Tied in Michigan?
George Savage ·
March 1, 2012 at 12:39am
Just arrived in my email from Rick Santorum's campaign. The argument is that Romney narrowly won the popular vote while Santorum won more counties. Given that the state awards delegates by congressional district, which Rick and Mitt split, the two appear tied in the state's delegate count.
Do you buy it? Is a delegate tie in Romney's home state something of an upset, or did Mitt's late surge to win the popular vote make him Mr. Inevitable once again, surely on his way to facing President Obama in the fall?
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Nov '10
Re: Tied in Michigan?
George Savage
Metro Detroit and environs was Romney's strength, but I think the actual results don't split smoothly along urban vs. rural lines. CBS News has a good analysis (source of graphic below). Mitt also did well in the north of the state--pretty rural terrain--while Rick did well in Grand Rapids, a city. The pundits are splitting the electorate on social conservative lines and also income and education. · 14 hours ago
Excuse me for being a Master Of the Obvious (MOO), but don't these results vindicate Ann Coulter's argument that Romney has a way of tricking liberals into voting for him?
Could it be that Romney will be better in swing states than Santorum? Red counties are never going to vote for Obama, and they will turn out in droves regardless of who our nominee is. But doesn't this graphic show that Romney is bound to make a strong showing in purple counties?
Just sayin' . . .
Nov '10
Re: Tied in Michigan?
Another thing I wonder is how many hard-core Democrats voted for Santorum. Even though we know that this is happening to some extent, we also see that Romney nevertheless did well in Dem strongholds.
Romney has shown that he can beat Santorum in a close, important race. Yes, he had to outspend Santorum by 4 to 1, but he was ABLE to outspend him by 4 to 1. Romney has a superior organization and superior fundraising ability. If demonstrating the ability to win is important, then Romney's the man.
Aug '10
Re: Tied in Michigan?
At the end of the day, all that matters is the number of delgates at the convention.
Michigan was a tie.
Nov '10
Re: Tied in Michigan?
Romney attracts Democrat votes because he's filthy rich. That's the general rule.
Oct '11
Re: Tied in Michigan?
George Savage
Levin also made the point that Romney backers in Michigan strongly pushed for an open primary for this election, believing that their man would disproportionately benefit. This approach paid off for Romney in New Hampshire. Interesting that angling for Democrat and Independent votes suddenly becomes unacceptable when Rick Santorum is the beneficiary.
It seems the Romney campaign didn't consider that a Republican challenger would make an appeal to big labor Democrats to settle union grievances. Auto workers of Michigan unite was the message that helped Santorum get close to pulling off an upset.
Santorum's appeal to class envy should make all economic conservatives wary.
Oct '11
Re: Tied in Michigan?
Doug Lee
Excuse me for being a Master Of the Obvious (MOO), but don't these results vindicate Ann Coulter's argument that Romney has a way of tricking liberals into voting for him?
Could it be that Romney will be better in swing states than Santorum? Red counties are never going to vote for Obama, and they will turn out in droves regardless of who our nominee is. But doesn't this graphic show that Romney is bound to make a strong showing in purple counties?
Just sayin' . . . · 2 hours ago
You are obviously right. The fact is: swing voters most often decide national elections. That may frustrate ideological purists both left and right, but if conservatives are truly the group that follows logic over emotion we will strive to see things as they truly are and vote accordingly.
Re: Tied in Michigan?
Tom, I'm not so sure. I've listened to the Santorum robocall and I think he is highlighting inconsistency: Romney backed the Wall Street bailout but opposed the same treatment for automakers. Santorum has repeatedly rejected both bailouts.
Re: Tied in Michigan?
Doug, you raise a question of enormous import. Will the deciding factor in the election be working-class swing-state voters attracted to Santorum's populist message, or higher-income Independents uncomfortable with social issues and drawn to Romney's just-the-economy focus?
Romney has the advantage in money and organization; he's tougher to demonize than Santorum or Gingrich--apart from the one-percenter investment executive attack. He could well be the guy to send President Obama back home to Chicago this fall.
Jul '10
Re: Tied in Michigan?
George Savage
Tom, I'm not so sure. I've listened to the Santorum robocall and I think he is highlighting inconsistency: Romney backed the Wall Street bailout but opposed the same treatment for automakers. Santorum has repeatedly rejected bothbailouts. · 36 minutes ago
The robocall I heard doesn't mention Santorum's consistency as a selling point. It calls Romney's rejection of the auto bailout a "slap in the face to Michigan workers."
This isn't like Reagan appealing to blue-collar Democrats to vote for him. These are people who wouldn't vote for Santorum in the general, at least in part because of his position on the bailout.
Apr '11
Re: Tied in Michigan?
billy: If you're Romney (or a Romney donor), you can't be too happy about last night/
It's the state he grew up in and his father was governor
He had most of the state's political establishment behind him
and a much bigger and better organization
and a lot more money
and no hesitation to go as negative as possible
and he won here handily 4 years ago
and his main opponent was a footnote only a few weeks ago.
result: a 3 point win. ·
Romney's lost a third of the states he won in 2008 (MN, and CO, winning NV, ME, WY and MI both times). And he's been declared a winner of states he lost in 2008 (losing SC, being declared the winner of NH, FL, AZ, and IA, albeit incorrectly). He had some advantages in Michigan, but Michigan was also a near perfect state for Santorum. You'll note that Santorum chose not to challenge him in Arizona.
I'd say that the cheap and devastating victory in Arizona is precisely the sort of thing Romney backers like. Combining it with a repeat Michigan victory is a nice bonus, too.
Apr '11
Re: Tied in Michigan?
George Savage
Metro Detroit and environs was Romney's strength, but I think the actual results don't split smoothly along urban vs. rural lines. CBS News has a good analysis (source of graphic below). Mitt also did well in the north of the state--pretty rural terrain--while Rick did well in Grand Rapids, a city. The pundits are splitting the electorate on social conservative lines and also income and education. · 20 hours ago
Rick also won Michigan's bluest district, the 13th (in a statistical tie with the neighboring 14th), lately the home of Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick, mother of Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick, and deep in urban Detroit. Doesn't show up in the county maps because Wayne is really big.
Apr '11
Re: Tied in Michigan?
According to Michigan's exit polls, Michigan is an exception to the general rule.
Apr '11
Re: Tied in Michigan?
Gus Marvinson
George Savage
Spin it is, no question. I just wonder whether this marks the beginning of the end, as we all start to rally around Romney, or if there is enough dissent yet for a long grind through the spring. ·
I don't think Romney can call Michigan a rallying point. Two months ago nobody would have thought Romney's victory would be this closely contested. It's his family's state and he had to spend a lot of money to win a close contest. Mitt better be ready for a long fight. ·
It's true that two months ago, no one would have thought he was facing a candidate whose strength was in the Mid-West; Santorum's the only candidate who could have rivalled Mitt in Michigan, with the possible exception of Bachmann, or maybe Cain, and both were done by that point. If you'd postulated a match-up with Santorum, though, you'd have predicted that Arizona would be easy, Michigan hard.
As National Review said months ago, Santorum is a far better candidate/ President than his predecessors.
Jul '10
Re: Tied in Michigan?
The Michigan Republican Party awarded Romney 16 delegates and Santorum 14, per MIRS.