Thursday Could Be Bad for Obama. Or It Could Be Really Bad.
Diane Ellis ·
June 26, 2012 at 1:28am
In addition to the Obamacare decision which is slated to come down on Thursday, the House vote on a resolution that would hold Eric Holder in contempt of Congress has been scheduled for that day as well. From The Hill:
A vote by the full House would escalate a confrontation between House Republicans and the Obama administration that could wind up in court.
The vote will likely coincide with a Supreme Court ruling on Obama’s healthcare law. That ruling is likely to overshadow the House vote, but a contempt citation could compound a politically disastrous day for Obama if the court overturns the healthcare law.
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Dec '10
Re: Thursday Could Be Bad for Obama. Or It Could Be Really Bad.
Diane,
From your keyboard to Gd's ear.
Regards,
Jim
Apr '11
Re: Thursday Could Be Bad for Obama. Or It Could Be Really Bad.
Or it could be a wonderful day for Obama. The Supreme Court upholds Obamacare 6-3 just as Nancy Pelosi predicted (and which I think is more likely than the law being thrown out), and Holder is held in contempt in a move that backfires and makes Republicans out to look like zealots out to get a President who still has a high personal favorability rating.
Mar '11
Re: Thursday Could Be Bad for Obama. Or It Could Be Really Bad.
The chickenssss are coming home to rooost.
Nov '11
Re: Thursday Could Be Bad for Obama. Or It Could Be Really Bad.
How about we set up a live chat for Thursday?
May '11
Re: Thursday Could Be Bad for Obama. Or It Could Be Really Bad.
wmartin is the true pessimist on this site. I tend to think that Obamacare will be largely overturned and Holder will be sited for comtempt of Congress. That doesn't mean it is time to get cocky as Instapundit would say. It does mean that something unexpected is happening here. For the past two months we have been watching the incredible shrinking president and not even the most optimistic conservative could have forecast that.
Edited on June 26, 2012 at 2:01amApr '11
Re: Thursday Could Be Bad for Obama. Or It Could Be Really Bad.
Southern Pessimist: wmartin is the true pessimist on this site. I tend to think that Obamacare will be largely overturned and Holder will be sited for comtempt of Congress. That doesn't mean it time to get cocky as Instapundit would say. It does mean that something unexpected is happening here. For the past two months we have been watching the incredible shrinking president and not even the most optimistic conservative could have forecast that. · 1 minute ago
Edited 0 minutes ago
I do tend to be overly pessimistic. I felt a little bit of dread at what I thought were premature celebrations regarding the Scott Walker recall, and I have had the same feeling over the last month as many conservatives have been acting like this case is just as good as won. I have been as entertained as everyone else by the liberal meltdowns, but I will enjoy them much more after we actually have a favorable ruling.
I do agree that even an optimist could not have guessed how far back we would come in only four years (conservatives, not the country). I briefly entertained the Sam Tanenhaus thesis in my darker moods in 2009.
Aug '10
Re: Thursday Could Be Bad for Obama. Or It Could Be Really Bad.
Amen sister.
Dec '10
Re: Thursday Could Be Bad for Obama. Or It Could Be Really Bad.
Diane - good thing there's nothing in the CoC about putting up particularly titillating posts.
Apr '11
Re: Thursday Could Be Bad for Obama. Or It Could Be Really Bad.
Don't know if this is the right thread for this, but here's an interesting tidbit over at Hot Gas:
http://hotair.com/archives/2012/06/25/oh-my-is-ginsburg-writing-the-main-obamacare-dissent/
May '11
Re: Thursday Could Be Bad for Obama. Or It Could Be Really Bad.
No, wmartin, I think that any link with Ruth Bader Ginsberg should have gone to the Ricochet is better than sex thread.
May '10
Re: Thursday Could Be Bad for Obama. Or It Could Be Really Bad.
The Supremes continue Obamacare to next year for additional arguments. The GOP House "Leadership" discovers an arcane parliamentary diktat requiring tabling the contempt motion to the sixth Friday of February.
Joe Biden grabs his lunchpail and heads back to the mine, and PBO saddles up his unicorn to take another run at the pot of gold at the end of the Hollywood rainbow.
It could happen.
Apr '11
Re: Thursday Could Be Bad for Obama. Or It Could Be Really Bad.
If it is upheld, it will most likely be 6-3. The CJ will be in the majority and write the opinion whichever way it goes. If Kennedy gives the 5th vote, the CJ will go along so he can write the opinion to limit its scope. I am hoping Kennedy does not vote to uphold Obamacare, or at least the individual mandate, but if he does as martin predicts, it will be 6-3. I wish it were otherwise.
Apr '11
Re: Thursday Could Be Bad for Obama. Or It Could Be Really Bad.
Ken Burns
If it is upheld, it will most likely be 6-3. The CJ will be in the majority and write the opinion whichever way it goes. If Kennedy gives the 5th vote, the CJ will go along so he can write the opinion to limit its scope. I am hoping Kennedy does not vote to uphold Obamacare, or at least the individual mandate, but if he does as martin predicts, it will be 6-3. I wish it were otherwise. · 11 minutes ago
My new fear is that Ginsburg cleared her schedule so that she can write the majority, and Roberts is prepping a fiery conservative dissent. yes it's unlikely, but...
May '10
Re: Thursday Could Be Bad for Obama. Or It Could Be Really Bad.
My guess is that Obamacare will be only partially struck down. As for the contempt hearing, I have no idea.
Tomorrow (Tuesday) might be equally important. Syria apparently fired at another Turkish aircraft. Thankfully, they missed this time. I've asked Claire for her input. Will this affect NATO's meeting?
Apr '11
Re: Thursday Could Be Bad for Obama. Or It Could Be Really Bad.
A strange thing...before the actual oral arguments, I would have been pathetically grateful just to see the mandate struck down, After the arguments and three months buildup, anything less than the entire law being thrown out feels like a defeat.
May '10
Re: Thursday Could Be Bad for Obama. Or It Could Be Really Bad.
I'm hoping for really bad.
Apr '11
Re: Thursday Could Be Bad for Obama. Or It Could Be Really Bad.
Southern Pessimist: wmartin is the true pessimist on this site. I tend to think that Obamacare will be largely overturned and Holder will be sited for comtempt of Congress. That doesn't mean it is time to get cocky as Instapundit would say. It does mean that something unexpected is happening here. For the past two months we have been watching the incredible shrinking president and not even the most optimistic conservative could have forecast that. · 5 hours ago
Edited 5 hours ago
He wasn't saying that it would be bad for us. He was saying that it could be, which is undeniably true. Far too many people go from "we're definitely going to lose" to "we're definitely going to win" and vice versa on all kinds of issues. Neither of Thursday's known unknowns are in the bag yet. Now is the time for prayer (Obamacare) and campaign calling (Holder), not for celebration. That time, inshallah, will come on Thursday.
Re: Thursday Could Be Bad for Obama. Or It Could Be Really Bad.
Was this comment meant to be in response to the other post on Ricochet's new sexy marketing slogan? :)
Re: Thursday Could Be Bad for Obama. Or It Could Be Really Bad.
Unless Holder/Obama release the documents between now and Thursday, I don't see how Holder gets any other outcome beside being held in contempt by a majority Republican Congress.
Apr '11
Re: Thursday Could Be Bad for Obama. Or It Could Be Really Bad.
Diane Ellis, Ed.
Unless Holder/Obama release the documents between now and Thursday, I don't see how Holder gets any other outcome beside being held in contempt by a majority Republican Congress. · 7 minutes ago
I'm slightly more pessimistic about the SCOTUS ruling; I think that striking down the mandate only would be a better than average outcome, and closer to the clean sweep outcome in greatness than to the also plausible clean sweep loss for us.
Regarding Holder, I don't think that the risk is that we'll fail to hold him in contempt, but that the politics of doing so will work out poorly for us. As with Obamacare, I think that the odds are in our favor, but not overwhelmingly so.