"This is Turkey, and Things Can Always Get Worse"
While I was back in America, I realized that many people, if they're grasping that disturbing things are happening in Turkey at all, are missing the point. A common way of looking at it, to put things crudely, is "They're all Islamists and they always have been, they're just reverting to type."
Yes, absolutely, there are Islamists in Turkey who would like to see the country under Islamic law. But they're few and far between. What most Turks want--and what most supporters of the AKP want, what most people who voted "yes" in the recent referendum want--is stability. They want that, overwhelmingly, because they believe it's good for the economy. (And they're probably right, at least in the short-term.) They may wind up in the end getting a good dose of Islamic law in the bargain, but that's not what they're angling for.
I was talking to a Turkish friend last night about this. He was describing the attitudes of people he knew who had voted "yes." What he said tracked well with what I've heard and seen and read. "People weren't thinking about having the best constitution," he said. "They just think someone should be in charge, because if not there will be chaos, and the economy will go down the tank."
The constitutional talk is abstract to many Turks, as well it might be--after all, for example, the 1980 Turkish constitution guaranteed freedom of expression, and everyone knows that there's something of a gulf between those guarantees and reality.
People knew, in other words, that they were voting to give the AKP a lot more power. And in fact quite a few understood perfectly well that they were voting against the principle of separation of powers. But they reckoned that was a good thing, or at least the lesser of two evils. It would be far worse, in their minds, to see a serious struggle among warring Turkish power centers. That's associated--in immediate, living memory--with coups, tanks in the streets, utterly ineffectual coalition governments, hyper-inflation, economic crises that make the recent American one look like Xanadu.
I have the sense that many Turks felt, "Okay, the AKP wants all the power? Just give it to them already. Just get that settled. Let everyone stop fighting about it so we can get on with things."
Is there an Islamist overlay to this? Many Turks do feel a general solidarity with the Islamic world--"They're like us. And look, they like us!" Some, certainly, support the AKP because they think Erdoğan's really sticking it to Israel, and they think that's a good thing. But in many ways the enthusiasm for this devolves not so much from a theological understanding of that conflict as from an inchoate, smoldering anti-Westernism. Now, that's not a good thing, either. Obviously not. But it's different--in important ways, and with real consequences--from the sentiment that prompts young men to explode themselves in Copenhagen toilets en route to blowing up infidel newspapers.
It's still, I think, as it's always been, the economy above all that's driving voter behavior here. It's not even so much the sense that the AKP has really delivered on the economy, but the fear that any serious challenge to the AKP will result in chaos and the extinction of all economic hope.
Turkey is certainly becoming more and more bitterly and openly divided. But I sense the division is not truly so much between "Islamists" and "secularists" as between "afraid of Erdoğan" and "afraid of what might replace him, because this is Turkey, and things can always get worse."
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Jun '10
Re: "This is Turkey, and Things Can Always Get Worse"
If it weren't for the Islamist aspects of the Turkish situation, Claire, I'd swear you could replace "Turkey" for "Russia" here. The citizens of Russia fear chaos and don't want anymore instability, as well. Voting new people in means new turf wars and new people to pay off to run your business and the new guys may want a bigger chunk. As you say, things can always get worse. Now, at least they know who the thieves are, they get their money, and leave you alone... sort of. That's pretty much what is going on with Putin. If he leaves, the notorious "Power vertical" collapses like a house of cards. Russians view this as a strength whereas it really reveals an inherent weakness.
Re: "This is Turkey, and Things Can Always Get Worse"
Dave, I'd guess this is probably how almost all authoritarian societies work. But the "Islamism" factor is really a wild card. From today's news:
Sep '10
Re: "This is Turkey, and Things Can Always Get Worse"
And this is the problem. Regardless of motives or reasoning, Turkey is steadily heading towards a Sharia state. At that point, it's either tanks in the streets time again or submission. And if the purges of the army being reported in Western media are correct, submission looks more likely. I know you keep telling us that there is hope, but, if the majority is for stability over freedom then it is looking pretty grim.
Sep '10
Re: "This is Turkey, and Things Can Always Get Worse"
Like many issues facing us, the Turkish questions are just a little more complicated than they first appear. It breaks my heart to think my son might see the end of the Republic. Kurtulus Park is a little creepy already, police in vans push it over the top. They should use those vans instead for picking up the stray dogs.
Re: "This is Turkey, and Things Can Always Get Worse"
No, it's not. I don't see Sharia--as it's implemented in, say, Saudi Arabia--in Turkey's future, ever. I see an increasingly authoritarian state, where some domestic policies are onerously colored by Islamism--and by many other pathologies, as well, above all cronyism and corruption--but I don't ever see Turks accepting a Wahhibi or Salafist version of Islamic law. I do see a Turkey that's recklessly cooperative with Islamist states and powers. In the long run, I can't see how that won't come back to bite them. And the stability and economic growth that people are so eager for probably aren't ahead of them, either.
Re: "This is Turkey, and Things Can Always Get Worse"
Claire Berlinski, Ed.:
Turkey is certainly becoming more and more bitterly and openly divided. But I sense the division is not truly so much between "Islamists" and "secularists" as between "afraid of Erdoğan" and "afraid of what might replace him, because this is Turkey, and things can always get worse." ·
What would the alternative to Erdogan/the AKP be--what is that fearful entity that "might replace him"? The military? Another less desirable party?
May '10
Re: "This is Turkey, and Things Can Always Get Worse"
What are we looking at in Turkey when things "get worse"? Is it an Ahmadinejad kind of worse? A Baathist-style nationalism kind of worse? Or is "worse" more likely to be a Greek-style social and political trainwreck?
Jul '10
Re: "This is Turkey, and Things Can Always Get Worse"
Emily Esfahani Smith, Ed.
Claire Berlinski begin_of_the_skype_highlighting end_of_the_skype_highlighting, Ed.:
Turkey is certainly becoming more and more bitterly and openly divided. But I sense the division is not truly so much between "Islamists" and "secularists" as between "afraid of Erdoğan" and "afraid of what might replace him, because this is Turkey, and things can always get worse." ·
What would the alternative to Erdogan/the AKP be--what is that fearful entity that "might replace him"? The military? Another less desirable party? · Sep 22 at 6:45am
Can things get worse? Or were they ever worse? If so, in what way were they worse? And how did they improve under the AKP? Or did they really improve under the AKP? If so, what got better and/or what got worse? These are important questions that need to be answered.
Jun '10
Re: "This is Turkey, and Things Can Always Get Worse"
Claire, yes, true about the commonalities of authoritarian regimes. I'd be interested to know if Turks have a similar trait to Russians in this regard, i.e. Russians frequently say that they need to be "ruled" rather than govern themselves democratically. I heard this frequently from my Russian friends and colleagues. Their self-identity (or the "Russian soul") that goes back centuries and is reflected in many of the works from their most famous writers repeatedly diagnose themselves as unruly, irrational serfs that cannot function without an iron fist. This type of self-loathing inevitably nurtures authoritarianism. Does this attitude exist in Turkey, as well, or is a different force at play?
Re: "This is Turkey, and Things Can Always Get Worse"
Yes. You've put your finger on something important--a kind of self-loathing, or perhaps lack of political self-confidence. The roots of this are complicated and interesting. It certainly has something to do with democracy being a very young tradition, and imposed top-down rather than emerging organically. I'd even say it has to do with the Turkish family structure, where parents encourage very little autonomy and self-sufficiency in their kids. Fascinating point. Important one, too.
Re: "This is Turkey, and Things Can Always Get Worse"
Emily Esfahani Smith, Ed.
Claire Berlinski, Ed.:
Turkey is certainly becoming more and more bitterly and openly divided. But I sense the division is not truly so much between "Islamists" and "secularists" as between "afraid of Erdoğan" and "afraid of what might replace him, because this is Turkey, and things can always get worse." ·
What would the alternative to Erdogan/the AKP be--what is that fearful entity that "might replace him"? The military? Another less desirable party? · Sep 22 at 6:45am
The fear is any of the above, or chaos, or just something bad. And what's interesting, culturally, is the pessimism--the sense that chances are, it will be something bad, the sense that if something is sort-of working, don't try to change it, because something a lot worse could happen. A very pervasive cultural characteristic, I've noticed.
Re: "This is Turkey, and Things Can Always Get Worse"
Matthew Gilley
What are we looking at in Turkey when things "get worse"? Is it an Ahmadinejad kind of worse? A Baathist-style nationalism kind of worse? Or is "worse" more likely to be a Greek-style social and political trainwreck? · Sep 22 at 6:59am
What I'm fearing and what Turkish people are fearing aren't necessarily the same thing. I fear--at the extreme--severe authoritarianism and a foreign policy misadventure that leads to Turkey's involvement in an Apocalyptic regional war, and possibly a civil war as well. My fear is Mussolini. What I think many Turks fear is another economic crash, endless grinding poverty and chaos in the streets. These are very, very broad generalizations, of course. "What Turks think" is about as broad a spectrum as "What Americans think."
May '10
Re: "This is Turkey, and Things Can Always Get Worse"
Fear doesn't require particulars. People are often afraid for vague reasons. The same is true of confidence.
Sadly, every move toward centralized power makes further centralization easier and more likely. Correct?
Okan Altiparmak
Can things get worse? Or were they ever worse? If so, in what way were they worse? And how did they improve under the AKP? Or did they really improve under the AKP? If so, what got better and/or what got worse? These are important questions that need to be answered. · Sep 22 at 11:16am
And here I thought answers was your job! ;)
Are Turks as clueless as we are about where Turkish government is headed?
Aug '10
Re: "This is Turkey, and Things Can Always Get Worse"
Claire, I'd like to know what you think of Mark Steyn's thesis that there is a demographic split between the urban secular culture and the more rural religious culture, and that the latter are simply outbreeding--and therefore outvoting--the former.
Re: "This is Turkey, and Things Can Always Get Worse"
The urban/rural idea isn't quite right, because the past few decades have seen massive migration from rural areas to the cities. So demographically, the culture of the cities now reflects (in many neighborhoods) that of the rural areas. It's hard to get a handle on what's going on, demographically; data show that in Turkey as everywhere else, when people become wealthier and more urbanized, they have fewer children. But given what I just said--that rural people are moving en masse to the cities, and getting somewhat wealthier in them--it's hard to say what this implies. Erdogan is certainly encouraging Turks to have tons of babies, very openly. He obviously agrees with Steyn.
Aug '10
Re: "This is Turkey, and Things Can Always Get Worse"
Claire Berlinski, Ed.
The urban/rural idea isn't quite right, because the past few decades have seen massive migration from rural areas to the cities. So demographically, the culture of the cities now reflects (in many neighborhoods) that of the rural areas. It's hard to get a handle on what's going on, demographically; data show that in Turkey as everywhere else, when people become wealthier and more urbanized, they have fewer children. But given what I just said--that rural people are moving en masse to the cities, and getting somewhat wealthier in them--it's hard to say what this implies. Erdogan is certainly encouraging Turks to have tons of babies, very openly. He obviously agrees with Steyn.
It certainly seems true that secularization = lower fertility, so I find it persuasive that religion has a natural evolutionary advantage (which if the religion is fundamentalist Islam isn't a Good Thing). In this case, I guess the question, then, is whether moving to the city tends to secularize people.