To Those Who Demand A Tougher Stance Toward the Egyptian Mob
Here's the thing.
We just spent half a trillion dollars and over 2,000 American lives trying to clear Afghanistan and prevent it from serving as a safe haven for terrorists. And it's far from clear whether we will have succeeded for any meaningful length of time.
We actually invaded Iraq at a much higher cost in both blood and treasure, and while that country has a somewhat more stable government, it seems perfectly clear that this big, expensive lesson in American resolve and strength sunk in not one bit to the average anti-American Middle Easterner.
Now, thanks to the Arab spring and whatever part we played in that, we have unstable democracies sprouting up throughout the region, and if Benghazi is any example, each one of them offers a potential safe haven to terrorists.
So we can fault the president for not showing sufficient resolve and not being tough enough, but this is not the world of Ronald Reagan where tough talk and a big stick could cow the leaders of the Soviet Union. There is no peace through strength strategy that makes any sense for this threat. Because there is simply no amount of force for which we would ever have the stomach that could effectively cow this mob.
And let's be honest with ourselves. Even if the United States had stood behind Mubarak, his government would never have lasted for any meaningful length of time -- certainly not beyond his own death. The strong man era of Middle Eastern politics is imploding, with or without our blessing, so to fault the president for being responsible for that is foolish.
Our best hope is not to mentor these countries in democracy, charm them with our cultural sensitivity, or to frighten them with our military might, but to persuade them through capitalism. The only thing that will reduce the long term security risk emanating from this part of the world is a general improvement in their standard of living so that they actually have something to lose from inviting and encouraging zealous chaos. A middle class, Middle East will not harbor terrorists or condone suicide bombings for fear of discouraging Trader Joe's or IKEA from coming to town.
So I would like to hear someone speak of that reality in cogent tones.
Until then, for all our indignation over lines in airports, I fear that large American cities will increasingly have to resemble Tel Aviv.
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Comments:
Oct '11
Re: To Those Who Demand A Tougher Stance Toward the Egyptian Mob
We can start by shooting anyone that climbs over our embassy or consulate walls.
Nov '10
Re: To Those Who Demand A Tougher Stance Toward the Egyptian Mob
This is the best common sense I've heard yet amongst all the finger-pointing and emotion emerging from the events in the Middle East. Thank you.
Thank you especially for saying this: The strong man era of Middle Eastern politics is imploding, with or without our blessing, so to fault the president for being responsible for that is foolish.
That faulting gets us nowhere but instead creates more fog around the situation so it is hard to sort out truth from talk.
I hope you speak up often on foreign policy.
Nov '10
Re: To Those Who Demand A Tougher Stance Toward the Egyptian Mob
What would happen if we just folded all operations out there, withdrew any of our citizenry from the Middle East, and stayed home? Yes, bad things would happen, but it seems like a lesser evil than becoming entangled in those affairs.
I suppose the more powerful Middle Eastern countries could start taking over other parts of the world like Communism did, but if we became self-sufficient and quit buying their oil, perhaps they would be too poor to fight.
Edited on September 14, 2012 at 5:54pmJun '12
Re: To Those Who Demand A Tougher Stance Toward the Egyptian Mob
Capitalism cannot exist without the rule of law.
What good is it to start a McDonald's if the local warlord can come in and take all the money out of the till and all the food for his troops whenever he wants?
A stable government comes first. Then capitalism can thrive.
Sep '10
Re: To Those Who Demand A Tougher Stance Toward the Egyptian Mob
Trace Urdan:
Our best hope is not to mentor these countries in democracy, charm them with our cultural sensitivity, or to frighten them with our military might, but to persuade them through capitalism.
This is a false choice. It's not either-or. We can persuade them through capitalism, but in the meantime, frighten them. It worked with the USSR, at least to some degree. It's working in China.
Islamic militants certainly won't be persuaded by capitalism; they don't even accept the legitimacy of credit. Try building a capitalist system without it. Besides, we have to protect our interests, including our people, with force if necessary. Persuasion alone is weak. Even if it succeeds eventually, the cost will be high. It's not free, as assumed in this post. Just ask the families of the murdered embassy staff.
Some people only understand force. Appeasement is for losers.
Dec '10
Re: To Those Who Demand A Tougher Stance Toward the Egyptian Mob
Capitalism has the possibility of creating wealth and leisure which the extremists will consider decadence. There is no way they will allow it so much as a toe hold there.
Jul '12
Re: To Those Who Demand A Tougher Stance Toward the Egyptian Mob
I think it's a fantasy to suggest that a middle class in the Middle East would help. Today in Britain, the muslims there are protesting outside our embassy and burning the U.S. flag. Living in one of the richest and most civilized countries on Earth has not stopped them from acting like Medieval Barbarians. Middle class status would simply mean they have more wealth which wish to try and spread the Ummah to every corner of the planet.
@ sawatdeeka Withdrawing from the Middle East will simply turn the whole region into a staging ground for the destruction of the West. I
To paraphrase Marcus Cato... Islam delende est.
May '10
Re: To Those Who Demand A Tougher Stance Toward the Egyptian Mob
drlorentz
This is a false choice. It's noteither-or. We can persuade them through capitalism, but in the meantime, frighten them. It worked with the USSR, at least to some degree. It's working in China.
But dealing with the governments in traditional terms makes no sense. In these countries, the governments have no legitimacy or effective control. You cannot reason with a party that you cannot engage in dialogue. We cannot keep the peace in a half-dozen nations. And carpet-bombing Benghazi accomplishes exactly nothing and persuades no one of anything.
I understand that capitalism cannot exist without rule of law. But so what? What power do we have to institute rule of law anywhere in the Middle East? Would you suggest an Iraq-style strategy across the region? Has the case of Iraq or Afghanistan been sufficiently successful to warrant such a thing?
What about replacing the Embassy in Egypt with a (heavily-armed) bank and taking the $1.5 billion of U.S. Aid and instead turning those funds into assets to be loaned to individuals interested in starting or expanding a business. Would there not be lines around the block?
Jun '12
Re: To Those Who Demand A Tougher Stance Toward the Egyptian Mob
Trace Urdan
But dealing with the governments in traditional terms makes no sense. In these countries, the governments have no legitimacy or effective control. You cannot reason with a party that you cannot engage in dialogue. We cannot keep the peace in a half-dozen nations. And carpet-bombing Benghazi accomplishes exactly nothing and persuades no one of anything.
I understand that capitalism cannot exist without rule of law. But so what? What power do we have to institute rule of law anywhere in the Middle East? Would you suggest an Iraq-style strategy across the region? Has the case of Iraq or Afghanistan been sufficiently successful to warrant such a thing?
What about replacing the Embassy in Egypt with a (heavily-armed) bank and taking the $1.5 billion of U.S. Aid and instead turning those funds into assets to be loaned to individuals interested in starting or expanding a business. Would there not be lines around the block? · 0 minutes ago
Yeah, there'd be lines around the block... the terrorists would get their money, either directly or by shaking down business owners, and then turn it into more guns and bombs.
May '10
Re: To Those Who Demand A Tougher Stance Toward the Egyptian Mob
RightinChicago: I think it's a fantasy to suggest that a middle class in the Middle East would help. Today in Britain, the muslims there are protesting outside our embassy and burning the U.S. flag. Living in one of the richest and most civilized countries on Earth has not stopped them from acting like Medieval Barbarians. Middle class status would simply mean they have more wealth which wish to try and spread the Ummah to every corner of the planet.
@ sawatdeeka Withdrawing from the Middle East will simply turn the whole region into a staging ground for the destruction of the West. I
To paraphrase Marcus Cato... Islam delende est. · 12 minutes ago
Emphatically disagree. Do you not believe that material wealth has had an impact on the practice of Christianity? It was only a few hundred years ago that non-believers were treated rather harshly by the Catholic church. I don't think human nature is so variable by region.
May '10
Re: To Those Who Demand A Tougher Stance Toward the Egyptian Mob
drlorentz
Some people only understand force. Appeasement is for losers. · 20 minutes ago
And to be clear, I am not suggesting we not protect our interests or our embassies. But simply that we've tried exercising as much force as our electorate can bear and it has had a barely negligible effect. The most effective thing it has done it to draw fire away from American soil. So we can invade Libya and continue this strategy, but it divides our electorate and does nothing to move toward a permanent solution.
May '10
Re: To Those Who Demand A Tougher Stance Toward the Egyptian Mob
RightinChicago: I think it's a fantasy to suggest that a middle class in the Middle East would help. Today in Britain, the muslims there are protesting outside our embassy and burning the U.S. flag. Living in one of the richest and most civilized countries on Earth has not stopped them from acting like Medieval Barbarians. Middle class status would simply mean they have more wealth which wish to try and spread the Ummah to every corner of the planet.
@ sawatdeeka Withdrawing from the Middle East will simply turn the whole region into a staging ground for the destruction of the West. I
To paraphrase Marcus Cato... Islam delende est. · 20 minutes ago
There are far more middle class Muslims living in the West that have reconciled their religion to capitalism than there are Muslims in the West advocating for Sharia law.
Jun '12
Re: To Those Who Demand A Tougher Stance Toward the Egyptian Mob
Trace Urdan
drlorentz
Some people only understand force. Appeasement is for losers. · 20 minutes ago
And to be clear, I am not suggesting we not protect our interests or our embassies. But simply that we've tried exercising as much force as our electorate can bear and it has had a barely negligible effect. The most effective thing it has done it to draw fire away from American soil. So we can invade Libya and continue this strategy, but it divides our electorate and does nothing to move toward a permanent solution. · 0 minutes ago
Pie-in-the-sky "let's give them McDonalds" won't do anything to move towards a permanent solution either. It feels oddly similar to Obama's "let's all sit down and talk about it" approach.
In fact, given that it's a symbol of America, such a McDonalds would probably be a prime target of the terrorists... and it's cheaper to attack, because it's right in their own country!
May '10
Re: To Those Who Demand A Tougher Stance Toward the Egyptian Mob
Their immediate neighbors in Israel demonstrate the benefits of capitalism every day. Helping capitalism grow across the street and hope travellers return home with dreams of freedom is all we can do.
May '10
Re: To Those Who Demand A Tougher Stance Toward the Egyptian Mob
ConservativeWanderer
Yeah, there'd be lines around the block... the terrorists would get their money, either directly or by shaking down business owners, and then turn it into more guns and bombs. · 9 minutes ago
But trying to fight the insurgents on their turf has proven expensive, bloody and politically unpopular both at home and in the countries we've entered. So how is an aggressive military strategy not counter-productive?
We can't afford to win on those terms. Our only choice has to be to change the rules.
Jun '12
Re: To Those Who Demand A Tougher Stance Toward the Egyptian Mob
Trace Urdan
ConservativeWanderer
Yeah, there'd be lines around the block... the terrorists would get their money, either directly or by shaking down business owners, and then turn it into more guns and bombs. · 9 minutes ago
But trying to fight the insurgents on their turf has proven expensive, bloody and politically unpopular both at home and in the countries we've entered. So how is an aggressive military strategy not counter-productive?
We can't afford to win on those terms. Our only choice has to be to change the rules. · 0 minutes ago
It worked well enough with Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan.
The problem is, our Political Class doesn't have the guts to do it any more.
May '10
Re: To Those Who Demand A Tougher Stance Toward the Egyptian Mob
Muslim state. Reprehensible social norms. Zero haven for terrorists.
Sep '10
Re: To Those Who Demand A Tougher Stance Toward the Egyptian Mob
Trace Urdan
It was only a few hundred years ago that non-believers were treated rather harshly by the Catholic church. I don't think human nature is so variable by region.
So it took a few hundred years? No problem, right? This gets back to my previous point: the course you suggest has a cost too. We'll all be dead long before your strategy works, if it works. Meanwhile, there will be many casualties directly attributable to this approach.
Need I remind you that the 9-11 attacks happened because we were perceived as weak and unwilling to retaliate? If the West encourages that perception handing out money at a teller window in Egypt, there will be more trouble for us, not less. It would be perceived as an attempt to buy them off.
I'm not suggesting carpet-bombing Benghazi. That would be an error for reasons too numerous to mention. With all their problems, the Iraq and Afghanistan strategies have not been without their benefits to our position. Like most people, Arabs respect strength and find weakness contemptible.
We cannot wait for them to see the light and adopt capitalism. Who knows if they ever will?
May '10
Re: To Those Who Demand A Tougher Stance Toward the Egyptian Mob
ConservativeWanderer
It worked well enough with Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan.
The problem is, our Political Class doesn't have the guts to do it any more. · 7 minutes ago
Conventional warfare against conventional nation-states with lots to lose. Completely irrelevant to this example. Do you think that if we razed Benghazi, that the population of Cairo would then conclude that we mean business and they'd better not mess with Al Quaeda?
Sep '10
Re: To Those Who Demand A Tougher Stance Toward the Egyptian Mob
Trace Urdan
The most effective thing it has done it to draw fire away from American soil.
This is a worthy goal. That's the main reason for having a military force: to protect our citizens. You would have more attacks on US soil (cf. Madrid and London bombings) instead?