Tunisia: You're on Your Own, But You Can Do It
Khairi Abaza's piece about Tunisia in the New Republic--it's bothering me. I just don't know what to make of it:
... just like Iran in 1979, Tunisia now finds itself at a crossroads: Will it head down the path of democracy, or will there be a takeover by Islamists? In 1979, Europe and the United States missed an opportunity to stand with liberals at the time of the Shah’s overthrow, leaving them at the mercy of the Islamists. Now, the West must avoid repeating this mistake in Tunisia by clearly identifying with the liberals, and their demands for democracy and better governance.
The worst thing the West could do would be to support a cosmetic change in which another authoritarian figure replaces Ben Ali and makes only small concessions to ease popular discontent—granting the people some new liberties, while maintaining the authoritarian structures of the state. Such a move would signal to the Tunisian people that the West is not actually interested in promoting democracy in Tunisia, and would likely set the stage for the Islamists and their international sponsors to emerge as the strongest opposition. In the end, Tunisia would likely fall to the Islamists, another form of authoritarianism.
I know that sounds just like what I've been saying: Stand with the Tunisian people, for the love of God, before someone else does.
But then I think about the suppressed premise. Are the Tunisian people really so mindless and childlike that absent a sign that the West is interested in promoting democracy in Tunisia, they'll just lose their enthusiasm for democracy and hand their country to the Islamists? If so, I doubt democracy has much of a chance in the first place.
Although this whole situation fills me with doubt, I'm reasonably sure that looking at all of this as a conflict between Islamism and democracy isn't useful. Authoritarianism is the fatal temptation in this region; Islamism is just one manifestation of it. The authoritarian reflex--it goes so deep. It's so hardwired. It's so hard to overcome. It's not just a conflict within the society, it's a conflict within each person, each family, every social structure. The belief that the West is a powerful Daddy who can protect the liberals and save them from the Islamists just by "showing their support?" That very belief is a symptom of it.
I'm a Westerner. I support you, Tunisian liberals, with all my heart. But I'm not all that powerful, and last I checked you were adults and you had free will, just like me. So I reckon the rest is up to you.
I really wouldn't wait for my government to help you more than I just did. It's overextended, broke and distracted. Honestly, I suspect all it wants is to not have a hassle from you. If you want advice about how to have a liberal democracy, there are a lot of good books about how to do it. Checks and balances seem to be key. Don't sit around waiting for signs of support from the West--we're not magical and we're not your parents. If you want democracy badly enough, you won't need our help or our approval. Just don't let your own government step on you. Don't let anyone.
It's pretty clear you've already got a sense of how that works.
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Jul '10
Re: Tunisia: You're on Your Own, But You Can Do It
Some of the sentences in the Guardian article by Al Jazeera columnist Soumaya Ghannoushi cause me to worry about the possible developments in Tunisia.
She writes "The people have toppled a dictator. Now they have to forge a coalition of socialists, Islamists and liberals for real change," later continuing by pitting the autocrat - in her words, a good student of the IMF, a guarantor of "stability" and a brave warrior against "Islamic fundamentalism", with Tunisia as his shining example of "modernisation" and success - against "a crushed people," implying "the coalition of socialists, Islamists and liberals." She then sums it up "The alternative strategy – and the task now facing the Tunisian people – is to build a wide coalition of the forces... the alliance being forged between the Communist Workers' Party, led by Hamma al-Hammami, the charismatic Moncef al-Marzouqi's Congress Party for the Republic, and Ennahda, led by my father Rachid Ghannouchi, along with trade unionists, and civil society activists."
In the proposed coalition, we see the block of Communists-trade unions-civil acitivists, Islamists and al_Marzouqi, the secular leftist. Will that be representative of the Tunisian people as a whole or just a power shift?
Re: Tunisia: You're on Your Own, But You Can Do It
I don't know, Okan. I do know that if I were a Tunisian liberal, I'd look at that proposed coalition and worry. And my advice to Tunisian liberals--not that they're asking--is not to waste a minute waiting for the West's moral support. They need to buy the West's very best media and campaign strategists, just like the AKP has here, and learn how to run a campaign and win elections. And then they need to figure out how to govern--and as Christy Quirk rightly noted, that's not easy. If they waste their energy and resources on infighting and anger that the West isn't helping--like the opposition does here--they'll probably end up in the same place.
Re: Tunisia: You're on Your Own, But You Can Do It
Claire, have a look at this analysis from the Jerusalem Post. As I said in the comments section of my earlier Tunisia post, we should be cautious about assuming that all Arab populations are equally willing to allow a power vacuum to be filled by Islamism. Here's an encouraging snippet from that piece:
Since the voiding in 1991 of the Algerian election that would have brought Islamists to power, about 200,000 Algerians have died in the ensuing civil war. In the wake of such bloodshed, I expect the Algerian people would be less likely than other Arab populations to tumble blithely into an Islamist death-grip. It's a threat that should by no means be minimized, but it's hardly a foregone conclusion across the Arab world.
Jul '10
Re: Tunisia: You're on Your Own, But You Can Do It
If it is not handled right and bravely, a situation similar to Turkey may be on the way, with only the left and the Islamists available to vote for... the Islamists (statists - outright communist-like autocracy in the case of Sharia Islamists, state (crony) capitalism in the case of moderate-looking Islamists - by nature) taking the place of "the middle right". That is a serious concern because where there is no "middle right," there usually is no "middle left," and people get stuck between two autocratic extremes.
Jun '10
Re: Tunisia: You're on Your Own, But You Can Do It
Claire Berlinski, Ed.:
I really wouldn't wait for my government to help you more than I just did. It's overextended, broke and distracted.
Quite true. But it costs the president nothing to make a clear statement that the United States stands for liberty, democracy, and human rights wherever an oppressed people demand them from a tyrannical government. Of course, Mr. Obama ignored the chance once already in the case of Iran's "Green" uprising. I can see in my mind's eye a picture Mr. Obama ringing up our State Department asking if anyone there speaks "Tunisian." Color my confidence low.
Jul '10
Re: Tunisia: You're on Your Own, But You Can Do It
True. As would be in Western-influenced nations like Algeria, Morrocco and my own, Turkey, it is certainly not a foregone conclusion in Tunisia. Having said that, the Guardian may have exposed the position of the Western left on the issue with Soumaya Ghannoushi's article. I just cannot help but remember the role the left played during the Iranian revolution and how it turned out.
Nov '10
Re: Tunisia: You're on Your Own, But You Can Do It
Nov '10
Re: Tunisia: You're on Your Own, But You Can Do It
I wonder...It is hard to see how genuine belief in Islam is compatible with democracy. Islam is not merely a religion; it is, and was from the very beginning, a state. Democracy relegates religion to the private sector of peoples' lives, and that is clearly in conflict with Islamic practice and law. No Islamic society has ever managed to maintain democracy over long periods; the closest to this goal is Turkey, which has only managed to be democratic some of the time.
Jul '10
Re: Tunisia: You're on Your Own, But You Can Do It
True in general. But Turkey's problems with regard to democracy have not been due to Islamic issues. They are cronyism and corruption. On the other hand, if you read the Quran (an un-Islamist version of it, which may be difficult to find the West as the Saudi money appears to have propagated the version it likes), Islam is not a state, but instead rules that guide the individuals. Muhammed established a state and a rule of law to overcome tribalism (a civilized form of government in those days), which has managed to exist to date. That state, moreover, was not governed by Sharia, which was not invented until the 1700's.
Jan '11
Re: Tunisia: You're on Your Own, But You Can Do It
We should be experienced at this, by now. This isn’t the first country which looks to throw off a repressive regime, and then looks to us for help. You’d have thought we’d have this mastered by now.
I’d love to say to the people, “If you’re looking to the United States to build your nation, you’re looking in the wrong place. Only you can build your nation. We’ve discovered that imposing freedom from the outside is a contradiction that never survives.
On the other hand, when people discover that they want freedom on their own (as Iraq did when they realized that al-Qaeda’s butchery was the alternative) then our friendship pays off. We know from experience that if people want freedom, they gain it for themselves. We can’t give you a country if you don’t have it, but once you have it, friendship with the free world is far better than allying with tyrants and terrorists.”
Edited on Jan 18, 2011 at 6:43amNov '10
Re: Tunisia: You're on Your Own, But You Can Do It
I have read the Qur'an, Okan, not in translation, but in Arabic, and I cannot see any evidence for a separation between the state and religion. The "Render unto Caesar..." kind of quote is simply absent from it. Shari`a may not have been codified until the 1700s, but its precepts are far older, and go back the earliest period of Islam. Consider the extraordinary lengths the earliest Turkish Sultans went to to try to legitimize their violations of it, for example when they attacked other Muslims, And it is essentially impossible for devout Muslims to deny that a religious Islamic state is anything but legitimate when that is exactly what Muhammad founded, and when it was continued by his successors and those who followed. However, there is no history at all that would make a secular state legitimate to a Muslim. For example, the penalties for irtidad are clear, and existed in the very earliest times: who is going to enforce these but the state? Finally, if one wishes to explain the tendency for Islamic societies to be corrupt, the answer lies in that although Muhammad may have tried to overcome tribalism, he failed.
Jul '10
Re: Tunisia: You're on Your Own, But You Can Do It
Much of what has taken place in the Arab peninsula pertains to the local culture and how it perceives the Quran from its own position. There is nothing that makes it a condition for nations who will perceive it differently, for which there is much evidence in Islamic history. Hence, the need to export the Arabic culture wrapped in their perception of Islam arises, but it is in everyone's best interest, to define this as Islamism and not Islam for the sake of humanity. Otherwise, it will become "Islam" for everyone and will fight to conquer the world. Humanity, and the West in particular, has a choice of picking the one it wants. Islamism plus its bonus, the Arab money, or Islam without the money. Islam is less political and thus, more pure in those places where the Arab money/support has not distorted it. Those places you seem to deem non-existent.
Nov '10
Re: Tunisia: You're on Your Own, But You Can Do It
~Paules
[I]t costs the president nothing to make a clear statement that the United States stands for liberty, democracy, and human rights wherever an oppressed people demand them from a tyrannical government.
If you are waiting for Obama to show any support for the people of Tunisia, you can forget it. You are talking about a man who (as he flew past Venezuela) gave a friendly "shout out" to Hugo Chavez. You are talking about a man who turned his back on Iran's Green Revolution, even in the face of heartbreaking videos showing young women bleeding to death in the streets. You are talking about a man who has convincingly demonstrated that he has no interest in supporting freedom, liberty and democracy even in his own country. There is no chance that Obama will support the Tunisian Revolution, especially if it shows signs of being a secular and democratic revolution.
Claire, I am as desperate as you are, but our President is a homoerotic, tyrant-loving Marxist idiot who secretly approves of Islamofascism. And that is the harsh truth.
Sep '10
Re: Tunisia: You're on Your Own, But You Can Do It
Tunisia thanks to Berlinski, Levy, Rahe and many other Ricochet posters is a country I am learning much about. At times the picture there seems bleak and then I read that Baby Doc has returned to Hattie and I think perhaps it is not so bleak after all. Don’t the people in these countries realized that if they simply toned down the political rhetoric all would be well? Even with all the nonsense presented in the media I count myself fortunate to be and American.
Nov '10
Re: Tunisia: You're on Your Own, But You Can Do It
Okan Altiparmak
Islamism plus its bonus, the Arab money, or Islam without the money. Islam is less political and thus, more pure in those places where the Arab money/support has not distorted it. Those places you seem to deem non-existent. · Jan 18 at 7:18am
I don't deem them non-existent, Okan: Turkey is the example that always comes to mind. But I am skeptical of their permanence. My own feeling is that a polity can only have democracy by rejecting Islam. To some degree this is what Turkey did, and the result was a more democratic state, though with hiccups. But it seems to me that those days may be ending even for Turkey, as the Erdoğan government shows its true colors more and more.
May '10
Re: Tunisia: You're on Your Own, But You Can Do It
Claire Berlinski, Ed.:
Don't sit around waiting for signs of support from the West--we're not magical and we're not your parents. If you want democracy badly enough, you won't need our help or our approval. Just don't let your own government step on you. Don't let anyone.
Well said, Claire.
But here's my concern. Many in Western media have suggested that this revolution worries many governments of the region for its potential to inspire similar resistance elsewhere. If that's so, then shouldn't we expect the Sauds and others to influence events in Tunisia through the money they're always so happy to spend on propoganda?
Many of the interests of Tunisia's various factions can probably be purchased: food, security from crime, weapons, etc. If the Tunisians had established a new government within days, this would have been less of a danger. But with this much time available, the Arabs could buy off more than one faction, correct?
This, by the way, is why our government might want to do more than simply watch and comment.
Re: Tunisia: You're on Your Own, But You Can Do It
Aaron Miller
Well said, Claire.
But here's my concern. Many in Western media have suggested that this revolution worries many governments of the region for its potential to inspire similar resistance elsewhere. If that's so, then shouldn't we expect the Sauds and others to influence events in Tunisia through the money they're always so happy to spend on propoganda?
This, by the way, is why our government might want to do more than simply watch and comment. · Jan 18 at 9:56am
Oh, I agree. But if the Tunisians seriously think Americans will take steps to counter Saudi propaganda in their country, they're deluded. We don't even counter it in our own. No, I'd say Tunisian liberals should expect to be on their own and plan accordingly. Turkish liberals too, for that matter.
Oct '10
Re: Tunisia: You're on Your Own, But You Can Do It
Call me an isolationist, but I believe in the wisdom of the founding fathers, whose foreign policy was to recognize any existing government. To me this offers incentive for democratic movements and makes them less vulnerable to fickleness on the part of the Executive (e.g., Iraq post Gulf War I).
Jul '10
Re: Tunisia: You're on Your Own, But You Can Do It
Anthony Aristar
Okan Altiparmak
Islamism plus its bonus, the Arab money, or Islam without the money. Islam is less political and thus, more pure in those places where the Arab money/support has not distorted it. Those places you seem to deem non-existent. · Jan 18 at 7:18am
My own feeling is that a polity can only have democracy by rejecting Islam. To some degree this is what Turkey did, and the result was a more democratic state, though with hiccups. But it seems to me that those days may be ending even for Turkey, as the Erdoğan government shows its true colors more and more. · Jan 18 at 8:55am
Not Islam. Islamism. Erdogan is an Islamist, not just a Muslim. All other Turkish PM's - with the exception of a short term by Erbakan - were only Muslims. Westerners get the two confused and never ask the Turks, who probably know the difference better than most other nations. And I believe the confusion at the political and media level comes from the influence of Arab money. Again no one will heed me here. It's nothing new.
Nov '10
Re: Tunisia: You're on Your Own, But You Can Do It
Okan Altiparmak
Anthony Aristar
Okan Altiparmak
Islamism plus its bonus, the Arab money, or Islam without the money. Islam is less political and thus, more pure in those places where the Arab money/support has not distorted it.
My own feeling is that a polity can only have democracy by rejecting Islam. To some degree this is what Turkey did, and the result was a more democratic state, though with hiccups. But it seems to me that those days may be ending even for Turkey, as the Erdoğan government shows its true colors more and more.
Not Islam. Islamism. Erdogan is an Islamist, not just a Muslim...Westerners get the two confused and never ask the Turks, who probably know the difference better than most other nations. And I believe the confusion at the political and media level comes from the influence of Arab money. Again no one will heed me here. It's nothing new.
Okan, what is your reaction to this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fgsrnmzxEUY
Is it fair? Is it accurate?
Right now, a lot of people seem to be chasing their own tails, trying to nail down the distinction between "Islam" and "Islamism."