Three Maps
Mark Newman posted a bunch of interesting maps over on his site, one of which Drudge is using as his banner illustration. Here's the way Tuesday's vote broke down, by county:
But here's the way it looks when it's squished and expanded to express population densities -- i.e., where people who live in the most populated states voted:
You can see the problem. We're sweeping the states where not a lot of people live -- Texas excepted -- and they're sweeping the states where lots of people live.
So, add onto the list of things Republicans need to do to win elections: have a strategy to win the cities and especially the larger exurbs.
Finally, over at New Geography, Joel Kotkin -- who is always interesting -- has another way to look at the electorate:
We keep wondering here about what Republicans should do to win the next big election. I don't have the answer. But these maps are telling us something. We don't have to win the cities, but we do need to win the suburbs and exurbs of metropolitan areas. We don't have to win the Bailout Belt, but we do need to connect to blue collar whites in Ohio and Michigan. We don't have to win the Old Country, but we do need to connect to libertarian Live-Free-or-Die types in New Hampshire.
Lots of work to do.
- Comment (59)
- · Quote
- · UnfollowFollow (15)
Comments:
Aug '10
Re: Three Maps
Does it feel any better for eastern Washington to be included with the "empty quarter"?
Oct '10
Re: Three Maps
Mendel
Mollie Hemingway, Ed.:
...
....
But the Congressional District scheme does little to alleviate that problem. It would still involve winner-take-all jurisdictions - so instead of having 50 statewide elections with 8 of them being competitve, we would have 435 elections with 75 of them being competitive.
Candidates would still avoid any wasting time/money in any CD that is heavily slanted toward one party, and would still play the superficial popularity contest in CDs where the R/D ratio approaches 50/50. The main difference would be that rural and inner-city Ohioans and Pennsylvanians would now be ignored, while the suburbs around Chicago and Denver would be innundated.
In other words, same [expletive], different place. · 11 minutes ago
I'm not sure why that's a real problem, actually. Politicians having to pay attention to more (but not all) areas of the country is a bad thing? It's not a panacea, but it may be meaningful. And, not that this would be a reason to do it, but until all states adopt it, there's a first mover advantage. What if CA was the first state to make the change?
Mar '11
Re: Three Maps
JACK
Mendel
Mollie Hemingway, Ed.:
...
I'm not sure why that's a real problem, actually. Politicians having to pay attention to more (but not all) areas of the country is a bad thing? It's not a panacea, but it may be meaningful.
This might be true, but don't forget that most Congressional Districts are drawn to be safe seats for one party or the other. Candidates would only be interested in "swing" districts, which are exceedingly rare. But even that might get them to visit more parts of the country, even if they only concentrate on a small region in each case.
Also, each state would still have two extra electors to distribute, and depending on that is done, some other incentives might come into play.
JACK
And, not that this would be a reason to do it, but until all states adopt it, there's a first mover advantage. What if CA was the first state to make the change?
I'm not sure this is the case. Winner-take-all makes the payoff for campaigning in a state very high. Also, the partisans in non-swing states probably wouldn't want to unilaterally disarm.
Aug '10
Re: Three Maps
Keith Keystone:
The people didn't vote for this President because they like his policies. They don't understand the policies, and don't care. They voted for someone who makes them feel good and has the same skin color as they do.
Enough with the 65 year old white guys. Start putting young, attractive diverse people on the ticket. THAT is how you win Presidential elections in the 21st century. I'm not saying it is necessarily good, but it is reality. Romney lost 80% of the young (18-30) minority vote, which cost him the election.
Like I've written before, it's about winning the Low-Information Campaign.
The rational voter is a myth.
In Canuckistan, Stephen Harper's greatest increases in the popularity polls happened when:
- He's been photographed in sweater vests instead of suits.
- He released a video of himself playing piano on stage at some fundraising event.
- He's been photographed taking his kids to a hockey game.
- Etc...
Edited on November 9, 2012 at 11:57pmDec '10
Re: Three Maps
Mendel
Rob Long
we need to win the suburbs. Those are Republicans. And they're a little bit more socially liberal than the party, but I think that is okay, provided we seem like we're all living in the same world.
This is exactly my thinking as well.
Based on some of the discussion on social conservatism bouncing around the site today, I admit to some pessimism about whether the party can back off some positions (such as opposition to gay marriage) enough to lower the innate antipathy many new-exurbians may feel toward the GOP.
The suburbs are complex. People in cities believe in assertive government and social spending: without those, cities become uninhabitable. But the urban environment tends to drive out new families to the suburbs.
These new suburbanites will eventually evolve into Republicans (previous suburban migrants were Republicans before they moved). The evolution comes when they see the urban environment and values chasing them into the suburbs, threatening them both fiscally and with respect to the influences on their kids. But before that evolution is complete, many suburbanites vote their Democratic family traditions.
Dec '10
Re: Three Maps
Has anyone ever considered starving out the cities?
If the city dwellers push through energy and ecological policies that cripple agriculture and drinking water projects, they're going to find that their cities become even more hostile to sustained human life, with the cost of city living pricing out the working class that keeps the cities running. And the effort to compensate for that effect by passing living wage laws will become equally unsustainable as they drive up prices and drive out small businesses.
Aug '10
Re: Three Maps
Stuart Creque: Has anyone ever considered starving out the cities?
If the city dwellers push through energy and ecological policies that cripple agriculture and drinking water projects, they're going to find that their cities become even more hostile to sustained human life, with the cost of city living pricing out the working class that keeps the cities running. And the effort to compensate for that effect by passing living wage laws will become equally unsustainable as they drive up prices and drive out small businesses.
So, you want to turn every city into Detroit?
Mar '11
Re: Three Maps
How do we win exurban and rural areas? We could try nominating a conservative candidate. I love you my Ricochet brethren, but you're over-thinking this stuff. Mitt lost because he wasn't a winner from the get-go.
He's a great guy, but he's not a conservative. Not even a "serious" one.
Jul '12
Re: Three Maps
Most of what is now West Virginia did not support secession from Virginia. The history of this is actually pretty fascinating.
Dec '10
Re: Three Maps
Misthiocracy
Stuart Creque: Has anyone ever considered starving out the cities?
If the city dwellers push through energy and ecological policies that cripple agriculture and drinking water projects, they're going to find that their cities become even more hostile to sustained human life, with the cost of city living pricing out the working class that keeps the cities running. And the effort to compensate for that effect by passing living wage laws will become equally unsustainable as they drive up prices and drive out small businesses.
So, you want to turn every city into Detroit? · 1 hour ago
I suggest that the cities are choosing that destiny themselves. San Francisco seriously considered a proposal to drain the Hetch Hetchy reservoir -- the source of SF's drinking water and much of its electricity -- with more than 20 percent of voters in favor.
The urban voters have already decimated the Central Valley with water policy; the EPA, following the desires of urban voters, wants to regulate "dust pollution" on farms; and the saving potential of fracking in California is something the urbanites will never allow.
Jul '10
Re: Three Maps
What would the electoral college results have looked like if it was based upon congressional districts instead of winner-take-all? I actually have liked this idea for a long time, but I find any type of fundamental change gets little traction since most people can't be bothered to consider anything but the status quo.
Sep '12
Re: Three Maps
Good one, Rob. This is so fascinating. The maps are fascinating fodder for helping us fight back, and fight back we must. War is on. Breitbart declared it right before he died. He was right. It's just begun. Obama won the first battle.
Sep '10
Re: Three Maps
Perhaps a constitutional convention where we alter article 4 to allow counties to break away from states to form new ones.
Simply luring all the states in by saying that the states will collect the taxes to send to the federal government rather than send it in and hope they get it back, (even bankrupt Illinois will they need the money yesterday) will diminish the central authority.
I've found that most Americans regardless of background dislike being bullied by California & New York. Most western states can be lured in maybe even Nevada can be dragged over the hump if we entice them with getting their lands that were seized by the Feds.
The Midwest in general puts aside local squabbles if New York is involved (especially NYC That's why donations for Sandy are low), and the idea of isolating them would be please them greatly. Make the wall street vs main street into an anti manhattan meme. Local vs distant Urban tyrant.
I was under the impression Tuesday that this wasn't needed but the republic is unlikely to survive to the end of the decade. Unfortunately I didn't vote for one, I was naive.
Apr '12
Re: Three Maps
Conservatives need to find out what it would take for those voters in blue states to vote Republican. The answers might be surprising.
Aug '10
Re: Three Maps
EconTalk recently did a podcast examining the same thing; turns out places that were historically working class tend to swing left, almost regardless of what class currently lives in the buildings.
Dec '10
Re: Three Maps
PJ Kellogg:
Sound bites and gotcha moments are what won Obama his re-election. He ran a campaign of zero substance, zero specifics, zero big picture philosophy. It was all childish name calling, mockery and negative broadbrushes, not a whit of "intelligent, persuasive and positive messages."
It worked. Big time. How, I've no idea.
Dog whistles.
It works because, thanks to media cheerleaders, the Democrat party's appeals to envy and self interest are encapsulated into shorthand that means "stuff for me!" and "stick it to the rich!"
Who are 'the rich?' Who cares? I just know it's not me. They'll get what's coming to them and I'll get free stuff! Obamaphones? Yes! More taxes for rich people? Hooray!
Likewise the media, who have usurped both narratives, dog whistles an appeal for limited government and fiscal sanity into "selfish, greedy capitalists," who "don't care about [favorite special interest group]" and who want to take us back to [scariest decade you can think of]."
While Andrea Mitchell carps about Romney's efforts to gather food and blankets for the hungry and the freezing, Obama briefly shows up, then leaves, and voters and journalists swoon.
Dec '10
Re: Three Maps
Stuart Creque
Misthiocracy
Stuart Creque: Has anyone ever considered starving out the cities?
. . .
So, you want to turn every city into Detroit? · 1 hour ago
I suggest that the cities are choosing that destiny themselves. San Francisco seriously considered a proposal to drain the Hetch Hetchy reservoir -- the source of SF's drinking water and much of its electricity -- with more than 20 percent of voters in favor.
The urban voters have already decimated the Central Valley with water policy; the EPA, following the desires of urban voters, wants to regulate "dust pollution" on farms; and the saving potential of fracking in California is something the urbanites will never allow. · 8 hours ago
Isn't this why a lot of cities (Pittsburgh included) are trying to merge city and county government? As it says in this article's last paragraph:
Any merger must meet the needs of city residents, ensure adequate minority representation, "deal equitably" with 3,300 city and 6,600 county employees, and avoid saddling suburban taxpayers with the city's debt and underfunded pension plan. It is short on details as regards to addressing those challenges.
Good luck with that.
Nov '10
Re: Three Maps
Can't bring myself to think of it. Frankly, having grown up in a small town I feel an animosity to city folk. Nothing personal, and it may be a reaction to the "Flyover Country" mentality (I regard cities as "drive-through" country -- hit the freeway and get to the other side as fast as possible, or if there's a bypass ... take it).
Taking it out of the realm of gut response, I think we have a fundamental problem here. Rural america is largely the home of the makers. Urban america consists largely of takers. When you say "self-reliance" guys and gals out here, who bake their own bread, sew their own clothes grow their own vegetables, own a pickup truck for other than ornamental reasons and change its oil themselves, and know how to fix almost anything -- understand the phrase; it's infused through their lives. Urban folk think the phrase refers to carrying a concealed weapon and having a lock on the door. The vast majority of urban dwellers would starve to death if "the system" collapsed; the further into the sticks, the less they'd even notice. Conservatism's natural habitat.
Edited on November 11, 2012 at 3:52amNov '10
Re: Three Maps
I think, Rob, what conservatives need is the world's largest deprogramming project. Conservatism is basic common sense. about 60% (or maybe it's only 47%) of North America has been brainwashed and had nonsense substituted. As an educator I'll assure you it's harder to unteach something than to teach it in the first place, and we have the world's largest unteaching job ahead of us.
Fortunately the last 4 years have given us a massive head-start in how to message and communicate the conservative message, but we're still packaging and aiming it wrong. We have to make it impossible for people not to hear the conservative message and hard to reject its implications for their own lives and the way they vote. Much as I'm repulsed by city dwellers, conservatism makes sense for them too, it's just harder to see. So we need to package well, and laser-target our delivery. And stop preaching only to the choir.