Tonight's GOP Primary
Tonight’s GOP debate officially kicks off the 2012 primary season. I’m excited (even though this would be much more entertaining with Donald Trump) to watch the major themes of this electoral season begin to unfold. Here’s what I’ll be looking for tonight.
1) Iowa Versus New Hampshire: Candidates will need to choose what strength they strive to be defined by. Iowa will be widely determined by religious voters seeking a social conservative, while New Hampshire, a not-particularly religious state (pro-choice as well) with a libertarian bent, will focus primarily on fiscal issues. For a conservative, these aren’t necessarily mutually exclusive concepts. However, for a candidate in need of branding, they virtually are. Tonight, candidates will have to choose the camp with which they want to identify. It seems prominent social conservatives like Bachmann and Santorum have been trying to beef up their fiscal chops, while fiscal conservatives, like Pawlenty or Romney, have been trying to do the opposite. When push comes to shove, what will speak more voters: a fiscal or a moral deficit?
2) Romney Versus the Field: While every candidate is careful to emphasize that “there is no front-runner” or “the race is too early,” we all know Romney, with his name recognition, national organization, and personal fortune, has the mechanisms in place to validate his status as the favorite. Romney had his share of flubs last year when on the defensive, and it makes sense that candidates will try to profit off this opportunity. But by how much? Will constant Romney attacks validate his candidacy and give him undue camera time? The fact that this is being held on Romney’s “must-win” grounds is another important variable, especially noting a recent poll putting him up 32 points in New Hampshire.
3) Referendum or Reformation: Granted, every GOP primary will have its share of Obama bashing. No one wants to come off as the person dividing their party, and a shot at the President will be a frequent tool to unite disagreeable candidates. But, will GOP candidates want this to define the debate? I’m wary of the strategy marketing 2012 as a “referendum” on Obama. I feel that prescriptive, new, original ideas should be the focus of a campaign – a strategy that John Huntsman seems to be readily embracing. Of course, the Obama record is highly important. But, all in all, how effective will the “I’m not Obama” tactic be?
4) Libertarian Presence: Gary Johnson was not invited to the debate. But Ron Paul, in full force, will be there. His consistency and message, particularly in the Tea Party era, has solidified a niche for himself in the GOP. As fiscal issues will dominate the majority of the debate, Ron Paul is fighting on his ground. How much will candidates drift towards major libertarian issues (end FED, abolish DOE, etc.)? How will they respond to Paul’s criticisms and attacks? Will social conservatives fiercely fight a libertarian in New Hampshire? Ron Paul, emblematic of the libertarian wing of GOP voters, will be a built-in test to all candidates.
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May '10
Re: Tonight's GOP Primary
A fiscal deficit is a moral deficit.
Jul '10
Re: Tonight's GOP Primary
"When push comes to shove, what will speak more voters: a fiscal or a moral deficit?"
I'm sure you don't mean to come off that way, but to imply that people who don't place great emphasis upon social issues suffer from a "moral deficit" is an unfortunate turn of phrase.
Mar '11
Re: Tonight's GOP Primary
With my two favorites absent, I hope that Herman Cain and Michelle Bachmann do well.