are starving: "'bread and water aren't things that can be resolved politically". She honestly believes that flotilla's primary purpose was to deliver aid? Did the Turkish media not report that Israel simply wanted to inspect the cargo and send it into Gaza by land? Does the Turkish media not report on Hamas' attacks on Israel, and their ultimate goal, or does she agree with those?
And was this directed at the PKK? - "people unfortunately die all at once...I sometimes wish this would happen to the....bad people in this country".."let them die". So she sounds like she supports all out war against Israel, and genocide against the Kurds. Business as usual.