Tied in Michigan?
George Savage ·
March 1, 2012 at 12:39am
Just arrived in my email from Rick Santorum's campaign. The argument is that Romney narrowly won the popular vote while Santorum won more counties. Given that the state awards delegates by congressional district, which Rick and Mitt split, the two appear tied in the state's delegate count.
Do you buy it? Is a delegate tie in Romney's home state something of an upset, or did Mitt's late surge to win the popular vote make him Mr. Inevitable once again, surely on his way to facing President Obama in the fall?
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Comments:
Dec '10
Re: Tied in Michigan?
As per usual, nothing is really known at least until Super Tuesday, and sometimes not even then. Apportioning the delegates makes it even more likely that we won't know anything for a while.
Jul '11
Re: Tied in Michigan?
I'm contemplating a limbless Black Knight stating,"All right, we'll call it a draw".
Mar '11
Re: Tied in Michigan?
Even if Romney had won all of the delegates, winning the popular vote by only 3% in Michigan has to make the Romney camp a bit dyspeptic.
Apr '11
Re: Tied in Michigan?
Let me guess, urban (blue) districts went for Romney and rural (red) districts went for Santorum.
Mar '11
Re: Tied in Michigan?
Of course this is spin by the Santorum camp. Victory is always better.
Edited on March 1, 2012 at 1:10amRe: Tied in Michigan?
Metro Detroit and environs was Romney's strength, but I think the actual results don't split smoothly along urban vs. rural lines. CBS News has a good analysis (source of graphic below). Mitt also did well in the north of the state--pretty rural terrain--while Rick did well in Grand Rapids, a city. The pundits are splitting the electorate on social conservative lines and also income and education.
Re: Tied in Michigan?
Spin it is, no question. I just wonder whether this marks the beginning of the end, as we all start to rally around Romney, or if there is enough dissent yet for a long grind through the spring.
Dec '10
Re: Tied in Michigan?
I call it less of a tie than a case where neither of them clearly won.
Mitt failed to deliver a powerful enough blow to knock Santorum out of the race. The proof is that Santorum is credibly spinning this as a tie against a better-armed foe on that foe's home field.
Santorum failed to deal Mitt a blow powerful enough to solidify the doubts many were expressing about the latter's ability to march to victory. If Santorum had won the popular vote, even by a Iowa-thin margin, the narrative of "Mitt can't win in his birthplace -- how's he going to beat Obama?" would have gotten a big boost. As it happened, Santorum has to hope for a resurgence in momentum from the Washington caucuses this weekend to help him go into Super Tuesday on a true note of victory.
Jun '10
Re: Tied in Michigan?
Final total (per Google): Romney 409,899--Santorum 377,899
Speaking of counties, Romney won Oakland County by 74,030 to 42,465.
There are counties and then there are counties.
On the other hand, Santorum's spin is accurate, if incomplete.
What's he saying about AZ? No counties, no delegates.
Edited on March 1, 2012 at 1:30amDec '10
Re: Tied in Michigan?
George Savage
Spin it is, no question. I just wonder whether this marks the beginning of the end, as we all start to rally around Romney, or if there is enough dissent yet for a long grind through the spring.
I'm not yet ready to rally around Romney. I want to see that he can take his huge advantages in money and organization and turn those into a string of convincing victories, especially against badly underfunded opponents, before I'll be convinced that he's ready to take on Obama.
And if one of those badly underfunded opponents shows that he can score a string of convincing victories against the money and organization Romney has at his disposal, I'll feel pretty good about that guy's chances against Obama.
Apr '11
Re: Tied in Michigan?
If you're Romney (or a Romney donor), you can't be too happy about last night/
It's the state he grew up in and his father was governor
He had most of the state's political establishment behind him
and a much bigger and better organization
and a lot more money
and no hesitation to go as negative as possible
and he won here handily 4 years ago
and his main opponent was a footnote only a few weeks ago.
result: a 3 point win.
Aug '10
Re: Tied in Michigan?
In that picture, Santorum even looks a little like Romney. I did not know that was possible.
Apr '11
Re: Tied in Michigan?
Santorum lost. Maybe he he got the same number of delegates, but Romney got all the delegates in Arizona. Santorum people might like to think, Hey we only lost by 3%, in Mitt Romney's home state! It's a victory!
Well a few more victories like this and Mitt Romney will be the Republican Nominee.
Jul '10
Re: Tied in Michigan?
Which is about 70,000 more votes than he received when he won in 2008.
There were about 100,000 more votes cast than in 2008.
Edited on March 1, 2012 at 1:53amSep '10
Re: Tied in Michigan?
George Savage
Metro Detroit and environs was Romney's strength, but I think the actual results don't split smoothly along urban vs. rural lines.
With respect to GML's point, I am not sure that saying "Metro Detroit" is entirely meaningful.
Hopefully someone from Michigan can give us a better idea of the voting patterns.
Using my own locale as an example, "Metro Milwaukee" is broken down between the typical deep blue central city, plus a couple of north shore lefty suburbs, but the remaining suburbs are as deep red as you'll find in the entire Midwest.
May '10
Re: Tied in Michigan?
I'm surprised not to see any outrage about Santorum stooping to try to get Dems to crossover to vote for him.
If I were Romney, I would go spend some time with Marco Rubio and just let it be known that I would consider him for VP. He could sew it up with a serious gesture like that.
Edited on March 1, 2012 at 1:57amJun '10
Re: Tied in Michigan?
What is it they count at the convention? Gum wrappers? No, I think it's delegates.
Jun '10
Re: Tied in Michigan?
Is that to prepare for those Marquess of Queensberry rules that Obama will be using? It's not like Romney would not have done the same thing if he was perceived (by Democrats) to be the weaker foe. You use what you got.
Dec '10
Re: Tied in Michigan?
Yes: this is why Santorum is able to claim a tie in Michigan.
(Santorum didn't do too badly in votes there, either. While Romney outscored his 2008 vote total by 70,000 votes, Santorum outscored Romney's 2008 vote total by about 40,000 votes....)
Sep '10
Re: Tied in Michigan?
Any truth to the rumor that Ron Paul plans on exchanging his delegates for Bazooka Joe wrappers?