This November: A Correction or an Earthquake?
Peter Robinson ·
Sep 23, 2010 at 4:04pm
Daniel Henninger's column in the Wall Street Journal today gets at just the discussion Paul Rahe, Ricochet members, and I have been having over the last 48 hours or so. So let me quote Dan--and then ask everybody here at Ricochet the simplest of questions:
It has become clear that this is not just another remarkable off-year election in which the parties flip political control. It isn't 1994, when the Gingrich insurgency won back the House from the Democrats. It is bigger than that.
True or false?
- Comment (44)
- · Quote
- · UnfollowFollow (2)
Comments :
Sep '10
Re: This November: A Correction or an Earthquake?
True.
May '10
Re: This November: A Correction or an Earthquake?
I also vote TRUE.
Jul '10
Re: This November: A Correction or an Earthquake?
False.
This isn't a re-alignment, it's a reaction.
And just as the energy driving the 1994 reaction faded under feckless Republican leadership, so, too, might this.
There is much, much more work left to do.
Jun '10
Re: This November: A Correction or an Earthquake?
The Contract with America was signed (on the steps of the Capitol) on September 27th of 1994, so it came rather late in the campaign. It wasn't something that rose up from the grassroots over several months, like today's Tea Parties. I think the main purpose was to provide some proven talking points to the more inexperienced 1994 candidates. If the 1994 Contract with America had that large impact, over just the space of a month, imagine what can happen this year.
May '10
Re: This November: A Correction or an Earthquake?
Lord, how I hope it's true.
But all I know is what I read on the internets.
Jul '10
Re: This November: A Correction or an Earthquake?
Things have become so bad that the independent voter is thinking about politics for the first time since Obama, through some malign misalignment of the planets, was put into the White House. They have naturally reached the same conclusion conservatives did a long time ago. When times are good again -- if they ever are -- they will drift away into indifference again.
Jul '10
Re: This November: A Correction or an Earthquake?
True. There's more at stake than there was in 94.
May '10
Re: This November: A Correction or an Earthquake?
A correction and an earthquake, Peter.
May '10
Re: This November: A Correction or an Earthquake?
True. This time it's the people beginning to take back the power they've been busy ceding for decades.
But it's only a beginning, and the final outcome remains very much in doubt. My fear is that it will get ugly, perhaps violent, before it's over.
Jul '10
Re: This November: A Correction or an Earthquake?
Kenneth: False.
This isn't a re-alignment, it's a reaction.
And just as the energy driving the 1994 reaction faded under feckless Republican leadership, so, too, might this.
There is much, much more work left to do. · Sep 23 at 4:22pm
Third time this week, Kenneth. A BIG +1.
Jul '10
Re: This November: A Correction or an Earthquake?
It's clearly something bigger than 1994. The question is, will it lead to complacency? My concern is that a big win will lead people to think it's over, not unlike what Democrats thought two short years ago. It's not enough to win one election cycle. We need to finally start reducing the size and misappropriated power of the federal government.
Jul '10
Re: This November: A Correction or an Earthquake?
Michael Tee
Kenneth: False.
This isn't a re-alignment, it's a reaction.
And just as the energy driving the 1994 reaction faded under feckless Republican leadership, so, too, might this.
There is much, much more work left to do. · Sep 23 at 4:22pm
Third time this week, Kenneth. A BIG +1. · Sep 23 at 4:52pm
Can I get a hug? Just a little one...
May '10
Re: This November: A Correction or an Earthquake?
True.
The past couple years have completely transformed the way countless conservative voters perceive politics and government in general. Obama and the Congress over which he presides have forced many Americans to question their most basic political beliefs for the first time. We've gone from talking about lowering taxes to questioning the very existence of entire agencies. We've seen government pass bills without reading them, seize car companies while stealing from the shareholders, and "deem" a Congressional budget passed. Many things that "couldn't happen in America" did.
However, this energy for change can be squandered. It can be betrayed by the GOP, if they lack the interest or the courage. I'm reminded of Claire's posts about Turkish earthquakes. The question isn't if the shake-up is happening, but how we'll respond. The question is whether we'll finally face the fundamental problems or continue ignoring the foundation until everything comes crashing down during even greater trials.
Remember, we repeated all the mistakes that led us into this recession, and we're not even out of it yet. Round 2 is coming.
Jul '10
Re: This November: A Correction or an Earthquake?
No worries Kenneth. I'll get right on that.
May '10
Re: This November: A Correction or an Earthquake?
True, though...
...not because there's been a huge ideological swing among Americans. A majority has been center/center-right for some time now. The Joe-the-Plumber gaffe was a gaffe, afterall, and not a campaign platform. But Obama and the Dems have governed consistent with Obama's gaffe, not his campaign. That's a betrayal, and hence the wave. And since the betrayal is more severe than in '94, so shall the wave be. It's quantitatively different this time.
But it will also be qualitatively different, for three reasons:
1) Obama is not Clinton: Obama, consistent with his constitution, will likely double-down on the betrayal in a way that Clinton did not, feeding the wave and, hopefully, delivering us the presidency and an even stronger Congress.
2) Math: With this new governing powerhouse , Republicans will be forced to deal with the mathematical realities of the welfare state. It's unsustainable--ask Europe--and since Americans will not tolerate massive new taxation, rolling back government will be the only alternative. We won't want to; we'll have to.
3) New Republican leadership: The Young Guns and our next-generation governors get it. They really do.
Edited on Sep 23, 2010 at 7:42pmSep '10
Re: This November: A Correction or an Earthquake?
It's can't be bigger than '94 in this sense, '94 gave the GOP control of the House for the first time in forty years, if memory serves. It was almost as if the dog caught the car and then said,'now what the hell do I do.' We'd better know this time around or we might not get another chance.
Re: This November: A Correction or an Earthquake?
True, of course. But it is also true that the Republicans can blow it.
Jul '10
Re: This November: A Correction or an Earthquake?
Average Citizen: True.
We’re not gonna’ take it anymore! (with no apologies to Twisted Sister.)
We have had it with politicians who think they are there to tell us how to live, and who spend more time listening to the New York Times than the people who sent them to Washington. This is a Representative Government; Start Representing and quit Dictating.
.
Republican Establishment: False
Nothing special about this election.
Oh yes, we’ll win seats, but we’ll make sure to co-opt the new people those rubes in the Tea Parties send to Washington. We’ll also maintain the decorum and be cordial to the Democrats and be sure that any advantage we have is negotiated away before we begin compromising our values.
Jul '10
Re: This November: A Correction or an Earthquake?
False. We still see Americans clinging to their government benefits while at the same time calling for smaller government. The healthcare bill worked against the Democrats because people who already have insurance were not convinced that this bill would help them. Further, the bailouts and stimulus have been perceived as highly ineffective. We all agree that these are the two main factors behind the genesis of the tea party movement.
The thing is that opposition to the healthcare bill and the administration's economic management are based on a perception of voters individually not having gained personally from them. This is a completely valid reason not to support a government's actions, but it puts the role of ideology and philosophy about the size and role of government secondary to these question of individual benefit. That is why I do not think this is more than just a reaction to incompetent government.
I see the electorate thinking first and foremost about their own interests (as they rightly should), but putting the philosophical issues that would portend a true reawakening behind and subordinate to personal interests.
Re: This November: A Correction or an Earthquake?
Philosophically? True. In reality? It all depends on who gets the vote out. There's more people than relying on government benefits than in '94 and if the Dems fill buses with them and get them to the polls, or at least say they did, I don't even see the insurgency of '94. I hope I'm wrong.