Troy Senik, Call Your Office, or, Hey, This Newt Thing's Getting Serious
From Public Policy Polling:
Gingrich takes the lead
Newt Gingrich has taken the lead in PPP's national polling. He's at 28% to 25% for Herman Cain and 18% for Mitt Romney. The rest of the Republican field is increasingly looking like a bunch of also rans: Rick Perry is at 6%, Michele Bachmann and Ron Paul at 5%, Jon Huntsman at 3%, and Gary Johnson and Rick Santorum each at 1%.
In re which, a few questions for Ricochet's own Troy Senik:
1) When a couple of weeks ago you began predicting a Gingrich boomlet, did you expect this? That Newt might actually take the lead?
2) You know the man well. Do you find that you yourself are now moved to support him?
3) I'm starting to suppose that Gingrich could actually win the nomination. My reasoning, basically, is that there's nothing but upside for Gingrich because everybody already knows all the downsides. He divorced two previous wives in ways that nearly everyone agrees proved ugly--and about which he himself now expresses remorse. Either voters forgive him or they don't, but there aren't going to be any surprises there. His personality? Mercurial, prickly, often vain, hard on staff. But again, everybody already knows that about Gingrich. Either voters will decide that his qualities as a leader make it worth putting up with his deficiencies as a human being--and all of us can name some prickly, unpleasant leaders we're nevertheless happy God put on earth, including, for example, George S. Patton--or they won't. But nobody's going to be surprised.
Unlike Rick Perry and Herman Cain, if Newt Gingrich rises, he's unlikely to fall.
Does that reasoning strike you as sound, Troy?
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Comments:
Jun '10
Re: Troy Senik, Call Your Office, or, Hey, This Newt Thing's Getting Serious
Frozen Chosen
I know marrying young is practiced in our day sometimes but it seems creepy. If my wife dies I am not marrying a 25 yr old - it would be creepy (I'm 49).
But, why oh why: creepy. There is simply nothing creepy about it.
Jun '10
Re: Troy Senik, Call Your Office, or, Hey, This Newt Thing's Getting Serious
The King Prawn
Peter Robinson
You and me both, baby. · Nov 14 at 4:46pm
This may be the real heart of the surge for Newt. Cain and Perry cause almost as many /facepalms and /headdesks as Newt causes standing ovations during debates. On the plus side of things, this demonstrates our absolutely polar opposite position from the left. We care deeply about the message even if we must suffer an imperfect messenger. · Nov 14 at 4:51pm
Perfect, Prawn. So true. That is the difference, isn't it?
May '11
Re: Troy Senik, Call Your Office, or, Hey, This Newt Thing's Getting Serious
I think Gingrich has a chance to win the nomination although I will not be voting for him in the SC primary. I think he has little chance of beating Obama in the general election because his pugilistic, condescending approach to everything will annoy all but the most dedicated conservatives.
Jan '11
Re: Troy Senik, Call Your Office, or, Hey, This Newt Thing's Getting Serious
Frozen Chosen: Does anyone else find it a bit creepy that Newt's current wife is young enough to be his daughter (23 yrs younger)?
As CNN would phrase it - am I just hopelessly old-fashioned, naive or ignorant? · Nov 14 at 4:01pm
Edited on Nov 14 at 04:10 pm
Ah, would you mind sharing with us what you find "creepy" about the age difference in Newt's marriage? Just what is your remark meant to infer? As for the CNN phrase, I've read a number of your posts in support of Romney, and my impression is that you're neither old fashioned or naive.
I think folks should favor their choice of candidate however they will, but leave the ad hominem stuff about competitors to CNN; it does them no credit, nor the candidate they support.
Aug '10
Re: Troy Senik, Call Your Office, or, Hey, This Newt Thing's Getting Serious
I am somewhat astonished to find that Newt is now my choice. There was the philandering thing; the loveseat with Nancy Pelosi - I just didn't want to like him.
But, debate after debate, he's the only candidate who doesn't make me cringe every time he speaks - the only one who has me standing up and yelling, "Yesss!"
A Republican president faces a Herculean task in getting Congress to do what is absolutely necessary to save this country. Only Newt has the experience in Congressional leadership that might be equal to the challenge.
Dec '10
Re: Troy Senik, Call Your Office, or, Hey, This Newt Thing's Getting Serious
It's hard to imagine which would be the most condescending of the two.
Dec '10
Re: Troy Senik, Call Your Office, or, Hey, This Newt Thing's Getting Serious
PPP polling is always a joke and we should remember that, in our local elections, as they always have a mission.
Separately, Newt will be fine, just as would be Romney, if we hew to Friedman's directive about creating an environment where an imperfect politician is swayed by the cohesive nature of his/her constituents. Neither Romney, nor Gingrich, could be trusted as President, left to their own impulses. The other candidates, mostly, have good impulses, but are poorly prepared.
Jun '10
Re: Troy Senik, Call Your Office, or, Hey, This Newt Thing's Getting Serious
The King Prawn
It's hard to imagine which would be the most condescending of the two. · Nov 14 at 5:09pm
You beat me to it.
Mar '11
Re: Troy Senik, Call Your Office, or, Hey, This Newt Thing's Getting Serious
The most interesting thing I see in this isn't that Newt is number one, but that Romney is number three and dropping.
Jun '10
Re: Troy Senik, Call Your Office, or, Hey, This Newt Thing's Getting Serious
CJRun: PPP polling is always a joke and we should remember that, in our local elections, as they always have a mission.
Separately, Newt will be fine, just as would be Romney, if we hew to Friedman's directive about creating an environment where an imperfect politician is swayed by the cohesive nature of his/her constituents. Neither Romney, nor Gingrich, could be trusted as President, left to their own impulses. The other candidates, mostly, have good impulses, but are poorly prepared. · Nov 14 at 5:14pm
I'm very sick of hearing about Newt's untrustworthiness and his political "impulses." Where do you get this stuff -- other than what the media propagates? Why does the media's dislike and fear of Newt so control this narrative in a "center-right" blog?
Newt's impulses and intuition have been right more often than anyone else up on that stage.
May '11
Re: Troy Senik, Call Your Office, or, Hey, This Newt Thing's Getting Serious
As to Larry question about Newt's marriage being creepy, the age diference doesn't creep me out but I find the thought of Calista as First Lady rather creepy based on very subjective, limited and probably foolish grounds. She looks creepy to me, in her looks and manerisms. I think many women will think of her as a goldigger. That shouldn't matter but people like the illusion of traditional, gracious First Lady.
Re: Troy Senik, Call Your Office, or, Hey, This Newt Thing's Getting Serious
As long as she doesn't tie her pride in her country to her husband's electoral fortune, it will be an improvement.
Mar '11
Re: Troy Senik, Call Your Office, or, Hey, This Newt Thing's Getting Serious
I think it is insane to nominate someone with no political record to President of the U.S., that is why I never felt at ease with Cain and with Bachmann. I vote based on someone’s record, not what they say.
That is why I like Newt, you know what you are getting, a narcissist, who is really smart, that pushes people around, whose also a womanizer. These traits are actually a lot more of a problem as the Speaker, than as president. The narcissist /pushiness/wonkishness has a significantly more benefits to an executive. Don’t get me wrong the Narcissist and womanizing are major moral failing.
I think Newt being another Nixon is a pretty close paralle. However, I would vote for Nixon if he was running against Wilson/Carter. Obama has gone pass Carter and is pretty close to Wilson’s infamy as far as I am concerned.
Actions speak louder than words, especially with politicians. Which is why I would never in any case vote for Rommey/Huntsman, but not be to concerned when voting for Perry/Newt/Santorum, Cain would be a Roulette wheel I would only spin against Obama.
Jun '10
Re: Troy Senik, Call Your Office, or, Hey, This Newt Thing's Getting Serious
Dave Carter
As long as she doesn't tie her pride in her country to her husband's electoral fortune, it will be an improvement. · Nov 14 at 5:28pm
Yes, we are so easy to please when you have blatant anti-Americanism to compare to.
Dec '10
Re: Troy Senik, Call Your Office, or, Hey, This Newt Thing's Getting Serious
Which, along with the frequent unbidden logouts, are the only real irritations with this AWESOME forum! Please, please, please, fix them!
Dec '10
Re: Troy Senik, Call Your Office, or, Hey, This Newt Thing's Getting Serious
paging @RobLong
Aug '10
Re: Troy Senik, Call Your Office, or, Hey, This Newt Thing's Getting Serious
Larry Koler
Frozen Chosen
I know marrying young is practiced in our day sometimes but it seems creepy. If my wife dies I am not marrying a 25 yr old - it would be creepy (I'm 49).
...There is simply nothing creepy about it.
Gotta agree. I married a somewhat older dude. Unlike guys my own age, he grew up still learning how to behave! (Not that all guys my own age are boors, but nice guys in my generation are rare, in my experience.)
When you think about human fertility, spring-autumn pairings are rather natural, actually.
May '10
Re: Troy Senik, Call Your Office, or, Hey, This Newt Thing's Getting Serious
First Principle: ABO
Second Principle: After generations of neglect, the understanding of WHY this country was founded on the principles it was is totally missing in large swaths of our citizenry. If we are to win the war, and not just the 2012 electoral battle, we need a leader who can persuasively articulate the reasons why the conservative agenda is vital to our personal, as well as national, interests. It appears to me that there simply is no one else in the same league as Professor Gingrich. As Reagan's principled but sunny optimism was the antidote to the depressing morass that accumulated during Carter's years, so, I believe, Gingrich's principled philosophical conservatism is the antidote to the relativistic moral and political morass that has accumulated under Obama. Once again we need a man of vision and ideas with the skill to effectively communicate them. For good or ill, there is only one man who fits the bill.
Dec '10
Re: Troy Senik, Call Your Office, or, Hey, This Newt Thing's Getting Serious
The King Prawn
Peter Robinson
You and me both, baby. · Nov 14 at 4:46pm
This may be the real heart of the surge for Newt. Cain and Perry cause almost as many /facepalms and /headdesks as Newt causes standing ovations during debates. On the plus side of things, this demonstrates our absolutely polar opposite position from the left. We care deeply about the message even if we must suffer an imperfect messenger. · Nov 14 at 4:51pm
This is where I would settle. For all Newt's imperfections, I trust him, to come down on at a far more conservative point than Mitt.
While the MSM is currently beating down Mormons collectively with all other foolish religious folks, when they turn their focus directly on Mitt, we will see the extent of liberal tolerance for the unfamiliar. First and foremost will be the charge that Mormons would not ordain Blacks into the priesthood(akin to deacons or elders) until 1978.
Dec '10
Re: Troy Senik, Call Your Office, or, Hey, This Newt Thing's Getting Serious
Midget Faded Rattlesnake
Larry Koler
Frozen Chosen
I know marrying young is practiced in our day sometimes but it seems creepy. If my wife dies I am not marrying a 25 yr old - it would be creepy (I'm 49).
...There is simply nothing creepy about it.
Gotta agree. I married a somewhat older dude. Unlike guys my own age, he grew up still learning how to behave! (Not that all guys my own age are boors, but nice guys in my generation are rare, in my experience.)
When you think about human fertility, spring-autumn pairings are rather natural, actually. · Nov 14 at 6:28pm
I rather agree. Their are few institutions that are raising up good men these days. If you were born in the last 3 decades and you didn't hit the good dad lottery, you may be in for a bumpy ride. Except for those marrying without the intention of having children, which I believe will become more common, I agree that these matches will become more common. I also think the weak economy will exacerbating this fact, causing even good men to put off marriage until they can support a family.