To Those Who Demand A Tougher Stance Toward the Egyptian Mob
Here's the thing.
We just spent half a trillion dollars and over 2,000 American lives trying to clear Afghanistan and prevent it from serving as a safe haven for terrorists. And it's far from clear whether we will have succeeded for any meaningful length of time.
We actually invaded Iraq at a much higher cost in both blood and treasure, and while that country has a somewhat more stable government, it seems perfectly clear that this big, expensive lesson in American resolve and strength sunk in not one bit to the average anti-American Middle Easterner.
Now, thanks to the Arab spring and whatever part we played in that, we have unstable democracies sprouting up throughout the region, and if Benghazi is any example, each one of them offers a potential safe haven to terrorists.
So we can fault the president for not showing sufficient resolve and not being tough enough, but this is not the world of Ronald Reagan where tough talk and a big stick could cow the leaders of the Soviet Union. There is no peace through strength strategy that makes any sense for this threat. Because there is simply no amount of force for which we would ever have the stomach that could effectively cow this mob.
And let's be honest with ourselves. Even if the United States had stood behind Mubarak, his government would never have lasted for any meaningful length of time -- certainly not beyond his own death. The strong man era of Middle Eastern politics is imploding, with or without our blessing, so to fault the president for being responsible for that is foolish.
Our best hope is not to mentor these countries in democracy, charm them with our cultural sensitivity, or to frighten them with our military might, but to persuade them through capitalism. The only thing that will reduce the long term security risk emanating from this part of the world is a general improvement in their standard of living so that they actually have something to lose from inviting and encouraging zealous chaos. A middle class, Middle East will not harbor terrorists or condone suicide bombings for fear of discouraging Trader Joe's or IKEA from coming to town.
So I would like to hear someone speak of that reality in cogent tones.
Until then, for all our indignation over lines in airports, I fear that large American cities will increasingly have to resemble Tel Aviv.
- Comment (173)
- · Quote
- · UnfollowFollow (13)
Comments:
May '10
Re: To Those Who Demand A Tougher Stance Toward the Egyptian Mob
Well, gotta go. This has been interesting.
Jun '12
Re: To Those Who Demand A Tougher Stance Toward the Egyptian Mob
R. Craigen: And, sorry, what you're saying is essentially appeasement, dressed up in missionary platitudes. Our only hope right now is a very bad one -- that they are so buried in internecine rivalry they pose a relatively small existential threat to us (excluding Israel, of course) in the near term; they are more likely to blast each other back to the stone age than us.
But what an awful thing to put one's hope in; it makes me ill.
Far from Big Sticks no longer being effective, what we see is the demonstrable effect of supplanting big sticks with poorly conceived olive branches. · 1 minute ago
Thank you.
As I said before, Trace is saying, "Here's a cookie, please don't hurt us."
That's pretty much the Obama policy, and you can see how well it's worked.
May '10
Re: To Those Who Demand A Tougher Stance Toward the Egyptian Mob
ConservativeWanderer
Please don't ascribe Tom's statements to me. That's intellectually lazy and sloppy debating, and characteristic of the Obamacrats.
I will accept a sincere apology, or I'll not bother with this debate any further. · 10 minutes ago
You're right. I am sincerely sorry. I was trying to group arguments together for the sake of efficiency but forgetting that every commenter is also an individual. I was enjoying our conversation CW and did not mean to offend.
Nov '11
Re: To Those Who Demand A Tougher Stance Toward the Egyptian Mob
A lot of you are remarkably blood thirsty. Raze Cairo? Cairo is a city of 17,000,000 people. Are you [expletive] kidding me?
No. We're a civilized people. We don't do that [expletive] any more.
If we were, not only would more than half (or more hopefully) rise in revolt against any American government that did such a thing, we would be worldwide pariahs.
No. Razing cities is not a thing anymore.
The whole point of entering the damndable Libya war to begin with was to keep Qaddafi from razing Benghazi.
Get a freaking grip, people.
Nov '11
Re: To Those Who Demand A Tougher Stance Toward the Egyptian Mob
ConservativeWanderer
As I said before, Trace is saying, "Here's a cookie, please don't hurt us."
That's pretty much the Obama policy, and you can see how well it's worked. · 4 minutes ago
Which part of dropping bombs on people was the cookie?
Jul '12
Re: To Those Who Demand A Tougher Stance Toward the Egyptian Mob
Trace Urdan
RightinChicago: I think it's a fantasy to suggest that a middle class in the Middle East would help. Today in Britain, the muslims there are protesting outside our embassy and burning the U.S. flag. Living in one of the richest and most civilized countries on Earth has not stopped them from acting like Medieval Barbarians. Middle class status would simply mean they have more wealth which wish to try and spread the Ummah to every corner of the planet.
@ sawatdeeka Withdrawing from the Middle East will simply turn the whole region into a staging ground for the destruction of the West. I
To paraphrase Marcus Cato... Islam delende est. · 20 minutes ago
There are far more middle class Muslims living in the West that have reconciled their religion to capitalism than there are Muslims in the West advocating for Sharia law. · 1 hour ago
Islam delenda est
Provided they remain the minority. Communities in the West where Muslims become the dominant majority are becoming unsafe for us dhimmi. Muslims are only peaceful until they get numbers on their side.
Edited on September 14, 2012 at 8:08pmNov '10
Re: To Those Who Demand A Tougher Stance Toward the Egyptian Mob
Trace Urdan
I don't know enough about the history of either to argue the point. I am simply operating from the basic premise that human wiring is similar enough that an entire region can't be written off.
Okay I can see which side of "nature vs nurture" you come down on here, Trace. You think this is all wired into the genes.
Sorry. This is about the nurture provided by specific religious ideology and its effect on both individual and mass human behavior. It would be lovely to say, "Hmmm, this is what would calm me down ... let's try that" and have it work. But it clearly doesn't. Hasn't. Won't. Sure there is common basic humanity -- but it does not apply to all human behavior, and misapplying the principle is disastrous. It's what's at play in this case.
Every Friday, like today, is called, to some ME'ers, "Jihad Friday" because the Imams at Friday prayers generate a frenzy and then call for action as worshippers leave.
In churches around the world we end every service with these words:
Apr '12
Re: To Those Who Demand A Tougher Stance Toward the Egyptian Mob
Trace
Well stated. We have learned ( and the soviet union before us) that a big stick doesn't handle the situation of asymmetrical warfare well.
Jun '12
Re: To Those Who Demand A Tougher Stance Toward the Egyptian Mob
Trace Urdan
ConservativeWanderer
Please don't ascribe Tom's statements to me. That's intellectually lazy and sloppy debating, and characteristic of the Obamacrats.
I will accept a sincere apology, or I'll not bother with this debate any further. · 10 minutes ago
You're right. I am sincerely sorry. I was trying to group arguments together for the sake of efficiency but forgetting that every commenter is also an individual. I was enjoying our conversation CW and did not mean to offend. · 2 minutes ago
Very well.
Now, as for another Iraq, I notice that Pakistan has also been pretty much free of embassy attacks in the recent past. Yet we have not invaded them with a large force, just with the forces needed to pursue Afghanis fleeing, or the team that got Bin Laden.
In other words, razing cities may not be necessary to make these people fear us. But we do need to instill a deep fear of an American response in our enemies.
Obama's threats of a strongly worded letter clearly haven't done that, nor have all the dollars we've already thrown at Libya and Egypt.
Mar '11
Re: To Those Who Demand A Tougher Stance Toward the Egyptian Mob
ConservativeWanderer
R. Craigen:
Far from Big Sticks no longer being effective, what we see is the demonstrable effect of supplanting big sticks with poorly conceived olive branches. · 1 minute ago
Thank you.
As I said before, Trace is saying, "Here's a cookie, please don't hurt us."
When did the list of options become limited to either appeasement or mass killing?
I'm not completely on board with Trace's exporting capitalism plan, but we desperately need alternative suggestions to either extending olive branches or going in with guns blazing.
I still think the best option is something akin to the Gaza model: let the Middle East stew in their own juices, but intervene with overwhelming force when we get wind of a direct threat.
As long as many Arabian countries can get rich without doing much work it won't be incredibly effective, but it is better than the alternatives. Change in the culture and attitudes of the Middle East can only come from within - appeasement just tells them to continue on the same course, but blowing them away will also just push them further into their own failed ideology.
Jun '12
Re: To Those Who Demand A Tougher Stance Toward the Egyptian Mob
Mendel
I still think the best option is something akin to the Gaza model: let the Middle East stew in their own juices, but intervene with overwhelming force when we get wind of a direct threat. · 0 minutes ago
And attacking our embassies and killing our people isn't a direct threat?
I'm not saying attack Pakistan, to use a Muslim country fresh in my mind; there's been no direct attack there.
I am saying, where those attacks have happened, we respond with enough force to scare them out of doing it again.
Mar '11
Re: To Those Who Demand A Tougher Stance Toward the Egyptian Mob
Trace: In the long run, you are right, the there will be no end to evils from this region so long as these regimes remain as they are today and they are not reformed into becoming modern, liberal, constituional or parliamentary commercial states of one kind of another that abide by the rules of the international state system.
Of course to the degree that commerce softens mores and removes the attractiveness of martyrdom, it should be one of our tools of diplomacy. But we needn't confine ourselves merely to a view in which our only two policy options are 'we invade' or 'we trade', which seems to be what some of your comments suggest.
There are various weapons we have to bring to bear here. Use of force should absolutely be on the table against various elements and factions within these states ('frightening with our might', as you call it). We should absolutely use our influence, to the degree we can, to shape the internal character of these countries ('mentoring' as you call it) including foreign aid or the lack thereof, including educating students from them (or not) and providing visas or the lack thereof, etc.
Nov '10
Re: To Those Who Demand A Tougher Stance Toward the Egyptian Mob
Further to my point, Trace, are you familiar with the purge of religious ideology forced by the U.S. upon the Japanese after the end of WWII? It was clearly seen that political Shinto was feeding the extreme militaristic belligerence. After the war the American military crushed that element brutally with and with zero tolerance, in terms that would offend politically correct sentiments today.
But it worked.
Today Shinto is not a cauldron for dreams of violent acquisition of hegemony, Japan is at peace with the world, a they are relatively healthy nation socially, and a good Western Ally.
I think something similar could work in the ME. The problem, however, lies with the West: Who has the political fortitude to see such a program through? And it would have to be a far more massive campaign of re-programming with perhaps a two-generation timeline, or more.
Mar '11
Re: To Those Who Demand A Tougher Stance Toward the Egyptian Mob
ConservativeWanderer
Mendel
I still think the best option is something akin to the Gaza model: let the Middle East stew in their own juices, but intervene with overwhelming force when we get wind of a direct threat. · 0 minutes ago
And attacking our embassies and killing our people isn't a direct threat?
I'm not saying attack Pakistan, to use a Muslim country fresh in my mind; there's been no direct attack there.
I am saying, where those attacks have happened, we respond with enough force to scare them out of doing it again. · 0 minutes ago
I agree - but I think that "enough force" should be limited to ruthless pursuit of all directly and indirectly involved in planning the attack, but not razing Cairo.
I also think preventing attacks through constant surveillance, drone strikes, special force ops, freezing bank accounts, etc. are great tactics. We will never reach 100% deterrence, but the dearth of attacks since 9/11, and the fact that Iran cannot make a bomb after over a decade of trying, shows that this strategy can work.
Jun '12
Re: To Those Who Demand A Tougher Stance Toward the Egyptian Mob
Mendel
ConservativeWanderer
And attacking our embassies and killing our people isn't a direct threat?
I'm not saying attack Pakistan, to use a Muslim country fresh in my mind; there's been no direct attack there.
I am saying, where those attacks have happened, we respond with enough force to scare them out of doing it again. · 0 minutes ago
I agree - but I think that "enough force" should be limited to ruthless pursuit of all directly and indirectly involved in planning the attack, but not razing Cairo.
I also think preventing attacks through constant surveillance, drone strikes, special force ops, freezing bank accounts, etc. are great tactics. We will never reach 100% deterrence, but the dearth of attacks since 9/11, and the fact that Iran cannot make a bomb after over a decade of trying, shows that this strategy can work. · 2 minutes ago
Right. The surveillance, drone strikes, special force ops, and freezing bank accounts sure deterred those attacks against our embassy and people in Libya, didn't they?
Mar '11
Re: To Those Who Demand A Tougher Stance Toward the Egyptian Mob
ConservativeWanderer
Mendel
ConservativeWanderer
And attacking our embassies and killing our people isn't a direct threat?
I'm not saying attack Pakistan, to use a Muslim country fresh in my mind; there's been no direct attack there.
I am saying, where those attacks have happened, we respond with enough force to scare them out of doing it again. · 0 minutes ago
Right. The surveillance, drone strikes, special force ops, and freezing bank accounts sure deterred those attacks against our embassy and people in Libya, didn't they?
They did in Egypt - the embassy was tipped off and evacuated.
As for Benghazi, well, all the offense in the world won't protect your embassy if you don't let the Marines defending it load their weapons.
Nov '10
Re: To Those Who Demand A Tougher Stance Toward the Egyptian Mob
As for "persuading them with capitalism", are you aware of the analysis of several terrorism experts showing that among muslim nations, wealth and jihad aggression are positively correlated? In poorer muslim nations there is relatively little such aggression, in richer ones, there is more. Consider the Saudi jihad machine (ie funded by wealthy citizens). This may be a weak correlation, but it gets much stronger when one considers the infusion of Western resources. Palestine, for example, receives the largest per-capita developmental largess from the international community by a wide margin. Not exactly a thriving liberal democracy and good world citizen. This principle runs all the way down to the individual level: suicide bombers and participants in terrorist cells have education and personal wealth far above the average in their homelands. Many come from wealthy families by whom their jihad is underwritten as a matter of personal pride (and religious obligation -- such support is commanded in the Qur'an -- see ch. 4 v. 95-96 -- and many Hadith). More wealth, by itself, simply creates more opportunity for jihad.
Be careful what you wish for.
Jul '12
Re: To Those Who Demand A Tougher Stance Toward the Egyptian Mob
I think an effective approach borrows from a number of ideas expressed here.
The middle east culture respects the "strong horse" to quote Osama. The US, under Obama, has been is actively retreating from that position for years. We are now viewed as the "weak horse". Very sad, and sadly true.
So, to have any voice in the region, we need to reassert our position immediately and unambiguously. This means shooting, without any caveats or expressions of regrets, people who attack our embassies. If we cannot defend our own territory, we are unworthy of consideration.
Then, we need to support and build a middle class in the region. For parents in the middle east today; their daughters have no rights and their sons have no future. Why not wage Jihad?
If we can change their economy, so that there is a promise that actions taken today could improve their and and their children's tomorrow; why wouldn't their view change? This has been the basis of cultural improvement over centuries.
So no, it is not quick and easy; there is no easy answer. But it can be done.
And, as Americans, it is a meaningful endeavor to pursue.
Aug '12
Re: To Those Who Demand A Tougher Stance Toward the Egyptian Mob
They can't be persuaded by capitalism. Many radicalized jihadi's have lived years in western european democracies and have been educated at American or European universities.
Jul '12
Re: To Those Who Demand A Tougher Stance Toward the Egyptian Mob
But you have to separate the decadents with no purpose in life from the multitudes who are their cannon fodder.