To Those Who Demand A Tougher Stance Toward the Egyptian Mob
Here's the thing.
We just spent half a trillion dollars and over 2,000 American lives trying to clear Afghanistan and prevent it from serving as a safe haven for terrorists. And it's far from clear whether we will have succeeded for any meaningful length of time.
We actually invaded Iraq at a much higher cost in both blood and treasure, and while that country has a somewhat more stable government, it seems perfectly clear that this big, expensive lesson in American resolve and strength sunk in not one bit to the average anti-American Middle Easterner.
Now, thanks to the Arab spring and whatever part we played in that, we have unstable democracies sprouting up throughout the region, and if Benghazi is any example, each one of them offers a potential safe haven to terrorists.
So we can fault the president for not showing sufficient resolve and not being tough enough, but this is not the world of Ronald Reagan where tough talk and a big stick could cow the leaders of the Soviet Union. There is no peace through strength strategy that makes any sense for this threat. Because there is simply no amount of force for which we would ever have the stomach that could effectively cow this mob.
And let's be honest with ourselves. Even if the United States had stood behind Mubarak, his government would never have lasted for any meaningful length of time -- certainly not beyond his own death. The strong man era of Middle Eastern politics is imploding, with or without our blessing, so to fault the president for being responsible for that is foolish.
Our best hope is not to mentor these countries in democracy, charm them with our cultural sensitivity, or to frighten them with our military might, but to persuade them through capitalism. The only thing that will reduce the long term security risk emanating from this part of the world is a general improvement in their standard of living so that they actually have something to lose from inviting and encouraging zealous chaos. A middle class, Middle East will not harbor terrorists or condone suicide bombings for fear of discouraging Trader Joe's or IKEA from coming to town.
So I would like to hear someone speak of that reality in cogent tones.
Until then, for all our indignation over lines in airports, I fear that large American cities will increasingly have to resemble Tel Aviv.
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Comments:
Aug '10
Re: To Those Who Demand A Tougher Stance Toward the Egyptian Mob
ConservativeWanderer
No, I am saying we need more Germanys and Japans, both democracies, both strongly capitalist, both our allies. · 5 hours ago
Both pacifistic now due to the outcome of their last war.
May '10
Re: To Those Who Demand A Tougher Stance Toward the Egyptian Mob
Fred Cole: ... Exporting capitalism is the way to peace. If people have the choice of blowing each other up or trading with one another for mutual benefit, they'll choose the latter.
The solution for a lot of you is more violence. We've tried violence. We've tried violence for generations, centuries, millenia. It doesn't work.
We've tried the other thing too, freedom. It works a lot better than violence.
There are two ways for human beings to deal with one another: By choice or by force. The former is always superior to the latter.
An example, please, of an theologically, ideologically motivated group with a despising hatred of its enemies that today is living at peace with the world without an initial crushing by violence.. I don't know of one. Neither Russia nor China are examples because their ideology was not theocratic, so pragmatism is an acceptable option. But it is not for a theocrat.
I am pessimistic. I believe that, by nature, ceteris paribus, people will prefer force. "If, then, we give people complete freedom to choose, they will inevitably seek to dominate someone or something...: -- Jacques Ellul
May '10
Re: To Those Who Demand A Tougher Stance Toward the Egyptian Mob
Instugator
Trace Urdan
I mean to say that Iraq is a failure as a deterrent. I am granting that replicating Iraq across the Middle East could be effective. Just really expensive, and really unpopular. · 5 hours ago
Tell that to Qaddafi - as I recall he gave up his WMD program based on the invasion of Iraq after being caught red-handed. The problem is that the current administration repudiated that deterrent - first by decrying the invasion of Iraq and then by bombing Qaddaffi anyway - thereby telling then next guy (ahem Iran) that it doesn't matter if they give up their program. · 8 minutes ago
Yes it worked for the strong men -- they were scared. It doesn't seem to work for the mob.
May '10
Re: To Those Who Demand A Tougher Stance Toward the Egyptian Mob
Tom Lindholtz
An example, please, of an theologically, ideologically motivated group with a despising hatred of its enemies that today is living at peace with the world without an initial crushing by violence.. I don't know of one. Neither Russia nor China are examples because their ideology was not theocratic, so pragmatism is an acceptable option. But it is not for a theocrat.
I am pessimistic. I believe that, by nature, ceteris paribus, people will prefer force. "If, then, we give people complete freedom to choose, they will inevitably seek to dominate someone or something...: -- Jacques Ellul · 1 minute ago
I don't buy that. A belief system is a belief system. Communism involved no less faith than Islam. I hear what you are saying and respect the amount of time and thought you have given this issue, but I still can't accept the notion that these people are different from any other.
May '10
Re: To Those Who Demand A Tougher Stance Toward the Egyptian Mob
ConservativeWanderer
Red Feline
You must be an atheist, Trace, because it sounds as if you don't understand the power of religious belief. It was not materially miserable lives that motivated the rich Muslims who drove those planes into the Twin Towers. It was deep faith in Allah and Muhammad. It was belief in Paradise with its gardens through which run streams of running water, where, sitting in brocade robes and on brocade couches, eating fruits and drinking wine that won't intoxicate, the martyrs will be waited on by those virgins they have been promised.
Faith is belief in things not seen and not proven. It is unbelievably strong and hard to change. · 25 minutes ago
If memory serves, he said earlier that he's agnostic. · 1 hour ago
Ahem. Episcopal. But I'm guessing that to you guys that might amount to agnostic. (Just a joke... just a joke.)
Jun '12
Re: To Those Who Demand A Tougher Stance Toward the Egyptian Mob
Instugator
Trace Urdan
I mean to say that Iraq is a failure as a deterrent. I am granting that replicating Iraq across the Middle East could be effective. Just really expensive, and really unpopular. · 5 hours ago
Tell that to Qaddafi - as I recall he gave up his WMD program based on the invasion of Iraq after being caught red-handed. The problem is that the current administration repudiated that deterrent - first by decrying the invasion of Iraq and then by bombing Qaddaffi anyway - thereby telling then next guy (ahem Iran) that it doesn't matter if they give up their program. · 23 minutes ago
Qaddaffi was so unnerved by Bush's invasion of Iraq that he thought, "am I next?" and took steps to reduce the chances that he'd be invaded.
We need that kind of fear throughout the Mideast again.
Jun '12
Re: To Those Who Demand A Tougher Stance Toward the Egyptian Mob
Instugator
ConservativeWanderer
No, I am saying we need more Germanys and Japans, both democracies, both strongly capitalist, both our allies. · 5 hours ago
Both pacifistic now due to the outcome of their last war. · 20 minutes ago
Precisely.
No threat to American diplomats, armed forces, or civilians.
Just the way I like it.
Dec '10
Re: To Those Who Demand A Tougher Stance Toward the Egyptian Mob
Instugator
Trace Urdan
I mean to say that Iraq is a failure as a deterrent. I am granting that replicating Iraq across the Middle East could be effective. Just really expensive, and really unpopular. · 5 hours ago
Tell that to Qaddafi - as I recall he gave up his WMD program based on the invasion of Iraq after being caught red-handed. The problem is that the current administration repudiated that deterrent - first by decrying the invasion of Iraq and then by bombing Qaddaffi anyway - thereby telling then next guy (ahem Iran) that it doesn't matter if they give up their program. · 2 minutes ago
We should have left the old Drag Queen and his jet setting family in place. They were interested in maintaining their celebrity and extravagant lifestyle. I don't think jihad was anywhere on their dance cards. Jihad and Cannes just aren't compatible.
Anytime the French get itchy trigger fingers is a good time to unplug the phones. The philosopher, John Fogerty, best summarized Obama's folly in Libya as a Bad Moon Rising.
Edited on September 15, 2012 at 1:39amAug '10
Re: To Those Who Demand A Tougher Stance Toward the Egyptian Mob
Fred Cole:
The solution for a lot of you is more violence. We've tried violence. We've tried violence for generations, centuries, millenia. It doesn't work.
To quote from Heinlein's Starship Troopers:
Jun '12
Re: To Those Who Demand A Tougher Stance Toward the Egyptian Mob
Trace Urdan
Instugator
Trace Urdan
I mean to say that Iraq is a failure as a deterrent. I am granting that replicating Iraq across the Middle East could be effective. Just really expensive, and really unpopular. · 5 hours ago
Tell that to Qaddafi - as I recall he gave up his WMD program based on the invasion of Iraq after being caught red-handed. The problem is that the current administration repudiated that deterrent - first by decrying the invasion of Iraq and then by bombing Qaddaffi anyway - thereby telling then next guy (ahem Iran) that it doesn't matter if they give up their program. · 8 minutes ago
Yes it worked for the strong men -- they were scared. It doesn't seem to work for the mob. · 16 minutes ago
The reason it doesn't seem to be working now is because President O has laid down TR's Big Stick in favor of the bend-over-and-kiss-the-dictator's-tush method of foreign policy.
Aug '10
Re: To Those Who Demand A Tougher Stance Toward the Egyptian Mob
Fred Cole: A lot of you are remarkably blood thirsty. Raze Cairo? Cairo is a city of 17,000,000 people. Are you [expletive] kidding me?
No. We're a civilized people. We don't do that [expletive] any more.
If we were, not only would more than half (or more hopefully) rise in revolt against any American government that did such a thing, we would be worldwide pariahs.
No. Razing cities is not a thing anymore.
The whole point of entering the damndable Libya war to begin with was to keep Qaddafi from razing Benghazi.
Get a freaking grip, people. · 5 hours ago
To quote from Robert Heinlein's The Moon is a Harsh Mistress
Jun '12
Re: To Those Who Demand A Tougher Stance Toward the Egyptian Mob
Trace Urdan
Tom Lindholtz
An example, please, of an theologically, ideologically motivated group with a despising hatred of its enemies that today is living at peace with the world without an initial crushing by violence.. I don't know of one. Neither Russia nor China are examples because their ideology was not theocratic, so pragmatism is an acceptable option. But it is not for a theocrat.
I am pessimistic. I believe that, by nature, ceteris paribus, people will prefer force. "If, then, we give people complete freedom to choose, they will inevitably seek to dominate someone or something...: -- Jacques Ellul · 1 minute ago
I don't buy that. A belief system is a belief system. Communism involved no less faith than Islam. I hear what you are saying and respect the amount of time and thought you have given this issue, but I still can't accept the notion that these people are different from any other. · 16 minutes ago
Wrong.
The depths of a fervently held faith can cause people to strap bombs to their bodies or -- in an earlier era -- deliberately fly their planes into battleships.
You didn't see the Communists doing either of those.
Jun '12
Re: To Those Who Demand A Tougher Stance Toward the Egyptian Mob
Trace Urdan
ConservativeWanderer
Red Feline
You must be an atheist, Trace, because it sounds as if you don't understand the power of religious belief. It was not materially miserable lives that motivated the rich Muslims who drove those planes into the Twin Towers. It was deep faith in Allah and Muhammad. It was belief in Paradise with its gardens through which run streams of running water, where, sitting in brocade robes and on brocade couches, eating fruits and drinking wine that won't intoxicate, the martyrs will be waited on by those virgins they have been promised.
Faith is belief in things not seen and not proven. It is unbelievably strong and hard to change. · 25 minutes ago
If memory serves, he said earlier that he's agnostic. · 1 hour ago
Ahem. Episcopal. But I'm guessing that to you guys that might amount to agnostic. (Just a joke... just a joke.) · 15 minutes ago
My apologies for the error.
Jun '12
Re: To Those Who Demand A Tougher Stance Toward the Egyptian Mob
Instugator
Fred Cole:
The solution for a lot of you is more violence. We've tried violence. We've tried violence for generations, centuries, millenia. It doesn't work.
To quote from Heinlein's Starship Troopers:
3 minutes ago
Not to mention that if it wasn't for applied violence, we might still be British colonies, among other possible outcomes.
Jun '12
Re: To Those Who Demand A Tougher Stance Toward the Egyptian Mob
Instugator
Fred Cole: A lot of you are remarkably blood thirsty. Raze Cairo? Cairo is a city of 17,000,000 people. Are you [expletive] kidding me?
No. We're a civilized people. We don't do that [expletive] any more.
If we were, not only would more than half (or more hopefully) rise in revolt against any American government that did such a thing, we would be worldwide pariahs.
No. Razing cities is not a thing anymore.
The whole point of entering the damndable Libya war to begin with was to keep Qaddafi from razing Benghazi.
Get a freaking grip, people. · 5 hours ago
To quote from Robert Heinlein's The Moon is a Harsh Mistress
3 minutes ago
I must start rereading Heinlein. Wonder how many of his books are available for Kindle.
Aug '10
Re: To Those Who Demand A Tougher Stance Toward the Egyptian Mob
ConservativeWanderer
I must start rereading Heinlein. Wonder how many of his books are available for Kindle. · 2 minutes ago
The first place to look (in my humble recommendation) is Baen books (link is to their Heinlein offerings). They sell theirs in unencrypted format that will work on a kindle or a variety of other devices. I think their prices are the best.
Then go to Kindle store to find the rest.
Apr '12
Re: To Those Who Demand A Tougher Stance Toward the Egyptian Mob
Trace Urdan
Tom Lindholtz
Neither Russia nor China are examples because their ideology was not theocratic, so pragmatism is an acceptable option. But it is not for a theocrat.
Communism involved no less faith than Islam. ... I still can't accept the notion that these people are different from any other. · 13 minutes ago
Faith in Allah and His Apostle Muhammad, to a superstitious people, is totally different from belief in an ideological system created by the minds of men.
People will blow themselves up as human bombs in the name of Allah and His Prophet. It would seem obvious that Islam is different from Communism that sought to change the world through an economic system, Socialism.
Trace, have you read the Qur'an?
Jun '12
Re: To Those Who Demand A Tougher Stance Toward the Egyptian Mob
Instugator
ConservativeWanderer
I must start rereading Heinlein. Wonder how many of his books are available for Kindle. · 2 minutes ago
The first place to look (in my humble recommendation) is Baen books (link is to their Heinlein offerings). They sell theirs in unencrypted format that will work on a kindle or a variety of other devices. I think their prices are the best.
Then go to Kindle store to find the rest. · 0 minutes ago
I have a few friends with connections to Baen... maybe I'll hit them up for a deal. ;)
Apr '12
Re: To Those Who Demand A Tougher Stance Toward the Egyptian Mob
Trace Urdan
Ahem. Episcopal. But I'm guessing that to you guys that might amount to agnostic. (Just a joke... just a joke.) · 25 minutes ago
Episcopalians have a very loose idea of theology, from my point of view. But then I was brought up Church of Scotland, and everyone has a a very loose idea of theology to anyone from that background. We are firmly based in the Scriptures according to Paul, who was a Jew, so we are also firmly based in the Hebrew Bible. :-)
On the other hand, I am serious when I say that it seems you have a liberal approach to religion and other people. You want to think we are all alike. We are not all alike.
May '12
Re: To Those Who Demand A Tougher Stance Toward the Egyptian Mob
Oh swell, now I've got to be serious in the comments.
Look, there's plenty of commerce in most of the North African countries, Libya provides much of the oil to Europe, for instance, but Capitalism? As in publicly traded corporations? Ain't gonna happen in our lifetime.
The notion of unemployed, malcontent youths in Cairo, Tunis or Benghazi saying to themselves, Gee, maybe I could lose the Kalashnikov, get a job flipping halal burgers, save up some cash and buy a few shares of National Oil, then sit back and watch the dividends roll in, is so absurd, even I can't imagine it.
What I can imagine, though is taking out the leadership behind the pawn-like, rioting masses, who would then disperse so quickly, they'd be gone before the sand has settled. Sure, they'd still grouse in the cafés, and dream of rising up again to humiliate the West, but with chronically dead leaders, their rage would be vague and formless.
For a while. And I think that's about the best one could hope for.