David Goldman (also known as Spengler) has a typically interesting piece at Asia Times about the worsening economic situation in Turkey. Goldman thinks that there is a Turkish economic bubble that is in the process of bursting. This is especially troublesome in light of the grave economic situation in North Africa, Syria, Iran, and Pakistan (among other places in these regions).
Goldman foresees serious economic problems and related insecurity stretching from North Africa to the borders of China. He has already offered a disturbing prognosis about Egypt's economy (see also here, here, here,and here). In light of the ongoing discussions about Iran on this site, we should note the grave social and economic problems in the Islamic Republic.
If Goldman is right, and I suspect he is, then the US will have to live with ongoing social, economic, and political turmoil in the very near future in these regions in addition to the issue of Iranian nukes.
We will have to do some hard thinking about our "interests" in the region. Necessity will compel us to think more clearly than either Presidents Bush or Obama have about geopolitical realities.
This does not mean we will reach prudent conclusions as a nation, but harsh consequences do make clear thought more likely. Soft times are hard times for thinking!
I see no evidence that either the Obama administration or any of the contenders for the Republican nomination see what is happening with any clarity.
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Aug '10
Re: Turkey and Economic Instability from North Africa to Southwest Asia
Bubbles, bubbles everywhere . And none of them in a drink ! We have zero/ zilch chances of prognosticating the course of events about to involve us. So what 's new ? Is it going to be about insulating oneself, arming oneself literally or figuratively , or just resolving to muddle through ? All those great English quips are ringing a bit hollow these days . Is losing an advantage as hard as losing an empire ?
Edited on Jan 9 at 5:45pmDec '11
Re: Turkey and Economic Instability from North Africa to Southwest Asia
Although it is likely that many of these could burst I do not think that all of them will. I have a feeling that this worldwide recession(or should I say depression) will be following by open conflict. Some areas will probably have a civil war like Egypt(between the generals currently in power and the "people" who may have someone else pulling there strings) and others who will stabilize themselves by warring with a neighbor. Economic malaise in a country is usually followed by the people of that country becoming angry or desperate. Both can easily be taken advantage of by any demagogue with enough ability. At least that is my prediction, they could just as well do nothing until it passes(if it does for the country in question). It is nearly impossible to know what will really happen because each of these countries effects the other countries. To look at them completely individually seems like it would be foolhardy to say the least.