Time For A North Korean Spring?
Well this is surprising news. The Associated Press is reporting that North Korea's dictator Kim Jong-il is dead. Or as they put it, its "mercurial and enigmatic leader." (Perhaps we should be glad they didn't go with one of these titles -- my favorite is "Highest Incarnation of the Revolutionary Comradely Love")
One of his sons -- Kim Jong-Un -- is next in line but I can't help but hope that the people of North Korea see an end to their slavery and brutal captivity. This picture says it all.
Allahpundit recommends re-reading Robert Kaplan's "When North Korea Falls," from The Atlantic back in 2006. Here's some helpful information for the Committee for Human Rights in North Korea.
I'd recommend a certain video from Team America, but it violates the Code of Conduct. Remember the Hans Blix bit where he threatens to write a letter? And yes, the South Korean military is on full alert.
What do you think comes next?
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Comments:
Aug '10
Re: Time For A North Korean Spring?
Does anyone know anything about his son?
Re: Time For A North Korean Spring?
Well, I'm looking for stuff now but I recall hearing he's a total buffoon. And the link above -- which is about how he's a 20-something "fashion icon" doesn't really give much indication.
Aug '10
Re: Time For A North Korean Spring?
When Kim Il Sung died the people seemed to be genuinely distraught. Same with Stalin. Same with others. Who knows what the public really thinks in that hell hole. It seems possible that, in this internet age (smugglers from China have been known to sneak in cellphones), people would have some sense that the outside world is much better. Hopefully some will see Kim Jong Il's death as a chance for action and take it!
Jun '10
Re: Time For A North Korean Spring?
And what's the Chinese Navy up to at the moment?
May '10
Re: Time For A North Korean Spring?
If you want good stuff on the next generation I highly recommend Rob Long's parodies of his diary and Twitter feeds that appeared in National Review awhile back.
May '10
Re: Time For A North Korean Spring?
Well, we simply need to look to history to inform us. Here is the President in an interview in June 2009 when asked about protests in Iran:
But the last point I want to make on this – this is not an issue of the United States or the West versus Iran; this is an issue of the Iranian people. The fact that they are on the streets, under pretty severe duress, at great risk to themselves, is a sign that there's something in that society that wants to open up. And, you know, we respect Iran's sovereignty and we respect the fact that ultimately the Iranian people have to make these decisions.
To directly answer your question, Mollie: no. You see, DPRK is an existential threat to the world. We don't deal with that anymore. We simply see to the overthrow of our allies.
Edited on December 19, 2011 at 10:15pmDec '10
Re: Time For A North Korean Spring?
I have faith that the new Kim on the block will prove every bit the gentle reformer that the younger Assad has turned out to be.
Re: Time For A North Korean Spring?
Unfortunately, I'm hesitant to interpret Kim Jong-il's death as a means of liberation for North Korea. That wasn't the case when he succeeded his father, nor does it necessarily mean it will be when his son succeeds him.
On that note though, my understand was that Jong-il's brother-in-law, Chang Sung-taek, had his eyes on the "throne," if I may call it that, which could result in an ugly power struggle if the population is split between loyalty to the Kim dynasty, supporters of Chang, and liberation activists. According to a quick Wikipedia check:
Sep '10
Re: Time For A North Korean Spring?
Waiting for controversial Newt Gingrich campaign office Press Release 3, 2,1,.....
Mar '11
Re: Time For A North Korean Spring?
Unfortunately if we are lucky we will have more of the same with Kim Jong Un taking over in a peaceful succession to continue the brutality of the North Korean regime.
It is entirely possible though that we will be very unlucky and this foppish child will be completely unable to control the regime, in which case we get a power struggle on the most highly militarized border on Earth. Add nuclear weapons for spice and let your imagination do the rest.
Hmm, STRATFOR notes that when Kim Jong Il's father died it took approximately three years of internal chaos for him to solidify control. Kim Jong Un was only appointed successor in 2010, born January 1984 (how appropriate is that) a 27 year old child-man mostly known for his interest in the NBA and Tokyo Disneyland.
Well, we shall see. President Obama may soon be facing a very serious foreign policy challenge.
Edited on December 19, 2011 at 5:34amMay '10
Re: Time For A North Korean Spring?
I prefer old dictators to young dictators, generally. Young people are more impulsive and more determined to change the world.
I'm reminded of this fictional scenario by director John Milius in which Little Kim unites North and South Korea. It's far-fetched, but perhaps renewed military actions against the South are not such a stretch of the imagination.
Jan '11
Re: Time For A North Korean Spring?
I just pray that whoever is going to end up in charge takes charge, and quickly. The alternatives are painful to consider.
My own suspicion is that, in the face of complete collapse of the DPRK, the Chinese People's Liberation Army is the only institution positioned to stabilize North Korea. And while North Korea as a PRC colony isn't anyone's ideal, it would almost certainly be an improvement for the North Korean people.
Aug '10
Re: Time For A North Korean Spring?
Holy crap. That's hilarious. Thanks for sharing.
Dec '10
Re: Time For A North Korean Spring?
When do you think he actually died?
I'm wondering if the "regime" has had little to do with Lil Kim and has been pretty much running itself via frightened advisers and generals. They tell him what he wants to hear, keep him insulated and do the business of the state themselves.
In that case, the announcement of the death may have come after the arrangements were in place.
Mar '11
Re: Time For A North Korean Spring?
Roberto
Well, we shall see. President Obama may soon be facing a very serious foreign policy challenge.
No problem - we are indeed fortunate that our own Dear Leader is fully capable of dealing with such a serious challenge.
Apr '11
Re: Time For A North Korean Spring?
An interregnum could be devastating, if it is protracted and intensifies to public violence....I think the real question is what do we try to do. Do we even have a hope of trying to offer the DPRK any incentives to open up and rejoin the world? Can we take the risk that such an offer by us would only embolden the more radical factions? I mean we in the public barely know anything about this new "Child King", what confidence do we have that the US State Department knows that much more? I kind of feel bad for Obama...this will not turn out well either way, I think. The good option is more of the same, the bad is open war on the Korean Peninsula...
Sep '10
Re: Time For A North Korean Spring?
In the short run I suspect that the US Balistic Missile defence is on (or is fixin' to be on) high alert around South Korea. If the North Koreans are lucky, "just enough of a war" will happen to allow the South to crush the North and free its people from the horrible repression the live under. This may turn out to be quite destructive to the South Koreans, however, most of whom live within artillary range of the North.
It is hard for me to imagine a leader to allow his nation to live as the North Koreans are forced to.
Edited on December 19, 2011 at 4:49pm