Time To Get Real: Obama Is Very Likely To Win
Despite some momentum for Romney, all indications are of a very close popular vote but an Electoral College win by Obama. The idea expounded once again by Paul Rahe on the mothership podcast that Romney will win going away has no basis in fact. Look at the RCP Electoral College map and the RCP average of various states. Granting that many of these states are within the margin of error, Obama is ahead in the toss-up states of Virginia (barely), Ohio, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Iowa and Nevada. Romney is ahead in Florida, North Carolina, and Colorado (barely). Even giving Virginia and New Hampshire to Romney does not do the trick. It is still Obama 277, Romney 261.
This makes it all ride in Ohio. When you look at Ohio alone, it becomes clear that Obama has a small, but noticeable and consistent, lead. It is hard to imagine that in the last two weeks Romney, not having secured a lead yet, will, after all the money and time in Ohio, shift the electorate the 3-5% that he needs to win the state. Ohio is almost certainly where it will be on Election Day.
The Gallup poll showing Romney up six is an outlier. The truth is that the popular vote nationwide is extremely close, but that Obama's state-by-state advantage puts him easily into the driver's seat. Can Romney pull it out? I suppose so. But by far the likeliest outcome is an Obama win with the GOP remarkably stumbling in the Senate races. Time to prepare for a very disappointing election night. I suggest a John Wayne film and some of the Glenlivet.