Troy Senik, Call Your Office, or, Hey, This Newt Thing's Getting Serious
From Public Policy Polling:
Gingrich takes the lead
Newt Gingrich has taken the lead in PPP's national polling. He's at 28% to 25% for Herman Cain and 18% for Mitt Romney. The rest of the Republican field is increasingly looking like a bunch of also rans: Rick Perry is at 6%, Michele Bachmann and Ron Paul at 5%, Jon Huntsman at 3%, and Gary Johnson and Rick Santorum each at 1%.
In re which, a few questions for Ricochet's own Troy Senik:
1) When a couple of weeks ago you began predicting a Gingrich boomlet, did you expect this? That Newt might actually take the lead?
2) You know the man well. Do you find that you yourself are now moved to support him?
3) I'm starting to suppose that Gingrich could actually win the nomination. My reasoning, basically, is that there's nothing but upside for Gingrich because everybody already knows all the downsides. He divorced two previous wives in ways that nearly everyone agrees proved ugly--and about which he himself now expresses remorse. Either voters forgive him or they don't, but there aren't going to be any surprises there. His personality? Mercurial, prickly, often vain, hard on staff. But again, everybody already knows that about Gingrich. Either voters will decide that his qualities as a leader make it worth putting up with his deficiencies as a human being--and all of us can name some prickly, unpleasant leaders we're nevertheless happy God put on earth, including, for example, George S. Patton--or they won't. But nobody's going to be surprised.
Unlike Rick Perry and Herman Cain, if Newt Gingrich rises, he's unlikely to fall.
Does that reasoning strike you as sound, Troy?
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Comments:
Mar '11
Re: Troy Senik, Call Your Office, or, Hey, This Newt Thing's Getting Serious
What I find interesting about this newest poll among others is not Newt's rise, once again disaffection with current contenders manifesting itself with let us try out the new flavor of the month, but Cain's relative stability. With the Perry and Bachmann boomlets they faded rather quickly to single digits when events turned poorly for them however with Cain voters appear to be more willing to give him a chance. His relative strength in the face of his difficulties makes me believe that pundits have been far too quick to write his candidacy off.
Dec '10
Re: Troy Senik, Call Your Office, or, Hey, This Newt Thing's Getting Serious
We need to coalesce around someone soon. How well can we compete if we nominate the guy who got 33.4% of the vote?
Dec '10
Re: Troy Senik, Call Your Office, or, Hey, This Newt Thing's Getting Serious
Peter Robinson
His personality? Mercurial, prickly, often vain, hard on staff. But again, everybody already knows that about Gingrich. Either voters will decide that his qualities as a leader make it worth putting up with his deficiencies as a human being--and all of us can name some prickly, unpleasant leaders we're nevertheless happy God put on earth, including, for example, George S. Patton--or they won't. But nobody's going to be surprised.
Unlike Rick Perry and Herman Cain, if Newt Gingrich rises, he's unlikely to fall.
There's a distinction between the people who've been paying attention to Newt Gingrich since the early 1990s and those who only know his name and some vague facts about his bio. As Gingrich rises, he will expose his personality to a much wider audience of people who either are now old enough to take a first adult look at him or are now compelled to pay attention to him because of his rising standing in the polls.
It's entirely possible that as Gingrich rises, he will irritate voters and end up falling. It's also possible that voters will like him and fuel his continued rise.
Re: Troy Senik, Call Your Office, or, Hey, This Newt Thing's Getting Serious
What a strange world American politics is! One never knows what is going to happen. There is in all of the ups and downs one thing that does not change. Mitt Romney's appeal is limited. That was the foundation for the rise of Michele Bachmann, Rick Perry, and Herman Cain. It is also the foundation for Newt Gingrich's rise. But his rise could be a serious matter. Whatever he may be, he is not a light weight. I just wish that he was not so erratic.
Aug '10
Re: Troy Senik, Call Your Office, or, Hey, This Newt Thing's Getting Serious
In my estimation Gingrich has no shot in the general election if nominated. Female voters will avoid him in droves and his lecturing, wonkish style will turn off independents.
It's simply his turn to be the non-Romney but he will fade like the others. Wake me when the voting starts...
Jun '10
Re: Troy Senik, Call Your Office, or, Hey, This Newt Thing's Getting Serious
Great point -- and that's the way that I feel, too. I know the presidential standard for proven womenizing with Clinton is so low that Cain's unproven issues are easy to let me give him a lot of time to sort this out.
I feel even stronger about this next statement with Newt -- but, really, Cain has a lot of money in the bank with me. He's so refreshing, candid and just plain loveable that I'm willing to give him overdraft protection, too.
Jun '10
Re: Troy Senik, Call Your Office, or, Hey, This Newt Thing's Getting Serious
Newt was received into the Catholic Church in March of 2009. Having gone through the same thing myself (two years later,) I'd say that's a pretty significant moral reset button. From his perspective (and mine) it's a new start. If he did it right, he's a new man.
Dec '10
Re: Troy Senik, Call Your Office, or, Hey, This Newt Thing's Getting Serious
Is there any rational reason why Newt may be different from all the others? Is it the strange combination of already knowing his faults and being dazzled by his debate performance the key difference? Others have had the exact opposite set of circumstances (read Cain's faults and Perry's debates.)
May '11
Re: Troy Senik, Call Your Office, or, Hey, This Newt Thing's Getting Serious
Which aphorism is more appropriate in comparing Romney to the rest of the field:
"In the future, everyone will have 15 minutes of fame."
"If you sit by the river long enough, you will see the bodies of all your enemies float by, one by one."
Jun '10
Re: Troy Senik, Call Your Office, or, Hey, This Newt Thing's Getting Serious
Frozen Chosen: In my estimation Gingrich has no shot in the general election if nominated. Female voters will avoid him in droves and his lecturing, wonkish style will turn off independents.
It's simply his turn to be the non-Romney but he will fade like the others. Wake me when the voting starts... · Nov 14 at 3:03pm
Try putting Cain in the VP slot -- what does that do to your calculations?
Oct '11
Re: Troy Senik, Call Your Office, or, Hey, This Newt Thing's Getting Serious
He has some baggage but he is also has tons of Washington experience but he is not totally of Washington and has managed to reject and deny many of its premises and those of the center left establishment there. A lot of this boomlet has to be explainable as part of a big conservative media drum beat following the Cain allegations whether or not they are true. Everyone has been talking about him and now all of the sudden his poll numbers are better plus he did well in a couple of recent debates apparently (I can't stand to watch them because of the universally ridiculous questioners). You need to be arrogant and kind of a jerk at times to not get caught up going with the flow which can be a problem for your "I'd have a beer with him republicans" when they get to Washington. One must be able to say we are going to talk about what I want to talk about and see things they way I see them and accept my premises. I may have just talked myself into jumping about the newt band wagon.
Mar '11
Re: Troy Senik, Call Your Office, or, Hey, This Newt Thing's Getting Serious
Time will tell but PPP isn't, from my observation, the most reliable source for polling data. I think it stands for Perfectly Pathetic Polling but I'm not sure. Gingrich is the recipient of the anti-Romney vote now that all the others have disqualified themselves. Plus, he's done very well in the debates and has an impressive breadth of knowledge and experience. He could turn out to be Romney's toughest possible opponent. One thing I'm sure of, whoever wins in the end will be strengthened as they face Obama. I think it is in the interest of the Republican party to have a vigorous contest.
Apr '11
Re: Troy Senik, Call Your Office, or, Hey, This Newt Thing's Getting Serious
Newt is the clear winner of most or all of the debates so far as he actually has ideas and has stayed away from attacking the other candidates. Whether that's enough remains to be seen, but Perry and Cain are appearing weaker as time goes by.
Nov '10
Re: Troy Senik, Call Your Office, or, Hey, This Newt Thing's Getting Serious
I commend to everyone's perusal the article to which Steven Hayward links in Hayward's amusing if extremely disconcerting blog post today on Gingrich.
Apr '11
Re: Troy Senik, Call Your Office, or, Hey, This Newt Thing's Getting Serious
Perhaps Gingrich has mellowed out over the years. I think we have to give him at least a chance to explain himself and make us all feel better about his personal life. I saw him on a "Special Report Online" clip and he seemed to be kind of jolly and self assured but also able to give serious answers on a variety of issues. These are qualities that I think play well in general. I can't speak for the women folk out there, but can being a jerk, preclude you from at least earning a chance at respect and redemption.
I must admit he is growing on me, if for no other reason than he at least seems serious and straightforward.
Can we say the Race has boiled down to 3 people?
Herman Cain the Tea Party Train
Mitt Romney the Establishment Money
and last but not least...
Newet "Our Last Ditch" Gingrich.
May '10
Re: Troy Senik, Call Your Office, or, Hey, This Newt Thing's Getting Serious
I want Romney to make Newt to be the last Secretary of Education (who turns the lights out), or at the limit, Secretary of State or at the UN. But he's unelectable as President.
YOU'RE UNELECTABLE.
Apr '11
Re: Troy Senik, Call Your Office, or, Hey, This Newt Thing's Getting Serious
Hey! Everybody likes ABBA... even me, and I own pretty much all the RUSH, VAN HALEN, AC/DC, and PINK FLOYD albums ever made...I think we have moved far enough from the Disco v Rock divide of the late 70's to give ABBA their due...
Jan '11
Re: Troy Senik, Call Your Office, or, Hey, This Newt Thing's Getting Serious
I can believe that some. perhaps many, Christians will vote against Romney because, while a Christian, his denomination may be seen as "peculiar." On the other hand, many who won't vote for Romney on that basis, have no objection to Clinton's kind of Christianity. I have no dog in that fight, but trying to figure out why people vote as they do is one for the mystics. That's the known unknown (to borrow a phrase) in Gingrich's case. There's a lot of talk about each candidates weaknesses and strengths, but they seem to be always in flux - important one day, de-emphasized the next - depending on - what?
Gingrich appears to me to be the most mature, unflustered, and best informed candidate of the current contenders, Romney and Cain not withstanding. He appears to be ready for the job of POTUS. It's my impression, of course, and others are entitled to their own, but which candidate would be most likely to bring the inflated egos of the White House Press Corps (pronounced corpse) down to size in a press conference, and who among us wouldn't love to see that?
Aug '10
Re: Troy Senik, Call Your Office, or, Hey, This Newt Thing's Getting Serious
Larry Koler
Frozen Chosen: In my estimation Gingrich has no shot in the general election if nominated. Female voters will avoid him in droves and his lecturing, wonkish style will turn off independents.
It's simply his turn to be the non-Romney but he will fade like the others. Wake me when the voting starts... · Nov 14 at 3:03pm
Try putting Cain in the VP slot -- what does that do to your calculations? · Nov 14 at 3:09pm
As a VP, Newt still has the negatives without adding much to the ticket. Besides, the guy is too much a loose cannon to trust in your number 2 slot.
Oct '10
Re: Troy Senik, Call Your Office, or, Hey, This Newt Thing's Getting Serious
Gingrich has an impressive mind and remarkable debating capabilities. He certainly deserves the credit for the 1994 Republican success against Clinton, both B and H. But let us not forget that his inability to lead a governing majority created near chaos in the House and cost the GOP a lot.
He is, without a doubt, the quiz show star. But the shows tell us little about the candidates ability to lead. The world is over populated with highly intelligent people who cannot lead others to action. Wars are won by the aggressive generals, not the ones who are only smart.
So far, only Herman Cain has a track record as an unwavering conservative who has a leadership success history. And, as Roberto mentions above, Cain's following isn't eroding. Those of us who are committed to him have seen no reason so far to back away.
A bunch of phony sex allegations are simply another left wing Mau-Mau'ing of a black conservative.
A lack of ready responses to foreign policy issues are insufficient when you consider the disaster that the "O" admin is on that score.
And 999 is a healthy start on tax debate.
Go Cain.