Third Note on China: Trouble on the Horizon
Peter Robinson is right to draw our attention to China. The greeting prepared for Secretary Defense Robert Gates when he arrived in China earlier this week was a real eye-opener, and it may be remembered long after everyone has forgotten the clownish attempt on the part of The New York Times, Paul Krugman, CNN, MSNBC, the legacy media more generally, and the left-liberal blogosphere to exploit the massacre in Tucson in such a fashion as to shut down public debate in this country.
As I have argued in detail in another venue, the evident belligerence of the Chinese and their decision on such an occasion to test-fly a stealth fighter larger than any that we have in the works ought to be a wake-up call for the United States. “In the Pacific,” I argued,
we are witnessing a dramatic shift in the balance of power. Earlier this year, the Chinese fielded missile forces capable of annihilating in a matter of minutes all but one of our bases in Asia. The handwriting is on the wall. In a few years, they will have missiles capable of eliminating the last of these. This year, they also fielded missile systems capable of finding and sinking our aircraft carriers in the western Pacific. In 2009, when Robert Gates cut back radically on the budget for acquiring in great numbers F-22 stealth fighters, he reportedly did so on the presumption that the Chinese would not be able to produce stealth fighters in any number before 2020. He was dead wrong.
In effect, there is a one-sided arms race going on; the Chinese are beginning to bully their neighbors; and we are for the most part simply averting our gaze.
In my judgment, wishful thinking in these matters is the natural propensity of liberal, commercial polities. When guided by those focused on economic growth, such polities tend to prefer tax cuts to the maintenance in peacetime of large, expensive defense establishments. When guided by those intent on funding ambitious social welfare programs, they tend to sacrifice guns for butter. During the Cold War, we managed to avoid the worst. But, in its aftermath, we cut way back, and there is every reason to fear that – in the current fiscal crisis – we will do so to an even greater degree.
Time and again, from the late 17th century on, when war came, liberal polities have been caught unprepared. Is this destined to be our fate as well?
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Jun '10
Re: Third Note on China: Trouble on the Horizon
You either prepare for war, or you provoke war by being unprepared.
May '10
Re: Third Note on China: Trouble on the Horizon
America is always unprepared for the next war. Is there a war we were prepared for?
Jun '10
Re: Third Note on China: Trouble on the Horizon
Cold War. It's why it was cold.
May '10
Re: Third Note on China: Trouble on the Horizon
I love China and the Chinese people, language and culture. I studied Chinese in college and have spent months studying and travelling in China.
That said, I believe we are headed for an inevitable confrontation with China. I don't like it, and I feel it's tragic, but we ought to prepare. And we ought to learn to be self-sufficient as a nation, not allowing them to undermine our domestic strategic industries (manufacturing, especially high-tech) and resources (example: rare-earth metals production).
Free trade is great on paper, and in a perfect, peaceful world, may make everyone wealthier on average. But in the real, messy world where laws are different from nation to nation, where some governments strategically try to undermine us and steal our industries, technical knowledge, and jobs, I see the need for strategic leadership to ensure we can survive and thrive as a nation even if we were to face a regrettable war with China.
China is on the rise. To some, their dominance appears inevitable and unstoppable. But they have their own share of problems, and we have our own unique strengths-- if we can overcome our self-inflicted weaknesses.
Edited on Jan 15, 2011 at 11:53amRe: Third Note on China: Trouble on the Horizon
etoiledunord
Cold War. It's why it was cold. · Jan 13 at 8:15am
Beautifully put, Etoile.
Re: Third Note on China: Trouble on the Horizon
Chris Deleon:
That said, I believe we are headed for an inevitable confrontation with China. I don't like it, and I feel it's tragic, but we ought to prepare. And we ought to learn to be self-sufficient as a nation, not allowing them to undermine our domestic strategic industries (manufacturing, especially high-tech) and resources (example: rare-earth metals production).
Free trade is great on paper, and in a perfect, peaceful world, may make everyone wealthier on average. But in the real, messy world where laws are different from nation to nation, where some governments strategically try to undermine us and steal our industries, technical knowledge, and jobs, I see the need for strategic leadership to ensure we can survive and thrive as a nation even if we were to face a regrettable war with China.
China is on the rise. To some, their dominance appears inevitable and unstoppable. But they have their own share of problems, and we have our own unique strengths-- if we can overcome our self-inflicted weaknesses. · Jan 13 at 8:46am
Amen.
May '10
Re: Third Note on China: Trouble on the Horizon
Meanwhile, it seems they could hit us with cyberstrikes from now til Judgment Day without fear of a response.
If they hit Ricochet, I'm calling my Congressman!
May '10
Re: Third Note on China: Trouble on the Horizon
Yes, I'm afraid so. US timidity lowers the cost for Chinese aggression.
May '10
Re: Third Note on China: Trouble on the Horizon
Paul A. Rahe
Chris Deleon:
That said, I believe we are headed for an inevitable confrontation with China. I don't like it, and I feel it's tragic, but we ought to prepare...I see the need for strategic leadership to ensure we can survive and thrive as a nation even if we were to face a regrettable war with China.
What kind of war do you envision? Certainly not a nuclear conflict. I think the economic interests of China and the U.S. make any kind of conflict extremely unlikely, for conflict obstructs the fulfillment of our economic interests. We are close trading partners; war would jeopardize this mutually beneficial relationship. The Chinese are expanding their armed forces but they do not want a war with us.
Edited on Jan 13, 2011 at 11:02amJul '10
Re: Third Note on China: Trouble on the Horizon
What we're headed for is a long war for resources - energy and raw materials.
For the time being, it's a war without armed conflict, but the Chinese are busily preparing for the next phase, while we squander our military resources on nation-building.
Sep '10
Re: Third Note on China: Trouble on the Horizon
If we are not ready to defend ourselves then our defense establishment's priorities are a mess. We outspend them 5 to 1 in money and 2 to one as % of GDP. I don't believe the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan will move the needle on this appreciably. If they are anywhere near parity now, we are really confused.
In am more afraid of our credit card addiciton than of China. 20 years from now how will we pay for ANY defense when all the money goes to interest payments (including to China) and entitlements. We will do ourselves a bigger service by tackling entitlement spending, even if it means cuts in defense. In a perfect world Defense can stay pat, but in order to get anywhere, I suspect all sides will have to agree to cuts.
Last thing. Doing nothing to US gov't spending is not an option if you want to preserve our ability to defend ourselves a generation from now.
Jun '10
Re: Third Note on China: Trouble on the Horizon
etoiledunord
Cold War. It's why it was cold. · Jan 13 at 8:15am
Ooh... snap.
Jun '10
Re: Third Note on China: Trouble on the Horizon
Beautifully put, concise... aside from addressing the China issue so well, Mr. Deleon's comment is a perfect argument for the 200-word limit. In a good way.
May '10
Re: Third Note on China: Trouble on the Horizon
Michael Labeit
Paul A. Rahe
Chris Deleon:
That said, I believe we are headed for an inevitable confrontation with China. I don't like it, and I feel it's tragic, but we ought to prepare...I see the need for strategic leadership to ensure we can survive and thrive as a nation even if we were to face a regrettable war with China.
What kind of war do you envision? Certainly not a nuclear conflict. I think the economic interests of China and the U.S. make any kind of conflict extremely unlikely, for conflict obstructs the fulfillment of our economic interests. We are close trading partners; war would jeopardize this mutually beneficial relationship. The Chinese are expanding their armed forces but they do not want a war with us. · Jan 13 at 10:58am
Edited on Jan 13 at 11:02 am
It's my feeling that any future conflict with China will pivot around Taiwan - China will take a provocative step and challenge us to do something about it.
Jul '10
Re: Third Note on China: Trouble on the Horizon
Kervinlee
Michael Labeit
Paul A. Rahe
Chris Deleon:
That said, I believe we are headed for an inevitable confrontation with China. I don't like it, and I feel it's tragic, but we ought to prepare...I see the need for strategic leadership to ensure we can survive and thrive as a nation even if we were to face a regrettable war with China.
What kind of war do you envision? Certainly not a nuclear conflict. I think the economic interests of China and the U.S. make any kind of conflict extremely unlikely, for conflict obstructs the fulfillment of our economic interests. We are close trading partners; war would jeopardize this mutually beneficial relationship. The Chinese are expanding their armed forces but they do not want a war with us. · Jan 13 at 10:58am
Edited on Jan 13 at 11:02 am
It's my feeling that any future conflict with China will pivot around Taiwan - China will take a provocative step and challenge us to do something about it. · Jan 13 at 12:04pm
Precisely my point in a member post a couple of weeks ago, where I posited that Taiwan is none of our business.
May '10
Re: Third Note on China: Trouble on the Horizon
Ross Conatser's final paragraph above reminds me of something Niall Ferguson once said, which I will paraphrase here: powers which build a comprehensive welfare state tend to eviscerate their military in the process. As the politicians and the populace become engorged on domestic spending, defense becomes more and more an optional thing, until it becomes a luxury that the nation can no longer afford.
Edited on Jan 13, 2011 at 1:00pmDec '10
Re: Third Note on China: Trouble on the Horizon
Michael Labeit
What kind of war do you envision? Certainly not a nuclear conflict. I think the economic interests of China and the U.S. make any kind of conflict extremely unlikely, for conflict obstructs the fulfillment of our economic interests. We are close trading partners; war would jeopardize this mutually beneficial relationship. The Chinese are expanding their armed forces but they do not want a war with us.
You forget that not all people are rational at all times, and other factors can influence their lives to a greater extent than economic advancement.
Would a hard line communist general in the PLA have any concern at all about the flow of commerce between the US and China, if it should become opportune to retake Taiwan by force? I think not. The degree to which their Prime Minister Hu was surprised by their fighter roll out also suggests that the military increasingly doesn't care how their actions are received by their civilian counterparts.
That does not bode well for continued peace in the Pacific.
May '10
Re: Third Note on China: Trouble on the Horizon
Ross Conatser: ... I am more afraid of our credit card addiciton than of China. 20 years from now how will we pay for ANY defense when all the money goes to interest payments (including to China) and entitlements...
Doing nothing to US gov't spending is not an option if you want to preserve our ability to defend ourselves a generation from now.
Amen to that. The two issues are actually quite interrelated. Drastic action is needed, not just a mere course correction, but a complete turnaround.
Not going to happen with this generation of pols (and perhaps with this generation of the American people).
We'll unfortunately probably have to have a much worse financial crisis, and perhaps a war, before we do what is needed. If it's not too late by then. It sounds pessimistic, yet I do have optimism that once we get on the right course we still have great strength and potential as a nation. It may just require a much greater crisis to pull it out of us.
May '10
Re: Third Note on China: Trouble on the Horizon
Our military budget is between $600 and $700 billion per year.
Our interest payments alone (at today's low rates) are $400 billion per year, and growing rapidly. These could easily balloon to $900 billion (or even over $1 trillion) almost overnight if interest rates spiked-- say, if the government tries to inflate its way out of the debt.
Entitlements are around $1.7 trillion this year, and are growing almost exponentially. They will likely pass $2T by 2013.
China's military budget (that we know of) is around $100 billion per year. But it's not apples to apples, as their costs (for labor, etc.) are much lower. They also likely have less existing military infrastructure to support and can throw a greater proportion into development of new weapons designed specifically to overcome our current strategic strengths.
If you think about it, the interest on our debt could pay for China's military expenditures four times over! Of course China "only" holds about $900B of our debt, so that is just a thought experiment, but it's quite revealing.
May '10
Re: Third Note on China: Trouble on the Horizon
CoolHand
Michael Labeit
You forget that not all people are rational at all times, and other factors can influence their lives to a greater extent than economic advancement.
Would a hard line communist general in the PLA have any concern at all about the flow of commerce between the US and China, if it should become opportune to retake Taiwan by force? I think not. The degree to which their Prime Minister Hu was surprised by their fighter roll out also suggests that the military increasingly doesn't care how their actions are received by their civilian counterparts.
Given the draconian punishments doled out to misbehaving politicians, I can't envision an ardent Chinese general provoking a conflict with the U.S. without orders from the Party. What good is Taiwan if the U.S. lays waste to the Chinese military?